mc_brew
#NotMyPresident
definitely possible they arent 100 percent accurate but 80 is so overwhelming that even if it is really off and dropped to around 50 as you say, you can probably still run on it., i know a lot of people seemed to lose faith in polls after trump won but one thing about that is Hilary was only up by a few percentage points the day of the general and she won the popular vote by around one percent so still within the margin of error. i def wasnt someone who thought trump couldnt win even though i did think hilary would win but not in a landslide. i dont know what to make of the difference between vocal cac and the polls. people dont always answer honestly of course but still. even in so called liberal NY lots of whites are conservative especially in certain areas like staten island or howard beach, yet we do always end up with dems winning.
yea, i don't know, i can't call it... i will acknowledge that i am speaking anecdotally..... it just seems to me that i know far too many people that are against these things for these polls to be accurate... i'm kind off topic as i don't really have a position on what platform the dems should run on... personally, anything center/left to straight left leaning would be preferable to me than another term of trump.... i just wonder about these polls sometimes when they are so lopsided....
Polls cannot replicate real world behavior and many people who use surveys in a professional capacity know this, however they report digestible news to the public. Issue based polling tends to avoid contextual issues, in some cases people can make trade-offs on issues, one may like living wage but weights the Supreme Court higher and thus vote differently. Framing effects also work in polling, i saw one poll in the time the Muslim ban was first in the news and it had more support standing alone while support dropped when Trump's name was put alongside it and the same thing was observed with using ACA vs Obamacare. In any case if you hang around some of the places in the Midwest romanticized by some of the Progressives you will see that they are just as amenable to Rush Limbaugh type rhetoric. If you look at Ohio elections county by county every election year there are quite some swings, Obama won 15 out of 80 something counties against a private equity guy like Romney.
i hear you.... just because a person says they are for a living wage does not mean they won't vote for a candidate that is against a living wage if say the scotus pick is more important to them... i think we all have some trade offs we have to make, so i get that... however, i'm more referring to people that specifically are against the things that polls show overwhelming support for... like i know a lot of people that are not for any form of background checks, registries, gun control, none of that... it's hard to believe that 90% support background checks when i know so many people that are rabidly against that....
i need to make a separate thread about this... i don't want to derail this thread, but this is an interesting conversation... both you and @wtfyomom brought up some good points...