China's economy is most likely going through a catastrophe. The Chinese migrants may be a sign..

[Spence]

From what I read, is that Mexico's labor market is just as skilled in manufacturing as China, possibly more (according to the article I read) and for a 3rd of the cost.


With that being said, we still heavily embedded with China, but Mexico been taking a piece of the pie - mainly due to China's aging population and lack of young people to support said elders.

Well, that plus boxing wants another covid situation with shipping containers stuck at sea for months.

 

[UpAndComing]

Brehs better find a way to invest in the global south now

you're right, a lot of ex-pats be buying up properties in places like Mexico, Costa Rica, etc.

I'm interested now. How can someone start getting involved in investing in Real Estate in Mexico?
Does being an American citizen give you an advantage?

 

[RageKage]

I'm interested now. How can someone start getting involved in investing in Real Estate in Mexico?
Does being an American citizen give you an advantage?

Buying property outside of the US, find yourself someone familiar with the laws. They differ wildly across the globe

Real Estate Ownership in Mexico - Owning Property in Mexico

Investing in Mexico Real Estate Mexican Property Trusts (Fideicomiso) Capital Gains in Mexico Manifesting your Construction The History of Mexican Land Investing in Mexico Real Estate

www.snellrealestate.com

 

[Family Lives Matter]

UK major cities have become.little china over the past few months I knew I wasn't imagining this shyt

 

[Dr. Acula]

Really good article so far. This Middle East conflict is killing us right now and Republicans taking advantage of it.

Asia is much more important to U.S. interests than the Middle East

We need to prioritize, and our priorities should be clear.

www.noahpinion.blog

To the Noah Smith guy point



Let's say China is purposely tanking the real estate sector in order to decouple the economy from it. They are willing to take the economic hit for a long term goal of shifting to more high tech industries like Chip manufacturing and tech. This shifting things on a dime is something authoritarian regimes can do that western democratic societies can't do as easily with government bureaucracy getting in the way with processes. Still, building up these industries take time and China currently have a high unemployment rate among college educated young people who may be "too educated" to want to work in factories but also may have no been educated to work in say chip fabrication. A large amount of their middle class built their wealth on real estate investment and they will feel the pain of the decline of that industry even if it's by design. In the time it takes them to shift to a new paradigm, are these individuals really going to stick around and wait to see if they can regain their wealth and quality of life in the new system? I doubt it and it will lead to a sort of brain drain in the interim. China fans and believers in their new way of doing things think otherwise but we will see.

I think we will see a continuation and even increase in more and more of middle class Chinese fleeing. They aren't going to sit and wait and hope on a prayer that the new system will work out for them. They will feel the pain now and act accordingly. They will go where they can maintain a good quality of life with their skills and wealth now. Not wait around to find a spot in the new Chinese system.

 

[IIVI]

To the Noah Smith guy point



Let's say China is purposely tanking the real estate sector in order to decouple the economy from it. They are willing to take the economic hit for a long term goal of shifting to more high tech industries like Chip manufacturing and tech. This shifting things on a dime is something authoritarian regimes can do that western democratic societies can't do as easily with government bureaucracy getting in the way with processes. Still, building up these industries take time and China currently have a high unemployment rate among college educated young people who may be "too educated" to want to work in factories but also may have no been educated to work in say chip fabrication. A large amount of their middle class built their wealth on real estate investment and they will feel the pain of the decline of that industry even if it's by design. In the time it takes them to shift to a new paradigm, are these individuals really going to stick around and wait to see if they can regain their wealth and quality of life in the new system? I doubt it and it will lead to a sort of brain drain in the interim. China fans and believers in their new way of doing things think otherwise but we will see.

I think we will see a continuation and even increase in more and more of middle class Chinese fleeing. They aren't going to sit and wait and hope on a prayer that the new system will work out for them. They will feel the pain now and act accordingly. They will go where they can maintain a good quality of life with their skills and wealth now. Not wait around to find a spot in the new Chinese system.

Oh I've definitely said before on here the big problem for both us and China is that their talent wants to leave.

It's big problem to China for obvious reasons, but it's also a big problem for our educated because companies are doing this now (and a bigger problem as our ABET-accreditation for engineering schools has expanded internationally to allow more competition for our STEM roles):

The fact they're putting Chinese Universities over the mass majority of our universities can't be a good thing overall, especially considering how big their population is. These companies will definitely take advantage of the export in talent from somewhere else at our expense. It's like energy: it'll displace and go somewhere else.

Regarding chips and hardware, it's very well known here those jobs are being outsourced to China/Taiwan, but many may actually be heading to Mexico as well (which still isn't good for our EE/CE grads). Good discussions here (I'm graduating in EE soon so I've had an interest in this):

I have worked as a hardware engineer for over a decade, and IMO it's outsourcing. Since I joined the company, I have been seeing jobs being moved overseas step by step. At first it was the customer engineers, which made sense since most of our customers were in China. And later test engineers. OK, you don't need to pay high for button pushers. And then firmware engineers. Right now, hardware engineers.

Well, supply and demand. The center of hardware is now Asia and it probably not going to change. But actually so many EE graduates are working as Machine Learning Engineers right now. And if you can place yourself in a performance-heavy ML job, that can work. We all had the same question but don't stress.

 

[chkmeout]

The fact they're putting Chinese Universities over the mass majority of our universities

I only see two Chinese universities....

 

[IIVI]

I only see two Chinese universities....

Those two Chinese Universities are listed but how many state schools or thousands of other U.S colleges were listed?

