I'm in supply chain dealing with the fukkery AMA; Update: Chip shortage until at least 2022

DrBanneker

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So I work in supply chain in industrial manufacturing. In my position though I buy everything from fabricated metal parts, to machines, to plastics, to wood products, to raw materials.

In short, this shyt is getting out of control. The store prices and news stories kind of give you a picture but you can't imagine how bad things are being gummed up across industries and still getting worse.

Did you know:

All the soda and bottled water companies and other users are pressed since all the plants making polypropylene plastic in TX and the Gulf went down in that winter store and are still backlogged? Polypropylene (PP symbol on the bottom of plastic bottles) prices are up double digits and there are STILL shortages.

That billion dollar corporations can't find enough pallets, fukkING PALLETS due to the lumber shortage? Which actually has been going on a year and is the only inflation that isn't new.

Several electronics competitors that use our same contract electronics suppliers are re-designing their products to get around a chip shortage since lead times are at 52+ weeks now for a lot of stuff?

People are flying bags of bulk chemicals AIR FREIGHT out of Asia since you can't get on a container ship without paying premium rates and you still are waiting a week to get on the ship and once the ship gets to LA it has to wait a couple of weeks for a docking window?

I got about a dozen suppliers last week saying "pay 5-8% more immediately or we stop shipment"?

Brehs, it is not looking happy. Also all of my suppliers, except those with index traded raw materials, have stated they aren't ratcheting prices back after the inflation is over so we (and you) are stuck with it.

Honestly, I would look at your food and medicine budget and up it by 10-20% by cutting spending elsewhere. It will be 2-4 months but this shytstorm I will am dealing with at the manufacturing end should make it to the consumer end by then.

0bmwB-lumber-price-hits-another-all-time-high.png


Xeneta.521-400x274.PNG

1Q2021%20joc%20spot%20index%20chart%203-400x276.png

figure-1_net-speculative-positioning-in-lme-copper-futures.png

alfredgraph.png

Granted for the last charge, part of the surge (about 10%) is related to depressed prices last year but it is still way up historically.


@The M.I.C. and @til november been discussing this with me in the Random Thoughts forum for a sec
 

Morose Polymath

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Good thread @DrBanneker

This the type of behind the scenes shyt, the general public is ignorant/oblivious to. The pandemic/unemployment stimulus has hurt alot of companies due to shortage of labor.

My company is going thru it now on both ends. I hear it in our weekly meetings. Cant get the materials we need from vendors due to shortages and backlog, meanwhile we missing deadlines on certain product cause we can't keep workers due to unemployment being more beneficial and our payrate being some bs :mjlol: :beli:
 

NoMoreWhiteWoman2020

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@DrBanneker its interesting because not too long ago I learned that Alabama’s chief export is lumber. Why is there a wood/pallet shortage? My family has been buying some acres and we are about to harvest the trees, what I’m hearing is maybe we should maybe start processing that wood ourselves and selling some pallets :jbhmm:

also, out here Walmart has work vans going to Florida bc of the worker shortage. I think we are facing a shortage of skilled workers though. Amazon and Walmart are grabbing up people who should be working in trades.

:salute: breh
 

MajesticLion

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- they've all had more than enough time to minimize waste and recycle things back into the production streams, especially plastics and lumber.
- the chips things is just the lunacy that follows from having only two major companies supply the entire planet.
- good heads-up on the food/medicine increases, I'm not liking what I'm seeing there either.





Get right with the farmers. :ufdup:
 

DrBanneker

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:sadcam:. What is the cause of this, is it covid:picard:

Yes and in a bunch of ways:

1. Some things like lumber and housing began soaring during COVID as people began a lot of migration in the country due to WFH and also a lot of free time to do home improvement.

2. Everyone shed workers in COVID so labor forces and capacity were way down. Shippers began laying up containers and ships due to trade slowing

3. Nobody, I mean NOBODY predicted how fast demand would come back in January. The story is the same everywhere

4. Because of #2, no one had workers and capacity to ramp up quickly. Also because of #2 inventories were down since people stopped producing so you have an instant shortage of materials and labor capacity

5. It is hard to hire anyone. Maybe it is wages in the service sector but even in manufacturing we have trouble getting people to come in for $15-20/hr and half that do fail the drug test

6. All this cascades down and screws up everything so there is a universal shortage

7. Unexpected events like the winter storm in TX made things worse since a lost of industries like petrochem and plastics are concentrated there.

8. China started ramping earlier due to handling COVID (allegedly) and their demand is sucking up a lot of the market
 

DrBanneker

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But I heard EDD is causing the increase in prices....
:patrice:

As far as it affects labor capacity, it does affect inflation, but not every industry has labor as a large portion of their costs like foodservice, trucking, etc. Material inflation is way driving most of it in my sector. There is a labor effect though when factories have reduced capacity due to inability to find workers.

Some people may argue EDD is driving demand but these material effects are global so I think Central Bank coordinated stimulus is doing more than EDD.
 
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