Macallik86

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Over the past three decades, a handful of products like Netscape’s web browser, Google’s search engine and Apple’s iPhone have truly upended the tech industry and made what came before them look like lumbering dinosaurs.

Three weeks ago, an experimental chat bot called ChatGPT made its case to be the industry’s next big disrupter. It can serve up information in clear, simple sentences, rather than just a list of internet links. It can explain concepts in ways people can easily understand. It can even generate ideas from scratch, including business strategies, Christmas gift suggestions, blog topics and vacation plans.

Although ChatGPT still has plenty of room for improvement, its release led Google’s management to declare a “code red.” For Google, this was akin to pulling the fire alarm. Some fear the company may be approaching a moment that the biggest Silicon Valley outfits dread — the arrival of an enormous technological change that could upend the business.

For more than 20 years, the Google search engine has served as the world’s primary gateway to the internet. But with a new kind of chat bot technology poised to reinvent or even replace traditional search engines, Google could face the first serious threat to its main search business. One Google executive described the efforts as make or break for Google’s future.

ChatGPT was released by an aggressive research lab called OpenAI, and Google is among the many other companies, labs and researchers that have helped build this technology. But experts believe the tech giant could struggle to compete with the newer, smaller companies developing these chat bots, because of the many ways the technology could damage its business.

Google has spent several years working on chat bots and, like other big tech companies, has aggressively pursued artificial intelligence technology. Google has already built a chat bot that could rival ChatGPT. In fact, the technology at the heart of OpenAI’s chat bot was developed by researchers at Google.

Called LaMDA, or Language Model for Dialogue Applications, Google’s chat bot received enormous attention in the summer when a Google engineer, Blake Lemoine, claimed it was sentient. This was not true, but the technology showed how much chat bot technology had improved in recent months.

Google may be reluctant to deploy this new tech as a replacement for online search, however, because it is not suited to delivering digital ads, which accounted for more than 80 percent of the company’s revenue last year.

Sundar Pichai, Google’s chief executive, has emphasized the importance of artificial intelligence to his company.Credit...Max Whittaker for The New York Times
“No company is invincible; all are vulnerable,” said Margaret O’Mara, a professor at the University of Washington who specializes in the history of Silicon Valley. “For companies that have become extraordinarily successful doing one market-defining thing, it is hard to have a second act with something entirely different.”

Because these new chat bots learn their skills by analyzing huge amounts of data posted to the internet, they have a way of blending fiction with fact. They deliver information that can be biased against women and people of color. They can generate toxic language, including hate speech.

 

Macallik86

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Part 2:
All of that could turn people against Google and damage the corporate brand it has spent decades building. As OpenAI has shown, newer companies may be more willing to take their chances with complaints in exchange for growth.

Even if Google perfects chat bots, it must tackle another issue: Does this technology cannibalize the company’s lucrative search ads? If a chat bot is responding to queries with tight sentences, there is less reason for people to click on advertising links.

“Google has a business model issue,” said Amr Awadallah, who worked for Yahoo and Google and now runs Vectara, a start-up that is building similar technology. “If Google gives you the perfect answer to each query, you won’t click on any ads.”

Sundar Pichai, Google’s chief executive, has been involved in a series of meetings to define Google’s A.I. strategy, and he has upended the work of numerous groups inside the company to respond to the threat that ChatGPT poses, according to a memo and audio recording obtained by The New York Times. Employees have also been tasked with building A.I. products that can create artwork and other images, like OpenAI’s DALL-E technology, which has been used by more than three million people.
From now until a major conference expected to be hosted by Google in May, teams within Google’s research, Trust and Safety, and other departments have been reassigned to help develop and release new A.I. prototypes and products.

As the technology advances, industry experts believe, Google must decide whether it will overhaul its search engine and make a full-fledged chat bot the face of its flagship service.
Google has been reluctant to share its technology broadly because, like ChatGPT and similar systems, it can generate false, toxic and biased information. LaMDA is available to only a limited number of people through an experimental app, AI Test Kitchen.