That means they hold those graduates to a higher regard than the mass majority of U.S schools. That wasn't really a thing one or two decades ago.

So if they don't get those Cal Tech or MIT grads, instead of moving to maybe your USC's, University of Michigan's, etc. they're looking at Chinese Universities (or immediate local schools they have agreements with).

That's actually one thing I've learned about STEM and Tech is there's a hierarchy for most recruiters: it's top schools, then all other schools (basically all bundled together with ABET), then those with no degrees. If those top schools now are international, the competition gets really overwhelming - especially when many can attend those universities for free while our grads have $80k of student debt from a "lesser" mid-tier school like The University of Oregon.

 

[chkmeout]

Those two Chinese Universities are listed but how many state schools or thousands of other U.S colleges were listed?

That means they hold those graduates to a higher regard than the mass majority of U.S schools. That wasn't really a thing one or two decades ago.

So if they don't get those Cal Tech or MIT grads, instead of moving to maybe your USC's, University of Michigan's, etc. they're looking at Chinese Universities (or immediate local schools they have agreements with).

That's actually one thing I've learned about STEM and Tech is there's a hierarchy for most recruiters: it's top schools, then all other schools (basically all bundled together with ABET), then those with no degrees.

Ummmmm it's always been that way....

 

[IIVI]

Ummmmm it's always been that way....

Not necessarily and not nearly on the scale it is today.

Look at the official dates many non-US school got their ABET accreditation (go to Search By Category and apply Country filters):

Find Programs - ABET

www.abet.org

Many of these schools were given ABET-accreditation in the mid to late-2010's and they're now flooding the market, in America.

ABET is a filter for engineer hires and was primarily a US standard saying a school has met the golden seal of approval with regards to education requirements in whatever field of engineering that's being audited. If your engineering degree isn't from an ABET-accredited school, it's basically worth a piece of paper to many companies (unless you went to Stanford, MIT, Cal Tech, those Chinese schools, etc.). It's why we used to say "our engineers are better than the engineers from <this other country>" because they met a qualitative standard (ABET).

Now someone from Brazil, Mexico, Colombia, etc. can graduate from an ABET-accredited international school in their country, meet the same standard and checkmark the same filter (and attend those schools for free with zero debt).

That competition didn't exist in the mid 2000's because those schools' grads weren't considered as they didn't have that ABET stamp. This is the first generation really dealing with that magnitude of influx of international competition. A lot of our grads are holding STEM degrees with a lot of debt because international talent (with no debt) are getting those jobs.

Some of those schools have only got accredited in 2020's so now anybody graduating after that date has a lot more competition to contend with. Only more international schools will meet that criteria over time as well. Soon enough a lot of those foreigners who have college degrees but are driving Uber and Lyft will have ABET accreditation.

 

[Apollo Creed]

I'm interested now. How can someone start getting involved in investing in Real Estate in Mexico?
Does being an American citizen give you an advantage?

Cash is king overseas, being American means people will listen due to the assumption you have access to capital

 

[IIVI]

This is honestly why it's not all that important to us. Whatever China will/won't struggle with are things that most likely won't matter to us this by the time we die.

Even so, there are so many ways to solve/counteract that it won't matter much with A.I and the like.

 

[Piff Perkins]

To the Noah Smith guy point



Let's say China is purposely tanking the real estate sector in order to decouple the economy from it. They are willing to take the economic hit for a long term goal of shifting to more high tech industries like Chip manufacturing and tech. This shifting things on a dime is something authoritarian regimes can do that western democratic societies can't do as easily with government bureaucracy getting in the way with processes. Still, building up these industries take time and China currently have a high unemployment rate among college educated young people who may be "too educated" to want to work in factories but also may have no been educated to work in say chip fabrication. A large amount of their middle class built their wealth on real estate investment and they will feel the pain of the decline of that industry even if it's by design. In the time it takes them to shift to a new paradigm, are these individuals really going to stick around and wait to see if they can regain their wealth and quality of life in the new system? I doubt it and it will lead to a sort of brain drain in the interim. China fans and believers in their new way of doing things think otherwise but we will see.

I think we will see a continuation and even increase in more and more of middle class Chinese fleeing. They aren't going to sit and wait and hope on a prayer that the new system will work out for them. They will feel the pain now and act accordingly. They will go where they can maintain a good quality of life with their skills and wealth now. Not wait around to find a spot in the new Chinese system.

If shifting to chip manufacturing was so easy they would have done it already. It's not a coincidence that much of this has happened after the passing of the CHIPS Act. By removing American talent and firms from China, they're already struggling local production of semiconductors took a massive hit. About 80% of their semiconductors are currently imported. I expect that to rise. There is no magic bullet here, or any secret Chinese plan. They aren't playing 4D chess. They're losing.

The thing people aren't talking about is that covid is still running wild in parts of China, and there have been massive lockdowns that are crippling the economy. It's not as bad as it was 1-2 years ago, when the shutdowns were fukking over US car companies waiting on parts, but it hasn't been solved. There really is no happy ending here for China. Aging population, entire sectors failing as the government fails to prop them up efficiently, and military struggles as they watch the US dismantle a so-called superpower via a proxy war (Russia) and command shipping lanes. Just a couple months ago they purged military officials after a failed weapons program resulted in them having a bunch of deficient missiles.

I'm not worried about China invading Taiwan. I don't think they will, for the simple fact that they cannot. I'm not even 100% convinced the US could pull off the type of amphibious invasion required to subdue Taiwan. The better option, and the one I'd imagine Xi is convinced will work, is simply waiting for cultural integration.