How An Achilles Tear Affects NBA Players (Or, Why Kobe Is Screwed)
Excerpts:
Surgical treatments and rehab processes can vary widely from doctor to doctor, but Kobe's six- to nine-month range seems realistic, though perhaps verging on optimistic.
That's because, even after surgery to repair the tear, there's a lot that can go wrong. Patients are typically rushed into surgery relatively quickly to keep the ends of the tendon from shortening, which would reduce range of motion and the ability to store energy. Surgery poses the risk of over-elongating the tendon, though, which could also severely impair functionality. Since the Achilles tendon is so closely related to running speed and power generation, any of that is bad news for an athleteand especially for an athlete as driven as Bryant.
Dr. Douglas Cerynik and Dr. Nirav H. Amin, both of Drexel University, were co-authors of the paper and kind enough to speak with me this past weekend. Along with their other collaborators, they examined 18 players who'd sustained ruptured Achilles tendons between the years of 1992 and 2012. Of those players, seven never returned to play in the NBA, and 11 came back for at least one season. Eight of those 11 returned to the league for multiple seasons.
The average age for injured players was 29.7, with seven years of playing experience (Kobe's in his 17th year); in the first year back from injury, players played 5.21 fewer minutes per game. That number dropped to 4.42 in the second year back. More tellingly, player efficiency rating (PER) dropped by 4.64 the first year back and 4.28 the second. To understand how severe that drop is, consider: This year, a difference of 4.64 PER is the difference between Kobe Bryant and Ersan Ilyasova.
Even seemingly favorable comparisons don't paint a very encouraging picture for Kobe, who's 34 years old. The experience of Dominique Wilkinswho ruptured his Achilles in the 1991-1992 season, at age 32, and came back to average 30 points the following yearhas been invoked several times over the past few days. Wilkins was also an aging, athletic slasher, and he came back to play at an All-Star level for four more years, and at a high level for two more after that. It's an encouraging comp for Kobe fans. Except: It's not, really.
At the time of his injury, Dominique had played 27,482 minutes over 10 seasons (playoffs included). Kobe, now in his 17th year, has logged 54,041 minutes. He's just two years older than Wilkins was at the time of his injury, but he has twice as much pro basketball mileage on his legs. And that doesn't even take into account Kobe's slogs through international competition (another 37 games started).
The better, if still remote, comparison is Isiah Thomas, who at the age of 32 tore his Achilles (it was the same year as Wilkins's injury). Thomas had played more seasons (13) and far more minutes (39,732 combined regular season and playoffs) than Wilkins, however. He never played in the NBA again.
Excerpts:
Surgical treatments and rehab processes can vary widely from doctor to doctor, but Kobe's six- to nine-month range seems realistic, though perhaps verging on optimistic.
That's because, even after surgery to repair the tear, there's a lot that can go wrong. Patients are typically rushed into surgery relatively quickly to keep the ends of the tendon from shortening, which would reduce range of motion and the ability to store energy. Surgery poses the risk of over-elongating the tendon, though, which could also severely impair functionality. Since the Achilles tendon is so closely related to running speed and power generation, any of that is bad news for an athleteand especially for an athlete as driven as Bryant.
Dr. Douglas Cerynik and Dr. Nirav H. Amin, both of Drexel University, were co-authors of the paper and kind enough to speak with me this past weekend. Along with their other collaborators, they examined 18 players who'd sustained ruptured Achilles tendons between the years of 1992 and 2012. Of those players, seven never returned to play in the NBA, and 11 came back for at least one season. Eight of those 11 returned to the league for multiple seasons.
The average age for injured players was 29.7, with seven years of playing experience (Kobe's in his 17th year); in the first year back from injury, players played 5.21 fewer minutes per game. That number dropped to 4.42 in the second year back. More tellingly, player efficiency rating (PER) dropped by 4.64 the first year back and 4.28 the second. To understand how severe that drop is, consider: This year, a difference of 4.64 PER is the difference between Kobe Bryant and Ersan Ilyasova.
Even seemingly favorable comparisons don't paint a very encouraging picture for Kobe, who's 34 years old. The experience of Dominique Wilkinswho ruptured his Achilles in the 1991-1992 season, at age 32, and came back to average 30 points the following yearhas been invoked several times over the past few days. Wilkins was also an aging, athletic slasher, and he came back to play at an All-Star level for four more years, and at a high level for two more after that. It's an encouraging comp for Kobe fans. Except: It's not, really.
At the time of his injury, Dominique had played 27,482 minutes over 10 seasons (playoffs included). Kobe, now in his 17th year, has logged 54,041 minutes. He's just two years older than Wilkins was at the time of his injury, but he has twice as much pro basketball mileage on his legs. And that doesn't even take into account Kobe's slogs through international competition (another 37 games started).
The better, if still remote, comparison is Isiah Thomas, who at the age of 32 tore his Achilles (it was the same year as Wilkins's injury). Thomas had played more seasons (13) and far more minutes (39,732 combined regular season and playoffs) than Wilkins, however. He never played in the NBA again.