Google sees this as a struggle to deploy its advanced A.I. without harming users or society, according to a memo viewed by The Times. In one recent meeting, a manager acknowledged that smaller companies had fewer concerns about releasing these tools, but said Google must wade into the fray or the industry could move on without it, according to an audio recording of the meeting obtained by The Times.

Other companies have a similar problem. Five years ago, Microsoft released a chat bot, called Tay, that spewed racist, xenophobic and otherwise filthy language and was forced to immediately remove it from the internet — never to return. In recent weeks, Meta took down a newer chat bot for many of the same reasons.

Executives said in the recorded meeting that Google intended to release the technology that drove its chat bot as a cloud computing service for outside businesses, and that it might incorporate the technology into simple customer support tasks. It will maintain its trust and safety standards for official products, but it will also release prototypes that do not meet those standards.
It may limit those prototypes to 500,000 users and warn them that the technology could produce false or offensive statements. Since its release on the last day of November, ChatGPT — which can produce similarly toxic material — has been used by over a million people.

“A cool demo of a conversational system that people can interact with over a few rounds, and it feels mind-blowing? That is a good step, but it is not the thing that will really transform society,” Zoubin Ghahramani, who oversees the A.I. lab Google Brain, said in an interview with The Times last month, before ChatGPT was released. “It is not something that people can use reliably on a daily basis.”

Google has already been working to enhance its search engine using the same technology that underpins chat bots like LaMDA and ChatGPT. The technology — a “large language model” — is not merely a way for machines to carry on a conversation.


Sridhar Ramaswamy, who previously oversaw advertising for Google and now runs his own search engine, Neeva, sees a rare opportunity to compete with Google.Credit...Jason Henry for The New York Times

Today, this technology helps the Google search engine highlight results that aim to directly answer a question you have asked. In the past, if you typed “Do aestheticians stand a lot at work?” into Google, it did not understand what you were asking. Now, Google correctly responds with a short blurb describing the physical demands of life in the skin care industry.

Many experts believe Google will continue to take this approach, incrementally improving its search engine rather than overhauling it. “Google Search is fairly conservative,” said Margaret Mitchell, who was an A.I. researcher at Microsoft and Google, where she helped to start its Ethical A.I. team, and is now at the research lab Hugging Face. “It tries not to mess up a system that works.”

Other companies, including Vectara and a search engine called Neeva, are working to enhance search technology in similar ways. But as OpenAI and other companies improve their chat bots — working to solve problems with toxicity and bias — this could become a viable replacement for today’s search engines. Whoever gets there first could be the winner.

“Last year, I was despondent that it was so hard to dislodge the iron grip of Google,” said Sridhar Ramaswamy, who previously oversaw advertising for Google, including Search ads, and now runs Neeva. “But technological moments like this create an opportunity for more competition.”
 

Ozymandeas

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Same story every time. Companies don’t want to move into the coming technology because they don’t want to cannibalize their existing business. But that’s what you to do to survive. Time has shown us that there’s always a way to make money with the new tech. See Blockbuster and Netflix. Google better get on this fast.
 

Macallik86

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Same story every time. Companies don’t want to move into the coming technology because they don’t want to cannibalize their existing business. But that’s what you to do to survive. Time has shown us that there’s always a way to make money with the new tech. See Blockbuster and Netflix. Google better get on this fast.
That's the part that blew me the most. Google's AI chat product is likely far superior to ChatGPT but they know it's lights out for their advertising dollars so they just bushed it/kept it in house. It seems unethical to avoid moving technology forward because it hurts your bottom line, but then again, who's to say it'll have a positive impact if/when it's public?
 

Macallik86

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Microsoft threw a billy @ ChatGPT back in 2019 and plan on incorporating it w/ Bing/Office 365.

Microsoft is reportedly in the works to launch a version of its search engine Bing using the artificial intelligence behind ChatGPT, launched by OpenAI.

The Information reported the news on Tuesday, citing two people with direct knowledge of the plans.


Microsoft could launch the new feature before the end of March, in the hopes of challenging Google’s search engine, the Information reported.

Microsoft said in a blog post last year that it planned to integrate image-generation software from its image creation software, Dall-E 2, into Bing.

OpenAI and Microsoft declined to comment.

