Coronavirus Thread: Worldwide Pandemic

BK The Great

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Social distancing until 2022 :damn:



Some degree of social distancing may still be needed in the US until 2022 to prevent large outbreaks of coronavirus, according to a group of Harvard disease experts.

Researchers from Harvard’s T.H. Chan School of Public Health made the unsettling prediction Tuesday in the journal Science.

The group looked at various computer models to simulate how the virus might spread over the next five years.

The models considered whether the virus was seasonal, how long immunity might last for recovered patients, and the “intensity and timing of control measures,” — and based on the growing number of cases around the globe, researchers said it’s unlikely that the virus will be eliminated soon, according to the report.

Social distancing may be needed from time to time to lessen the burden on hospitals if the virus sticks around, the report said.

“Under current critical care capacities, however, the overall duration of the SARS-CoV-2 epidemic could last into 2022, requiring social distancing measures to be in place between 25% and 75% of that time,” researchers said.

Researchers found that too-strict social distancing could actually drag things out by slowing the formation of herd immunity. In one scenario that assumed 20 weeks of strict control measures and extensive social distancing, a resurgence followed the lifting of control measures that was nearly as bad as the peak of an uncontrolled epidemic.

“The social distancing was so effective that virtually no population immunity was built,” researchers wrote.

There was a resurgence when the control measures were lifted under each model, and researchers don’t endorse one path, they said.

“We do not take a position on the advisability of these scenarios given the economic burden that sustained distancing may impose, but we note the potentially catastrophic burden on the healthcare system that is predicted if distancing is poorly effective and-or not sustained for long enough,” researchers wrote.
 

The ADD

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Social distancing until 2022 :damn:



Some degree of social distancing may still be needed in the US until 2022 to prevent large outbreaks of coronavirus, according to a group of Harvard disease experts.

Researchers from Harvard’s T.H. Chan School of Public Health made the unsettling prediction Tuesday in the journal Science.

The group looked at various computer models to simulate how the virus might spread over the next five years.

The models considered whether the virus was seasonal, how long immunity might last for recovered patients, and the “intensity and timing of control measures,” — and based on the growing number of cases around the globe, researchers said it’s unlikely that the virus will be eliminated soon, according to the report.

Social distancing may be needed from time to time to lessen the burden on hospitals if the virus sticks around, the report said.

“Under current critical care capacities, however, the overall duration of the SARS-CoV-2 epidemic could last into 2022, requiring social distancing measures to be in place between 25% and 75% of that time,” researchers said.

Researchers found that too-strict social distancing could actually drag things out by slowing the formation of herd immunity. In one scenario that assumed 20 weeks of strict control measures and extensive social distancing, a resurgence followed the lifting of control measures that was nearly as bad as the peak of an uncontrolled epidemic.

“The social distancing was so effective that virtually no population immunity was built,” researchers wrote.

There was a resurgence when the control measures were lifted under each model, and researchers don’t endorse one path, they said.

“We do not take a position on the advisability of these scenarios given the economic burden that sustained distancing may impose, but we note the potentially catastrophic burden on the healthcare system that is predicted if distancing is poorly effective and-or not sustained for long enough,” researchers wrote.
Social distancing is broad spectrum but I think in some ways it can be managed. Does everyone need to be back at full capacity in every close quarters setting?
 

The ADD

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I'm not sure, but if this is true how is society gonna function?
Again depends on what it encompasses. Think like limited capacity in stores, parks, etc. We gotta just eat that. Barbershops and salons are going to have to stick with appointment windows to limit people in shops.

I’m not saying it’s ideal and those aren’t the full scope of measures but we are going to be forced to eat some of those.
 
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BK The Great

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Again depends on what it encompasses. Think like limited capacity in stores, parks, etc. We gotta just eat that. Barbershops and salons are going to have to stick with appointment windows to limit people in shops.

I’m not saying it’s ideal and those are the full scope of measures but we going to be forced to eat some of those.


Wonder how parks are gonna be affected. I mean i used to go play basketball and stuff, guess those days might be over with until this is done with.
 

ZoeGod

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Again depends on what it encompasses. Think like limited capacity in stores, parks, etc. We gotta just eat that. Barbershops and salons are going to have to stick with appointment windows to limit people in shops.

I’m not saying it’s ideal and those aren’t the full scope of measures but we are going to be forced to eat some of those.
Thing is Barbershops and salons depend on a lot of foot traffic to make overhead. If there isn’t govt aid to these small businesses a lot of these places will close. We are seeing the fiasco with the Paycheck Protection Program how only the top 25% of small buisnesses are getting loans. And it’s running out. If they are gonna to implement regulations they have to give these struggling businesses aid forever how long this crisis is. Can’t leave these businesses hanging.
 

The ADD

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Thing is Barbershops and salons depend on a lot of foot traffic to make overhead. If there isn’t govt aid to these small businesses a lot of these places will close. We are seeing the fiasco with the Paycheck Protection Program how only the top 25% of small buisnesses are getting loans. And it’s running out. If they are gonna to implement regulations they have to give these struggling businesses aid forever how long this crisis is. Can’t leave these businesses hanging.
I don’t disagree but also they would likely have to. I compromise things as well. We’ve all sat in a crowded barbershop for more than an hour. I have to thing they have to start establishing and sticking to appointment windows.
 
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