Job Automation and the Minimum Wage Debate

DEAD7

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An anonymous reader writes "An article at FiveThirtyEight looks at the likelihood of various occupations being replaced by automation. It mentions President Obama's proposed increase to the federal minimum wage, saying big leaps in automation could reshape that debate. '[The wage increase] from $7.25 to $10.10 per hour could make it worthwhile for employers to adopt emerging technologies to do the work of their low-wage workers. But can a robot really do a janitor's job? Can software fully replace a fast-food worker? Economists have long considered these low-skilled, non-routine jobs as less vulnerable to technological replacement, but until now, quantitative estimates of a job's vulnerability have been missing from the debate.' Many minimum-wage jobs are reportedly at high risk, including restaurant workers, cashiers, and telemarketers. A study rated the probability of computerization within 20 years (PDF): 92% for retail salespeople, 97% for cashiers, and 94% for waitstaff. There are other jobs with a high likelihood, but they employ fewer people and generally have a higher pay rate: tax preparers (99%), freight workers (99%), and legal secretaries (98%)."
 

tmonster

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so expand this to its logical conclusion
what happens when we can automate everything? even robot repair?
the majority of humanity should then feel useless?
isn't it clear that the purpose of labor is lost in this equation?
 

Bolzmark

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Just another factor pointing to one of the scariest things about jobs and the work force in America. The entities that our country depends so heavily on to create and maintain jobs for people are not in the business of creating and maintaining jobs. In fact its usually the opposite.
 

DEAD7

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so expand this to its logical conclusion
what happens when we can automate everything? even robot repair?
the majority of humanity should then feel useless?
isn't it clear that the purpose of labor is lost in this equation?
an expansion of the arts maybe?
Full blown socialism? In a good way...:lupe:

Its kinda crazy to think about...
 

sm0ke

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some famous economist (his name escapes my mind) predicted we would all learn how to maintain the automation and machinery and only work like 15 hours a week

John Maynard Keynes. His reason for predicting that (rising living standards) has turned out to be correct, but outside of Western Europe, people aren't working less. If income inequality remains at its current level or increases, there's no reason to believe people will work less (at least, voluntarily), since they won't be able to afford to. They certainly won't be enjoying vacations in their time off.
 

sm0ke

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If companies want to automate jobs, they're going to do it regardless. Let's not sit here and act like companies are gonna decide to do this solely because they had to pay some their workers $9/hr instead of $8/hr. :rudy:

Yeah, raising wages only speeds up the process. A crude "rule of thumb" I learned is if it costs less than one (or maybe two -- I forgot) years' wages to replace a worker with a robot, do it. It's just basic cost-benefit analysis. The technology will go down in price over time, so unless wages are lowered (which obviously won't work), it will happen eventually.

So, not a question of if, but when. Probably sooner than later. How do we keep the income distribution from becoming even more top-heavy?
 
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