Did the Buccaneers ruin Freeman?
I think you can make a case they certainly will leave Freeman in worse shape than the state he was in before Greg Schiano arrived in town. Freeman, remember, had a staggeringly good 2010 season at the ripe old age of 22, completing 61.4 percent of his passes while averaging 7.3 yards per attempt and throwing 25 touchdowns against six picks. That's a superstar, and Freeman did it while throwing to a crew of not-yets and too-lates: His primary receivers that year were rookies Mike Williams and Arrelious Benn, with Kellen Winslow and Cadillac Williams chipping in as ancillary targets. And Freeman was younger that year than Andrew Luck was during his rookie season. That's scary potential.
Since then, Freeman struggled through a disappointing 2011 season, had a hot start to the 2012 campaign, and then fell off a cliff near the second half of 2012. Part of that has to fall on his coaches, who don't exactly have the best pedigrees in dealing with quarterbacks. Schiano's gruff nature doesn't endear himself to just about anybody on the roster, but the coaches he hired to help Freeman develop are about as curious as can be. For his first staff in 2012, Schiano hired former college coach Ron Turner to be his quarterbacks coach. During the 2011 campaign, Turner had been the quarterbacks coach for the Indianapolis Colts, who got virtually nothing that season out of their young starter, Curtis Painter. When Turner left to take over at FIU, Schiano looked around and ended up hiring John McNulty, who had recently been let go with the remainder of the coaching staff in Arizona. There, McNulty was in charge of helping to develop Lindley, John Skelton, and Kevin Kolb. That's right: Since Schiano took over as head coach, the guys Josh Freeman has had as quarterbacks coaches have been partly responsible for two of the worst quarterback situations in recent memory.
Remember that this was all very close to going very differently. The Buccaneers were reportedly very close to hiring Chip Kelly during the 2011 offseason, with Kelly reportedly changing his mind at the last moment to stay at Oregon. When Kelly spurned them, the Buccaneers went back to the drawing board and ended up surprisingly choosing Schiano. There's no guarantees that Kelly would have "fixed" what ails Freeman, but it seems fair to say he probably would have done a better job than Schiano & Co. have.
Could the organization have made it easier for Freeman to succeed?
To some extent, yes. When Tampa traded away Winslow after that 2011 campaign, it failed to sign a real replacement at tight end who could catch passes over the middle of the field. It likewise lacked a slot receiver who could run option routes and make the occasional safety miss on a tackle for a big gain. Watch the Buccaneers offense with Freeman and you'll see a lot of arching throws toward the sideline on pass attempts to Vincent Jackson and Williams. The Bucs run a ton of isolation routes with those wideouts and often fail to provide Freeman with a simple checkdown or safe option on his dropbacks. They have two good wide receivers, but those players are very similar physically and share many of the same traits. Having a group of receivers with diverse skill sets is generally the best way to build a set of options for your quarterback.
Has anyone ever played as well as Freeman did and failed to develop into a perennial starting quarterback?
Tough to say, but I think so. In terms of Pro-Football-Reference.com's quarterback index statistics, which compare a player's stats to the league average after adjusting for era, Freeman's 2010 campaign was above-average in every facet of the game, peaking with an impressive interception index (123) and passer rating index (113). It's difficult to build an era-independent model that finds similar players to Freeman, but there are two players I was able to find who had similarly impressive second seasons before failing to really improve on their prior performance and/or hold on to their starting jobs.
The first is near and dear to the boss's heart: Tony Eason. In 1984, his second year in the league and his first year as a full-time starter (after starting four games as a rookie), Eason completed 60.1 percent of his passes, averaged 7.5 yards per attempt, and threw 23 touchdowns against eight picks. Like Freeman, his numbers were above-average or better just about across the board. Eason had a disappointing follow-up season in 1985, as his interception rate spiked and he missed time with a separated shoulder. The Patriots made it to the Super Bowl that year, with Eason playing efficiently during the playoffs, but he was benched halfway through the Super Bowl after starting 0-for-6 against the Bears. After 1986, Eason was never a regular starter again.
The more recent example would be Brian Griese, who stepped into the Denver lineup as a replacement for John Elway and produced impressive numbers in his second season as a starter (but third year in the league), leading the league in passer rating while throwing 19 touchdowns against just four picks. Those numbers came across 10 games, and after that season, Griese was never as effective. His interception rate spiked the following year and never dropped, and three years after his breakout campaign, he was allowed to leave Denver to sign with Miami. He ambled on as a borderline starter for a few more seasons, never reaching the heights of his breakout year.
It seems likely now that Freeman is the next quarterback to follow in those players' footsteps. He'll probably get a chance to compete for a starting job elsewhere, since he doesn't turn 26 until January and has nearly 2,000 pro passes under his belt, but there's no steady employment or long-term deal awaiting Freeman.
Why would Schiano do this right now?
Beyond the fact that Tampa has gotten nothing out of its passing game, the Buccaneers are 0-3 and about to play the Cardinals before going on their bye week. It was entirely possible, given the nature of how this season has gone and the variety of complaints fielded about Schiano, that an 0-4 Buccaneers team might have let him go during the bye week and replaced him with an interim coach for the remainder of the year.
By replacing Freeman now, Schiano basically buys himself time to get through the bye with the implied argument of "You can't fire me until we see whether the rookie can solve our problems at quarterback!" It's not scapegoating Freeman, since he hasn't played well and probably deserves to be benched, but the timing is pretty curious, especially considering Schiano was calling Freeman his starter
several days ago.