FDT: JP Morgan officially project a recession.

Robbie3000

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Yeah, it's plainly apparent no other military is at parity with the US by an incredibly wide margin. It's not even equipment and training, it was our intelligence system.

I'm actually afraid if we do slide into recession/depression does Trump start flat out invading countries. No one could really stop him unless nukes started flying.

:mjlol: this is hilarious. where was this military might when we were forced to leave Korea, Vietnam, Iraq and Afghanistan with out tails tucked?
 

Lucky_Lefty

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It's hilarious that you can go on LinkedIn and a lot of the comments are rethugs claiming this is the media causing fear where there is none or Trump purging the deep state (wtf does that even mean anymore?). These people need to be eliminated
 

Robbie3000

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It's hilarious that you can go on LinkedIn and a lot of the comments are rethugs claiming this is the media causing fear where there is none or Trump purging the deep state (wtf does that even mean anymore?). These people need to be eliminated

MAGA is a cult. They’ll go along with anything Trump says. It’s something we have never seen before with a U.S president. He basically has diplomatic immunity with Republicans. All my life, Republicans have been worshiping at the altar of the Free market and free trade and now they throw out everything they have been preaching since the 80s for Trump.

Now they sound like progressives except they are pushing for manufacturing in the dumbest way possible. I would say this is a positive development, but we know they will go back to advocating for unfettered capitalism as soon as Trump changes his mind on tariffs or he gets out of office.

I honestly believe if Trump advocated for universal healthcare and free college, MAGA would go right along with him. The only thing that would cause MAGA to turn on Trump is if he started supporting all the groups that they hate.
 

Gloxina

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Ooooooomg

This is why Trump is implementing the tariffs.

Again, nothing is every his own idea :whoo:

From the mind of Stephen Miran



The desire to reform the global trading system and put American industry on fairer ground vis-à-vis the rest of the world has been a consistent theme for President Trump for decades. We may be on the cusp of generational change in the international trade and financial systems.

The root of the economic imbalances lies in persistent dollar overvaluation that prevents the balancing of international trade, and this overvaluation is driven by inelastic demand for reserve assets. As global GDP grows, it becomes increasingly burdensome for the United States to finance the provision of reserve assets and the defense umbrella, as the manufacturing and tradeable sectors bear the brunt of the costs.

In this essay I attempt to catalogue some of the available tools for reshaping these systems, the tradeoffs that accompany the use of those tools, and policy options for minimizing side effects. This is not policy advocacy, but an attempt to understand the financial market consequences of potential significant changes in trade or financial policy.

Tariffs provide revenue, and if offset by currency adjustments, present minimal inflationary or otherwise adverse side effects, consistent with the experience in 2018-2019. While currency offset can inhibit adjustments to trade flows, it suggests that tariffs are ultimately financed by the tariffed nation, whose real purchasing power and wealth decline, and that the revenue raised improves burden sharing for reserve asset provision. Tariffs will likely be implemented in a manner deeply intertwined with national security concerns, and I discuss a variety of possible implementation schemes. I also discuss optimal tariff rates in the context of the rest of the U.S. taxation system.

Currency policy aimed at correcting the undervaluation of other nations’ currencies brings an entirely different set of tradeoffs and potential implications. Historically, the United States has pursued multilateral approaches to currency adjustments. While many analysts believe there are no tools available to unilaterally address currency misvaluation, that is not true. I describe some potential avenues for both multilateral and unilateral currency adjustment strategies, as well as means of mitigating unwanted side effects.
Finally, I discuss a variety of financial market consequences of these policy tools, and possible sequencing.

Stephen Miran, Senior Strategist
Stephen Miran is Senior Strategist at Hudson Bay Capital. Previously, Dr. Miran served as senior advisor for economic policy at the U.S. Department of the Treasury, where he assisted with fiscal policy during the pandemic recession.

Prior to Treasury, Dr. Miran worked for a decade as an investment professional. Dr. Miran is also an economics fellow at the Manhattan Institute for Policy Research. He received a Ph.D. in economics from Harvard University and a B.A. from Boston University.







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