OfTheCross
Veteran
Still thinking about this. It's scary as fukk and makes me think that Democrats won't ever win the WH again..
Donald Trump only lost the election by 43,000 votes.
- Thread starter OfTheCross
- Start date
Still thinking about this. It's scary as fukk and makes me think that Democrats won't ever win the WH again..
Cel 510 kid ados forever
Veteran
Karma what goes around comes around
He won the last election by similar votes
Bye orange man
He won the last election by similar votes
Bye orange man
OfTheCross
Veteran
That's a bad look for D's going forward, though. How you win 7+ million more votes but still almost lose?
shyt cray. They really do gotta appeal to those CACs in the middle or it's a wrap
People owe hillary an apology
and Bernie would have lost by millions.
and Bernie would have lost by millions.
Cel 510 kid ados forever
Veteran
True that from that perspective it was closer than anyone thought maga came out heavy but wasnt quite enough.
Idk where else the dems can reach to be honest
OfTheCross
Veteran
It's the way the system is designed to give you the illusion of choice
This is 10000% why the squad needs to chill lowkey.
What does this mean? The electoral college smothers the fact trump is unpopular.
It's really disturbing and shows how screwed up the system is. But democrats have so many demographic trends in their favor that I don't see doom and gloom.
* Old people are dying, and White people's life expectancies are dropping
* The % of White people in the population is dropping cause non-White people have higher immigration and more kids
* Immigrants and former felons are getting greater awareness about getting voting rights and getting registered
* Young people hold more liberal positions than ever before, and everyone from Gen X to Millennials is trending more liberal over time, which is the opposite of what the Baby Boomers did
* All sorts of Trump-specific factors. Trump turned huge #'s of young and minority voters away from the Republicans permanently, then won't ever trust an R again cause they all sold their souls to Trump. Trump did attract a few new people, but those people were attracted to Trump personally, they're probably not going to hang on for whatever pasty white corporate suit the Republicans put up next. He poisoned any non-white moderate republican nominee that could appeal to the next generation because a lot of his base is going to see a nominee like that as selling out. And right now he's doing everything possible to turn his entire base off of voting cause they think voting is a waste of time and the Dems will just cheat.
Basically, the two things the Republicans have to bank on is depressing turnout (voter ID laws, limiting polling stations, eliminating mail-in and early voting, no day off to vote, etc.) and hoping the Democratic party has infighting and an ideological split. If the Democrats can push popular progressive policies, avoid contentious unpopular policies, and not fukk over their own base economically, they'll dominate from 2028 and on.
* Old people are dying, and White people's life expectancies are dropping
* The % of White people in the population is dropping cause non-White people have higher immigration and more kids
* Immigrants and former felons are getting greater awareness about getting voting rights and getting registered
* Young people hold more liberal positions than ever before, and everyone from Gen X to Millennials is trending more liberal over time, which is the opposite of what the Baby Boomers did
* All sorts of Trump-specific factors. Trump turned huge #'s of young and minority voters away from the Republicans permanently, then won't ever trust an R again cause they all sold their souls to Trump. Trump did attract a few new people, but those people were attracted to Trump personally, they're probably not going to hang on for whatever pasty white corporate suit the Republicans put up next. He poisoned any non-white moderate republican nominee that could appeal to the next generation because a lot of his base is going to see a nominee like that as selling out. And right now he's doing everything possible to turn his entire base off of voting cause they think voting is a waste of time and the Dems will just cheat.
Basically, the two things the Republicans have to bank on is depressing turnout (voter ID laws, limiting polling stations, eliminating mail-in and early voting, no day off to vote, etc.) and hoping the Democratic party has infighting and an ideological split. If the Democrats can push popular progressive policies, avoid contentious unpopular policies, and not fukk over their own base economically, they'll dominate from 2028 and on.
What were Obama’s winning numbers?
Either way, things need to change.
