Jealous can still win if black folk and the liberal Moco and Hoco whites get out and vote. The state Supreme Court and police corruption should rile up the base. One thing to note, however, is despite being a blue state, and having a large black population, Maryland has never had a black statewide elected official( Senator or governor).
Former NAACP President Ben Jealous running for Governor of Maryland; Larry Hogan WINS re-election
- Thread starter ☑︎#VoteDemocrat
- Start date
Complacency is the issue
Hogan is no threat to the democratic legislature (or so they feel) because they have veto-proof majorities.
That and there are a lot of republican-lite sympathies throughout the state.
Hogan Has The Money, But Jealous Has The Numbers. Which Will Matter More In Maryland's Election? | WAMU
Martin Austermuhle
Maryland Gov. Larry Hogan is ahead in the polls and has more money, but Democratic challenger Ben Jealous says he will focus on turning out unlikely voters in his quest to defeat Hogan.
Patrick Semansky / AP
A few days after his surprising win in Florida’s Democratic primary, newly minted gubernatorial candidate Andrew Gillum took to Twitter with a brief message:
“Money doesn’t vote, people do,” he wrote.
Gillum was referring to the fact that even though he was outspent by three of his Democratic competitors — and also polled behind them — he still won the gubernatorial primary, becoming Florida’s first African American gubernatorial nominee.
Gillum’s tweet may be the best way to summarize Ben Jealous’s hopes to unseat Maryland Gov. Larry Hogan. Like Gillum, Jealous — a progressive Democrat who defeated Prince George’s County Executive Rushern Baker in the June primary — is behind in the polls and has far less money than the Republican incumbent.
“When someone says the electorate’s going to be different than in 2014, that’s correct. It’s going to be different. The question is, are they motivated to come out and vote?”
But officials from his campaign and the state’s Democratic Party insist that, like Gillum, Jealous’s chances are better than what polls and fundraising reports indicate. “When someone says the electorate’s going to be different than in 2014, that’s correct. It’s going to be different. The question is, are they motivated to come out and vote?” They say that President Trump’s deep unpopularity in the state and the high number of registered Democrats give them an edge, and they will target unlikely voters to boost turnout and drive a “blue wave” across Maryland.
“The absolute raw number differential between Democrats and Republicans is at an all-time high,” says John Willis, a professor at the University of Baltimore who served as Maryland’s secretary of state from 1995 to 2003. “When someone says the electorate’s going to be different than in 2014, that’s correct. It’s going to be different. The question is, are they motivated to come out and vote?”
A numbers game
As of June, there were 1.1 million more registered Democrats than Republicans in Maryland. That is generally thought to benefit Jealous. Over the last century, there have only been five Republican governors in Maryland.
“Given how Democratic a state Maryland is, there really aren’t enough voters that are open to voting for a Republican to withstand a real increase in voter turnout,” says Mark McLaurin, the political director for SEIU Local 500, a union that has endorsed and is working for Jealous.
For Jealous to defeat Hogan, increasing voter turnout — especially among unlikely voters who may side with his progressive message — is critical. When Hogan first won office four years ago, Democratic turnout across the state tanked, Willis says.
“In 2014, the percentage turnout of Democratic registered voters was the lowest in the history of Maryland. Lowest ever since 1867,” McLaurin says. “That’s not going to be 2018, whether it’s Trump, whether it’s local conditions.”
Democrats say they will double down on reaching unlikely voters in Democratic strongholds such as Prince George’s County, where Jealous joined Democratic officials and elected leaders last week to open the Maryland Democratic Coordinated Campaign headquarters. Among the speakers rallying guests was Rep. Anthony Brown, who in 2014 fell victim to the low turnout, losing to Hogan.
“If Democrats in Prince George’s County come out, they’re going to vote Democrat. We just gotta make sure we’re gonna get them out to vote, is that right?” Brown said to cheers.
McLaurin says that historically Republican governors in Maryland face a vote ceiling — for Robert Ehrlich in 2002, it was 879,592; in 2014 for Hogan, it was 884,400 — and that even a 10-percent increase in turnout compared to 2014 could doom Hogan’s re-election effort.
“We don’t think that Gov. Hogan can withstand an increase in turnout because he doesn’t have the voters,” says McLaurin.
Money still talks
But even though, as Gillum said, money doesn’t vote, it can still help people decide who they want to vote for. And there, Jealous remains at a significant disadvantage. As of last month, Jealous reported roughly $400,000 in the back; Hogan, on the other hand, boasted of $9.3 million.
Hogan’s campaign has already spent $3.5 million this year on TV and online ads burnishing his image as a middle-of-the-road change agent, and the Republican Governors Association spent $1 million in July alone criticizing Jealous as being too extreme for Maryland. On Jealous’s side, the state’s Democratic Party says it will air its own TV ads in the fall, but did not disclose any more details on how extensive the campaign would be or what issues it would focus on.
