Making our Pockets Fat again AGAIN PT 2 - Official Gambling Thread

[BucciMane]

Did two different six player PrizePicks plays today. The first one I hit the first four legs so far. I need Yamal to attempt more than 54 1/2 passes and I need Agbadou to attempt more than 42 1/2 passes. That will be for a +3650.

I have one other play going on for a +3900, but none of the legs have started yet.

 

[BucciMane]

Alright, so I have hit the first five legs of my +3650, and I need one more save by the Fc Metz goalie in the game against PSG to keep my other play alive. That play is a +3900.

If that hits, this is what I'm looking at and trying to figure out what I want to do.



-The play that has 5/6 legs hit already, I have Agbadou with over 42 1/2 passes attempted.

-The play that I have where I need the goalie to make one more save, I have Agbadou with over 39 1/2 passes attempted and Rice with over 60 1/2 passes attempted.


IF I get that save by the goalie, I think I will hedge, but it sucks because the line for Agbadou is 39 1/2 passes attempted right now, so I can't really hedge the 42 1/2 passes attempted. I think I would just take the under on the 39 1/2 passes attempted and under on the 60 1/2 passes at +200.

 

[VegetasHairline]

broke my rules and put Siakam on a play and that motherfukker missed by 2. Dillon Brooks missed by 3, Gobert missed by 2. Only guy to hit on this one was fukkin Westbrook. NBA is pissing me off so much this season.

 

[BucciMane]

Alright, so I have hit the first five legs of my +3650, and I need one more save by the Fc Metz goalie in the game against PSG to keep my other play alive. That play is a +3900.

If that hits, this is what I'm looking at and trying to figure out what I want to do.



-The play that has 5/6 legs hit already, I have Agbadou with over 42 1/2 passes attempted.

-The play that I have where I need the goalie to make one more save, I have Agbadou with over 39 1/2 passes attempted and Rice with over 60 1/2 passes attempted.


IF I get that save by the goalie, I think I will hedge, but it sucks because the line for Agbadou is 39 1/2 passes attempted right now, so I can't really hedge the 42 1/2 passes attempted. I think I would just take the under on the 39 1/2 passes attempted and under on the 60 1/2 passes at +200.

I almost completely butchered hedging this. I can't really hedge this play without taking a lot of risk.

-The play where I need one leg to hit, I need Agbadou at over 42 1/2 passes attempted. The one where I need two legs to hit, I have him at over 39 1/2 passes attempted. If I hedge taking the under on both players (Agbadou at 39 1/2 passes attempted now), and he lands at 40, 41, or 42 with Rice hitting the over, then I'd be toast. I might kick myself for this, but I think I'll let it ride.



@MikelArteta

If a team is clearly superior in soccer, do the defenders typically have less passes during those games as much of the action will be the other way, or do they still get a lot of action?

 

[BucciMane]

Annnnnddddd, of course the final leg is going to be the one to cost me..

 

[BucciMane]

WOAT sport to bet on. .

 

[BucciMane]

This fraud had eight passes attempted in the first half. Ended up with 32. My fault for not realized the Wolves are in last place and wouldn't have much possession at all. I was figuring since the guy is a defender that he'd get a decent amount of touches.