Either way, things need to change.
won by 7.2 points in 08 (he won the tipping point state Colorado by like 200,000 votes)
won by slightly less than biden in 2012 (colorado was the tipping point again, won it by like 140,000 votes)
in both elections obama won michigan, wisconsin, pennsylvania, and nevada by bigger margins than colorado. now colorado is more solid blue than those states. also obama won iowa and Maine-02 by bigger margins than colorado and they went for trump
on the other hand shyt was way closer in arizona and georgia even in 2016 than it had been for mccain/romney and biden was able to win those states. and virginia was a lot closer for obama than it has been in the last two elections
dora_da_destroyer
Master Baker
People, well anti Trumpers, want to harp on how "bad", "terrible" and "unpopular" Trump is but won't recognize how his general unpopularity yet popularity on the fringe actually helped republicans these past two elections. Without activating people who'd otherwise sit out and playing into white racial resentment, these margins decrease for rethugs. We gotta see if the republicans continue to run fringe candidates at the top of the ticket because running a Romney type won't get them anywhere.
I guess... The massive swings tell a different story.
The electoral college stuff sucks and will make everything more difficult, but when you look at the specifics it is very manageable.
To get to 270, Dems just have to hold onto Nevada, Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania. That's tough but very doable, and that's just 52 electoral votes they're defending. They kicked ass in all the other states - the next closest states were Minnesota and New Hampshire which they won by 7%, larger than their national margin of victory.
However, the Republicans not only have to break through in one of those above four states, now they have to worry about Arizona and Georgia (which they lost) as well as Florida and North Carolina (which they won by less than 3.5%). That's 71 electoral votes between those four states, which means the cost if they lose them is much bigger than the cost to the Dems for the smaller states that they're defending. Losing Georgia is as bad as losing Nevada and Wisconsin combined, losing Florida almost singlehandedly screws them no matter what else happens. And the long-term demographic trends are going to keep making life harder in all those states.
On top of all that, the Republicans only won Texas by 5%, and demographic changes in Texas will put it in play by 2024. Texas is 38 electoral votes, they lose that and they're completely screwed. If the Dems win Texas and Georgia, they could lose Florida, North Carolina, Arizona, Nevada, Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Maine, AND New Hampshire and still win the election with votes to spare. Same thing is basically true if they win Florida and Georgia - they'd just need to pull one other state from that list and they'd be fine.
Like I was saying, the electoral college shyt makes life more difficult for Democrats. I'd be happy to see it abolished cause it blatantly interferes with the will of the people. But they still got a lot of options to make it work.
To get to 270, Dems just have to hold onto Nevada, Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania. That's tough but very doable, and that's just 52 electoral votes they're defending. They kicked ass in all the other states - the next closest states were Minnesota and New Hampshire which they won by 7%, larger than their national margin of victory.
However, the Republicans not only have to break through in one of those above four states, now they have to worry about Arizona and Georgia (which they lost) as well as Florida and North Carolina (which they won by less than 3.5%). That's 71 electoral votes between those four states, which means the cost if they lose them is much bigger than the cost to the Dems for the smaller states that they're defending. Losing Georgia is as bad as losing Nevada and Wisconsin combined, losing Florida almost singlehandedly screws them no matter what else happens. And the long-term demographic trends are going to keep making life harder in all those states.
On top of all that, the Republicans only won Texas by 5%, and demographic changes in Texas will put it in play by 2024. Texas is 38 electoral votes, they lose that and they're completely screwed. If the Dems win Texas and Georgia, they could lose Florida, North Carolina, Arizona, Nevada, Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Maine, AND New Hampshire and still win the election with votes to spare. Same thing is basically true if they win Florida and Georgia - they'd just need to pull one other state from that list and they'd be fine.
Like I was saying, the electoral college shyt makes life more difficult for Democrats. I'd be happy to see it abolished cause it blatantly interferes with the will of the people. But they still got a lot of options to make it work.