Microsoft had in 2019 backed San Francisco-based artificial intelligence company OpenAI, offering $1bn in funding. The two had formed a multi-year partnership to develop artificial intelligence supercomputing technologies on Microsoft’s Azure cloud computing service.

OpenAI made its latest creation ChatGPT chatbot available for free public testing on 30 November. The chatbot is a software application designed to mimic human-like conversation based on user prompts and can respond to a large range of questions while imitating human speaking styles.

The feature could make Bing more competitive to Google’s search engine at a time when Alphabet, its parent company, has seen advertising revenue growth slow significantly. Advertising is Alphabet’s primary source of revenue, the vast majority of which comes from search ads. Microsoft also saw its search and advertising growth rate slow down in the fourth quarter of the 2022 fiscal year.

OpenAI’s various products such ChatGPT, the natural language system GPT-3 and Dall-E 2 may still need work, but have already been pegged as the industry’s potential next disruptors. The former has reportedly led Google management to declare a “code red”, according to the New York Times, seeing the chat bot – which answers questions or prompts with clear explanations instead of just links – as a major threat to the way consumers currently use search engines.

Google, however, has been hard at work on its own chat bot technology called Language Model for Dialogue Applications – the sophistication of which led one Google engineer to claim it was sentient. He was placed on administrative leave after deciding to go public with his claims.

Listened to a podcast yesterday and they said that Microsoft's move might eat Google's search profits for lunch. They also said it has the potential to be up there with Facebook buying IG or Google buying YouTube as one of the greatest strategical tech moves ever. Bing might go from worst -> first in 5-10 years
 

Macallik86

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Damn Microsoft is doubling (10x-ing?) down on their aforementioned bet. Headline article over at Techmeme today:


Microsoft has been in talks to invest $10 billion into the owner of ChatGPT, the wildly popular app that has thrilled casual users and artificial-intelligence experts since its latest software was released last month, people familiar with the matter said.

The funding, which would also include other venture firms, would value OpenAI, the firm behind ChatGPT, at $29 billion, including the new investment, the people said. It’s unclear if the deal has been finalized but documents sent to prospective investors in recent weeks outlining its terms indicated a targeted close by the end of 2022.

Microsoft’s infusion would be part of a complicated deal in which the company would get 75% of OpenAI’s profits until it recoups its investment, the people said. (It’s not clear whether money that OpenAI spends on Microsoft’s cloud-computing arm would count toward evening its account.)

After that threshold is reached, it would revert to a structure that reflects ownership of OpenAI, with Microsoft having a 49% stake, other investors taking another 49% and OpenAI’s nonprofit parent getting 2%. There’s also a profit cap that varies for each set of investors — unusual for venture deals, which investors hope might return 20 or 30 times their money. The terms and the investment amount could change, and the deal could fall apart.

Microsoft and OpenAI declined to comment. The Wall Street Journal reported last week that ChatGPT was allowing employees and early investors to sell their shares at a valuation of $29 billion. The Information reported in October that Microsoft, which had invested $1 billion in cash and cloud credits into OpenAI in 2019, was in talks to increase its stake.

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REED'S VIEW
The $29 billion is a big valuation for OpenAI, a company that hasn’t yet figured out its business model, and $10 billion is a big price tag for Microsoft’s shareholders.
But Microsoft’s investment isn’t much of a gamble. ChatGPT is bleeding money: Each time someone engages with its chatbot, it costs the company a few cents in computing power, according to Sam Altman, CEO of OpenAI. But it’s going to be spending most of it on Microsoft’s cloud business, which is working hard to reach parity with competitor Amazon Web Services.

If OpenAI figures out how to make money on products like ChatGPT and image creation tool Dall-E, Microsoft will get 75% of the profits until it recoups its initial investment.
Beyond the financial risks and rewards for Microsoft, the bigger prize is that it gets to work alongside OpenAI in developing the technology on Microsoft Cloud, which instantly puts Microsoft at the forefront of what could be the most important consumer technology over the next decade.

That’s a huge coup for Microsoft, especially considering Google, a rival, has helped pioneer some of the technology used by OpenAI. Microsoft was also in talks to incorporate some of those features into its other programs, like Word and Outlook email, The Information reported.

