September 26, 2018 - Gillum Up 9 Points In Florida Governor's Race, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; Voters Have Little Hope For Better Race Relations
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Sample and Methodology detail
Tallahassee Mayor Andrew Gillum, the Democrat, crosses the key 50 percent threshold and leads former U.S. Rep. Ron DeSantis 54 - 45 percent among likely voters in the Florida governor's race, according to a Quinnipiac University Poll released today.
This compares to a too-close-to-call outcome in a September 4 survey by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University Poll, showing Mayor Gillum with 50 percent and DeSantis with 47 percent.
Women and independent voters are the main drivers of Gillum's lead:
- Women back the Democrat 59 - 39 percent, as men are divided, with 51 percent for DeSantis and 48 percent for Gillum.
- Independent voters back Gillum 56 - 40 percent. Republicans back DeSantis 90 - 9 percent. Gillum leads 96 - 2 percent among Democrats.
Black and Hispanic voters also contribute to the Democrat's lead, as black voters back Gillum 98 - 2 percent and Hispanic voters support him 59 - 41 percent. White voters back DeSantis 53 - 45 percent.
Among Florida likely voters who name a candidate choice, 94 percent say their mind is made up.
Gillum gets a 55 - 31 percent favorability rating, while DeSantis gets a slightly negative 42 - 47 percent favorability rating.
"Former U.S. Rep. Ron DeSantis appears to be outspending Mayor Andrew Gillum, his Democratic opponent, in television advertising by a sizable amount, usually a sign of a winning campaign," said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Poll.
"Yet, all these TV ads don't seem to be helping DeSantis' campaign."
"Those TV ads, run in an effort to introduce DeSantis to Florida voters, are airing at the same time his favorability numbers are sinking and Mayor Gillum's are rising," Brown added.
"When asked whether they view each of the candidates favorably or unfavorably, Gillum's rating is 24 percentage points positive, and DeSantis' score is 5 points negative. At this point, Gillum's biggest asset is just that voters like him better.
"DeSantis is spending a lot for TV commercials, but they don't seem to be effective."
For 20 percent of Florida likely voters, the economy is the most important issue in their vote for governor, as 14 percent name immigration; 14 percent list education; 14 percent cite health care, with 13 percent for the environment and 12 percent for gun policy.
Gillum is too liberal, 39 percent of Florida likely voters say, while 54 percent say he is neither too liberal nor too conservative.
DeSantis is too conservative, 39 percent of voters say, as 52 percent say he is neither too liberal nor too conservative.
Race Relations in Florida
Only 25 percent of Florida voters say race relations in the state will get better if Gillum is elected, as 27 percent say race relations will get worse and 43 percent say they will stay the same.
If DeSantis is elected governor, race relations will get better, 13 percent of voters say, while 38 percent say race relations will get worse and 45 percent say they will stay the same.
From September 20 - 24, Quinnipiac University surveyed 888 Florida likely voters with a margin of error of +/- 4 percentage points, including the design effect.
The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts gold standard surveys using random digit dialing with live interviewers calling landlines and cell phones. The Quinnipiac University Poll conducts nationwide surveys and polls in more than a dozen states on national and statewide elections, as well as public policy issues.
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1. If the election for governor were being held today, and the candidates were Andrew Gillum the Democrat and Ron DeSantis the Republican, for whom would you vote? (If undecided) As of today, do you lean more toward Andrew Gillum the Democrat or more toward Ron DeSantis the Republican?
QU Poll Release Detail