“Ben Jealous has made the argument that if voters hear his message, it’s a message that more Marylanders support,” says Mileah Kromer, director of the director of the Sarah T. Hughes Field Politics Center at Goucher College in Towson. “The issue is, does he have the money or the resources or the campaign to get Marylanders to actually hear this message? Because if they don’t hear it, they can’t react to it.”
Hogan also has public opinion on his side — polls this year have pegged his approval rating at between 60 and 70 percent. And while being a Republican in the era of Trump would be dangerous for anyone in a blue state, Hogan has consistently expressed his opposition to many of the president’s actions and his style of leadership.
“For a Republican to win in Maryland, a lot of things have to go right. But the governor has four years of a solid record. There’s quite a contrast with the previous administration, and that’s what voters were looking for, they were looking for a change. People feel good about how things are going,” says Jim Burton, a political consultant and one-time director of Maryland’s Republican Party.
That speaks to a possible hiccup in Jealous’s strategy of increasing voter turnout among Democrats, particularly unlikely voters. It may be offset by more centrist Democrats going for Hogan.
“You have to make sure that you’re holding Larry Hogan to under 20 percent or so of these habitual, moderate Democrats that are going to turn out most certainly in this midterm election. You have to make sure they don’t break for Hogan,” says Kromer, referring to Democratic voters in places like Baltimore County and even Montgomery County.
Polling vs. organizing
But speaking last week at the Democratic event in Prince George’s County, Jealous said the polling doesn’t matter — only on-the-ground organizing does.
“In 2010, we had almost 100 organizers on the ground on Election Day. In 2014, our party only had about 10. Today, we have about 48 across our state,” he said. “We know that the governor is running a negative air war because that’s how you suppress the vote. His party wins when we have low turnout.”
Willis of the University of Baltimore says that when it comes down to it, Maryland’s gubernatorial race remains fluid — largely because the pool of voters Jealous has to work with is so much larger than what Hogan has.
“Hogan can have every single vote he had last time, and still lose by 100,000 votes. That’s how much volatility there is in the electorate,” he says.
For his part, Hogan seems to be willing to fight that volatility, even in places where he faces tough odds. On Monday, he took part in two Labor Day parades in Montgomery County, where he was joined by a large contingent of supporters chanting “Four more years!” And despite voter registration realities that favor Democrats four to one, Hogan sounded confident.
“We have a 20-point lead in Montgomery County, so we’re going to keep working hard,” he said. “I don’t think my opponent is doing anything to energize anyone at this point.”
Martin Austermuhle
Maryland Gov. Larry Hogan is ahead in the polls and has more money, but Democratic challenger Ben Jealous says he will focus on turning out unlikely voters in his quest to defeat Hogan.
Patrick Semansky / AP
A few days after his surprising win in Florida’s Democratic primary, newly minted gubernatorial candidate Andrew Gillum took to Twitter with a brief message:
“Money doesn’t vote, people do,” he wrote.
Gillum was referring to the fact that even though he was outspent by three of his Democratic competitors — and also polled behind them — he still won the gubernatorial primary, becoming Florida’s first African American gubernatorial nominee.
Gillum’s tweet may be the best way to summarize Ben Jealous’s hopes to unseat Maryland Gov. Larry Hogan. Like Gillum, Jealous — a progressive Democrat who defeated Prince George’s County Executive Rushern Baker in the June primary — is behind in the polls and has far less money than the Republican incumbent.
“When someone says the electorate’s going to be different than in 2014, that’s correct. It’s going to be different. The question is, are they motivated to come out and vote?”
But officials from his campaign and the state’s Democratic Party insist that, like Gillum, Jealous’s chances are better than what polls and fundraising reports indicate. “When someone says the electorate’s going to be different than in 2014, that’s correct. It’s going to be different. The question is, are they motivated to come out and vote?” They say that President Trump’s deep unpopularity in the state and the high number of registered Democrats give them an edge, and they will target unlikely voters to boost turnout and drive a “blue wave” across Maryland.
“The absolute raw number differential between Democrats and Republicans is at an all-time high,” says John Willis, a professor at the University of Baltimore who served as Maryland’s secretary of state from 1995 to 2003. “When someone says the electorate’s going to be different than in 2014, that’s correct. It’s going to be different. The question is, are they motivated to come out and vote?”
A numbers game
As of June, there were 1.1 million more registered Democrats than Republicans in Maryland. That is generally thought to benefit Jealous. Over the last century, there have only been five Republican governors in Maryland.
“Given how Democratic a state Maryland is, there really aren’t enough voters that are open to voting for a Republican to withstand a real increase in voter turnout,” says Mark McLaurin, the political director for SEIU Local 500, a union that has endorsed and is working for Jealous.
For Jealous to defeat Hogan, increasing voter turnout — especially among unlikely voters who may side with his progressive message — is critical. When Hogan first won office four years ago, Democratic turnout across the state tanked, Willis says.
“In 2014, the percentage turnout of Democratic registered voters was the lowest in the history of Maryland. Lowest ever since 1867,” McLaurin says. “That’s not going to be 2018, whether it’s Trump, whether it’s local conditions.”