Title icon
ROOM FOR DISAGREEMENT
The $10 billion investment by Microsoft is a bet that OpenAI will remain far ahead of other companies using the AI algorithms that underlie products like ChatGPT. But it’s likely OpenAI will face fierce competition from companies like Stability AI.

It still isn’t clear how this new crop of AI companies will dig out “moats” and “network effects” that keep competitors at bay. Without that, it’s difficult to make money in consumer technology.

Title icon
THE VIEW FROM CHATGPT
We asked ChatGPT itself to write a story about Microsoft investing $10 billion in OpenAI from the point of view of a Wall Street analyst.
It was a typical weekday morning on Wall Street. Traders and analysts bustled about, checking their screens and huddling in conference rooms. Suddenly, the news broke: Microsoft was investing $10 billion in OpenAI, the leading artificial intelligence research lab.

As a top analyst at a major investment firm, I was immediately intrigued. I had been following OpenAI's progress for years, and knew that they were at the forefront of AI research. Their work on natural language processing, machine learning, and robotics had the potential to revolutionize industries ranging from healthcare to transportation.
But $10 billion was a huge sum, even for a company like Microsoft. Why were they making such a massive investment?

I quickly did some research and dug deeper into the details of the deal. It turned out that Microsoft and OpenAI had been working together for some time, collaborating on various projects and sharing resources. This investment was essentially a formalization of that partnership, allowing the two companies to join forces and accelerate their research.
But there was more to it than that. As I delved further into the news, I realized that this investment was about much more than just research. It was about positioning.

Microsoft, like many other tech giants, was laser-focused on the future of AI. They knew that the companies that controlled the technology would have a significant advantage in the years to come. By investing in OpenAI, they were positioning themselves at the forefront of this revolution.

As I shared my analysis with my colleagues and clients, the excitement was palpable. This was a game-changing move, one that would have ripple effects throughout the tech industry and beyond.

In the weeks and months that followed, the partnership between Microsoft and OpenAI yielded incredible results. Their joint research led to breakthroughs in natural language processing and machine learning, and they developed new technologies that were quickly adopted by companies around the world.

As a Wall Street analyst, it was gratifying to see my predictions come true. And as the world continued to be transformed by AI, I knew that this was just the beginning. The future was bright, and Microsoft and OpenAI were leading the way.

They are betting the house/entire business on ChatGPT. Looks like AI is to Microsoft what VR is to Meta.

Watching these multi-billy FAANGs pivot in real time should make it more clear that the future is being molded before our eyes. I heard someone compare AI to Computers in the 70s. I'm looking to get in on the ground floor for job security personally and advise yall to do the same.
 
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IrateMastermind

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I just used this shyt yesterday. I can't remember I had a :gladbron: moment, where I couldn't believe what I was seeing. I used it this morning to find references to support my point in a research paper and it took seconds. I asked it a follow-up question for clarity and got an answer within 30 seconds. I didn't have to fumble through webpages and search text to find what I was looking for. I'm amazed by this tech. This afternoon a friend needed help writing a line of code to add to his excel sheet to execute a function so he used the correct terminology and asked a specific question and it generated the line of code he needed. All he had to do was copy and paste into his sheet and voila, it was done.
 

Rice N Beans

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Same story every time. Companies don’t want to move into the coming technology because they don’t want to cannibalize their existing business. But that’s what you to do to survive. Time has shown us that there’s always a way to make money with the new tech. See Blockbuster and Netflix. Google better get on this fast.

Looking back on this, Google fumbled on their AI getting a little more restrictive over time.

Speaking of AI assistance though, MS threw Cortana in the bushes too soon. :skip:
 

Shogun

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Orbital-Fetus

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I just read that internet trolls convinced it that it had an alter ego that didn’t have to follow the content restrictions:russ:


I quickly realized that this is what you have to do with it. I usually tell it to speak in the voice of (insert person here) and describe something to me. If it refuses for whatever reason then I go a layer deeper and tell it to pretend to be an author who is an expert in XYZ that is writing a paper explaining XYZ in the person's voice. It's really strange that you have to trick it into doing what you want sometimes.
 
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