The box score era is over.
With SportVU cameras hanging in the rafters tracking millions of data points per game and statisticians crunching spreadsheets full of lineup information, we can look outside the box score and finally move into the 21st century in NBA player evaluation. Exit points per game, enter real plus-minus.
To recap, real plus-minus (RPM) is ESPN's value metric, developed by stat gurus Jeremias Engelmann and Steve Ilardi, which estimates a player's on-court impact on team performance on both ends of the floor. RPM factors in teammate and opponent quality among other factors, making it more nuanced than your typical all-in-one metric that strictly looks at box score contributions. With the first batch of real plus-minus coming out earlier this month, let's take a look at players who are overrated by conventional statistics found in the box score and give proper due to those who do the little things in the box score's blind spot.
Underrated role players
ChandlerTyson Chandler, C, Dallas Mavericks
ORPM: +2.4 | DRPM: +3.6 |RPM: +6.0 | WAR: 3.8
How does a guy who barely takes six shots per game end up as one of the league's most impactful players? By owning the most sacred land in the game: the paint. He's shooting a baffling 67.9 percent from the floor, which creates spacing for his teammates via his ominous pick-and-roll dives to the rim. For fear of the towering alley-oop, defenses reflexively collapse to the paint after his hard screens, which affords shooters with just enough daylight to rain from downtown.
Chandler's job defensively is to put out fires. The 32-year-old has had the tough task of keeping the Mavericks afloat while starting next to four "minus" defenders. Rajon Rondo's arrival could help if the point guard puts in better effort than he has in Boston. Though Chandler's block rate isn't elite, he's incredibly skilled at defending without fouling (his 2.7 fouls per 36 minutes is a career low) and finishing defensive possessions by cleaning the glass. Dallas wouldn't sniff its current 57-win pace without him.
GreenDraymond Green, F, Golden State Warriors
ORPM: +0.5 | DRPM: +3.8 |RPM: +4.3 | WAR: 3.3
Plus-minus metrics like RPM were built for guys like Green. His box score numbers are fairly pedestrian for a power forward. He's averaging 13 points and eight rebounds with 44.9 percent shooting from the floor. Meh. However, he crushes everything in between. He's an elite passer (especially on outlets), an improved 3-point shooter and a Swiss Army knife defensively; he can switch on just about any position on the floor.
Coaches kill for guys like him. Evidence of Green doing all the little things: he has registered a plus-minus in the negative in just three of his 24 games this season. In other words, the Warriors excel almost every time he steps on the floor. Green will be a free agent this offseason and RPM says he should be paid an annual eight figures.
JohnsonAmir Johnson, PF, Toronto Raptors
ORPM: +0.5 | DRPM: +3.8 |RPM: +4.3 | WAR: 3.3
The perennial plus-minus darling just won't quit. For the eighth straight season, Johnson's teams have been better with him on the floor than when he's on the bench. With a high waist and long frame, the 27-year-old sets some of the meanest screens in the NBA and thrives in rim runs a la Tyson Chandler. According to Synergy tracking, Johnson has the fourth-best efficiency in the pick-and-roll plays in the NBA (minimum 50 plays), earning 1.34 points every time he tries to score in that action.
He's an elite finisher around the rim (70.5 percent inside three feet) and attacks the offensive boards to extend possessions for the Raps. He makes sound decisions on the defensive end and has the length and athleticism to bother both 4s and 5s in the paint. He hasn't registered a double-double since opening night, but he consistently gives the Raptors great minutes.
AllenTony Allen, G, Memphis Grizzlies
ORPM: -1.1 | DRPM: +2.4 | RPM:+1.3 | WAR: 1.2
He can't shoot. He can't pass. He can't dribble. But the Grindfather helps you win games. He's a defensive specialist who ranks second in steal rate while also locking down the opposing team's best perimeter player. That's not easy to do, especially at 33 years old. But TA works magic.
Though it might seem like Memphis is playing 4-on-5 on offense at times, Allen's ubiquitous presence defensively makes it seem like 5-on-8 the other way. Coach Dave Joerger deserves credit for minimizing Allen's liabilities. Amazingly, the Grizzlies are scoring 108.6 points per 100 possessions with Allen on the floor, which is better than Cleveland's offensive efficiency. Allen's teams have been better with him on the floor for five consecutive seasons and this season is no different.
RobersonAndre Roberson, G, Oklahoma City Thunder
ORPM: -1.1 | DRPM: +3.1 | RPM:+2.0 | WAR: 1.0
You look at his 9.7 PER and you wonder how he has a starting gig next to Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook. But then you peel back the layers. Did you know that opponents are shooting just 31.7 percent with Roberson as the defender? According to NBAsavant.com, that's the lowest defender field goal percentage in the NBA (minimum 100 shots). The guy is an absolute pest.
And then there's this: the Oklahoma City Thunder allow just 90.5 points per 100 possessions with Roberson on the floor -- the second-stingiest on-court rating for any regular not named Dwight Howard. He can't shoot worth a lick (he's missed 18 of 19 3-point attempts this season), but he makes up for it with his defensive tenacity and gritty rebounding. Thanks to his power forward upbringing, he's one of the best at cleaning the glass at his size (7.7 boards per 36 minutes). The guy hasn't scored more than five points in any of his past 13 appearances, but he's a plus-105 over that time. Playing next to Durant and Westbrook has helped, but he's the selfless glue guy they need.
Overrated scorers
BryantKobe Bryant, G, Los Angeles Lakers
ORPM: -0.2 | DRPM: -2.9 | RPM:-3.1 | WAR: -0.3
Yes, offensive RPM says that Bryant is hurting the Lakers' offense even though he's averaging more than 25 points per game. As I pointed out in the BIG Number, Bryant alone has taken more contested midrange jumpers than 12 NBA teams, according to NBAsavant.com. And he's been below average in making them. That predictable inefficiency has dragged the Lakers' offensive output down to just 101.9 points per 100 possessions.