Democrats say they will double down on reaching unlikely voters in Democratic strongholds such as Prince George’s County, where Jealous joined Democratic officials and elected leaders last week to open the Maryland Democratic Coordinated Campaign headquarters. Among the speakers rallying guests was Rep. Anthony Brown, who in 2014 fell victim to the low turnout, losing to Hogan.
“If Democrats in Prince George’s County come out, they’re going to vote Democrat. We just gotta make sure we’re gonna get them out to vote, is that right?” Brown said to cheers.
McLaurin says that historically Republican governors in Maryland face a vote ceiling — for Robert Ehrlich in 2002, it was 879,592; in 2014 for Hogan, it was 884,400 — and that even a 10-percent increase in turnout compared to 2014 could doom Hogan’s re-election effort.
“We don’t think that Gov. Hogan can withstand an increase in turnout because he doesn’t have the voters,” says McLaurin.
Money still talks
But even though, as Gillum said, money doesn’t vote, it can still help people decide who they want to vote for. And there, Jealous remains at a significant disadvantage. As of last month, Jealous reported roughly $400,000 in the back; Hogan, on the other hand, boasted of $9.3 million.
Hogan’s campaign has already spent $3.5 million this year on TV and online ads burnishing his image as a middle-of-the-road change agent, and the Republican Governors Association spent $1 million in July alone criticizing Jealous as being too extreme for Maryland. On Jealous’s side, the state’s Democratic Party says it will air its own TV ads in the fall, but did not disclose any more details on how extensive the campaign would be or what issues it would focus on.
“Ben Jealous has made the argument that if voters hear his message, it’s a message that more Marylanders support,” says Mileah Kromer, director of the director of the Sarah T. Hughes Field Politics Center at Goucher College in Towson. “The issue is, does he have the money or the resources or the campaign to get Marylanders to actually hear this message? Because if they don’t hear it, they can’t react to it.”
Hogan also has public opinion on his side — polls this year have pegged his approval rating at between 60 and 70 percent. And while being a Republican in the era of Trump would be dangerous for anyone in a blue state, Hogan has consistently expressed his opposition to many of the president’s actions and his style of leadership.
“For a Republican to win in Maryland, a lot of things have to go right. But the governor has four years of a solid record. There’s quite a contrast with the previous administration, and that’s what voters were looking for, they were looking for a change. People feel good about how things are going,” says Jim Burton, a political consultant and one-time director of Maryland’s Republican Party.
That speaks to a possible hiccup in Jealous’s strategy of increasing voter turnout among Democrats, particularly unlikely voters. It may be offset by more centrist Democrats going for Hogan.
“You have to make sure that you’re holding Larry Hogan to under 20 percent or so of these habitual, moderate Democrats that are going to turn out most certainly in this midterm election. You have to make sure they don’t break for Hogan,” says Kromer, referring to Democratic voters in places like Baltimore County and even Montgomery County.
Polling vs. organizing
But speaking last week at the Democratic event in Prince George’s County, Jealous said the polling doesn’t matter — only on-the-ground organizing does.
“In 2010, we had almost 100 organizers on the ground on Election Day. In 2014, our party only had about 10. Today, we have about 48 across our state,” he said. “We know that the governor is running a negative air war because that’s how you suppress the vote. His party wins when we have low turnout.”
Willis of the University of Baltimore says that when it comes down to it, Maryland’s gubernatorial race remains fluid — largely because the pool of voters Jealous has to work with is so much larger than what Hogan has.
“Hogan can have every single vote he had last time, and still lose by 100,000 votes. That’s how much volatility there is in the electorate,” he says.
For his part, Hogan seems to be willing to fight that volatility, even in places where he faces tough odds. On Monday, he took part in two Labor Day parades in Montgomery County, where he was joined by a large contingent of supporters chanting “Four more years!” And despite voter registration realities that favor Democrats four to one, Hogan sounded confident.
“We have a 20-point lead in Montgomery County, so we’re going to keep working hard,” he said. “I don’t think my opponent is doing anything to energize anyone at this point.”
@mastermind @tru_m.a.c
Larry Hogan out here peddling fake news
Saying he has a 20 point lead in MoCo
Larry Hogan out here peddling fake news
Saying he has a 20 point lead in MoCo
afterlife2009
Superstar
ITs over
People are overwhelmingly voting other Dems like Cardin and Frosh. @Big Boss
@mastermind @tru_m.a.c @ineedsleep212
ITs over
@Big Boss
@mastermind @tru_m.a.c @ineedsleep212
shyt is mad depressing b. But then again, I did try and volunteer for the campaign and never got a response.
Same here
It seems like everything is centered in Baltimore!
I’m gonna go to one of the MD Dem offices and ask for some yard signs. I’ll volunteer to post them up around Bowie cause there’s nothing!
Also I saw there’s a meet and greet with Ben in Upper Marlboro.