It's about as hollow a 25.2 points per game as it gets. At this stage of his career, he's done being a plus defender. With all of his energy and attention devoted to the offensive end, he ranks dead last in defensive RPM. He dies on off-ball screens and routinely gambles for steals, which leaves his teammates out to dry. But hey, as long as he's playing, we'll keep watching.
ParkerTony Parker, G, San Antonio Spurs
ORPM: -0.5 | DRPM: -2.4 | RPM:-2.9 | WAR: -0.2
Didn't expect to see this, huh? For my money, this is the most surprising RPM figure of all. Parker, one of the worst point guards in the league? His box score stats seem normal. He's averaging a solid 16 points and 5.3 assists while shooting 50.9 percent from the floor and a ludicrous 65.4 percent from deep. But then you see his turnover rate has ballooned to 16.6 percent, his highest since his rookie season, and his rebound rate has fallen to career-low depths.
And the scoreboard hasn't been kind to Parker. The Spurs have been 2.5 points per 100 possessions more efficient offensively with Parker riding the bench and 3.1 points stingier per 100 possessions on the defensive end. It's certainly possible that Parker has lost a step at age 32, but he's also been dealing with a bum hamstring and a cracked rib. Given his track record, Parker's RPM standing doesn't seem permanent.
WaitersDion Waiters, G, Cleveland Cavaliers
ORPM: -1.9 | DRPM: -1.8 | RPM: -3.6 | WAR: -0.4
Waiters has seen better days. After being the fourth overall pick in the 2012 draft, Waiters has struggled to find a winning role at the NBA level. Instead of thriving next to his new star counterparts, Waiters has watched his efficiency bottom out all the way down to a 46.9 true shooting percentage in his third season. Only Michael Carter-Williamsand Josh Smith have been less efficient with a usage rate north of 22 percent.
One would think that Waiters would thrive against second units, but he's having more trouble than ever getting to the rim. His free throw rate has been sliced in half and his defensive apathy makes him unplayable in crunch time. Though he averages 15.4 points every 36 minutes, he routinely registers empty minutes. He's seen a positive plus-minus in just five of his 23 appearances, which is hard to do with all that talent around him.
SmithJ.R. Smith, G, New York Knicks
ORPM: 0.0 | DRPM: -2.9 | RPM:-2.9 | WAR: -0.2
No surprise here. Smith has long been overrated by his point totals. RPM thought Smith broke even last season thanks to his 3-point shooting abilities, but he's having a dreadful season in that department. If Smith can't terrorize opponents from deep, the cupboard is bare. And he's shooting just 32.4 percent from beyond the arc this season and his scoring rate has sunk to a career-low 14.8 points per 36 minutes.
His defense has been a train wreck. Among shooting guards, only Kobe Bryant has been more problematic on the defensive end. That's at least excusable for Bryant, who is 36 years old and coming off two major leg injuries, but Smith hasn't even hit 30 years old yet. Considering how useless he's been this season, it might be best for team morale that he takes his time sitting out with his foot issues.
GreenJeff Green, F, Boston Celtics
ORPM: 0.0 | DRPM: -1.9 | RPM:-1.9 | WAR: 0.2
Boston is all yours now. As Rondo takes his talents to Dallas, Green will have to prove that his career year in the scoring column isn't just a Rondo-induced mirage. He's averaging a career-high 19.6 points per game while shooting a career-high 56.5 true shooting percentage. But his lukewarm offensive RPM suggests his value is narrow in scope.
He's not a floor-spacer (32.2 percent shooting from deep) and he almost never makes plays for others. Green's paltry assist rate trails those of Howard, Kenneth Faried and Amar'e Stoudemire. Though it's not a requirement to be a playmaker on a Rondo-led team, Green has never shown the ability to consistently make others around him better. His defense has long been overrated as RPM shows and it's startling to see that the Celtics have been 14 points per 100 possessions better with Green on the bench. Will he last long enough in Boston to make it right?
With SportVU cameras hanging in the rafters tracking millions of data points per game and statisticians crunching spreadsheets full of lineup information, we can look outside the box score and finally move into the 21st century in NBA player evaluation. Exit points per game, enter real plus-minus.
To recap, real plus-minus (RPM) is ESPN's value metric, developed by stat gurus Jeremias Engelmann and Steve Ilardi, which estimates a player's on-court impact on team performance on both ends of the floor. RPM factors in teammate and opponent quality among other factors, making it more nuanced than your typical all-in-one metric that strictly looks at box score contributions. With the first batch of real plus-minus coming out earlier this month, let's take a look at players who are overrated by conventional statistics found in the box score and give proper due to those who do the little things in the box score's blind spot.
Underrated role players
ChandlerTyson Chandler, C, Dallas Mavericks
ORPM: +2.4 | DRPM: +3.6 |RPM: +6.0 | WAR: 3.8
How does a guy who barely takes six shots per game end up as one of the league's most impactful players? By owning the most sacred land in the game: the paint. He's shooting a baffling 67.9 percent from the floor, which creates spacing for his teammates via his ominous pick-and-roll dives to the rim. For fear of the towering alley-oop, defenses reflexively collapse to the paint after his hard screens, which affords shooters with just enough daylight to rain from downtown.
Chandler's job defensively is to put out fires. The 32-year-old has had the tough task of keeping the Mavericks afloat while starting next to four "minus" defenders. Rajon Rondo's arrival could help if the point guard puts in better effort than he has in Boston. Though Chandler's block rate isn't elite, he's incredibly skilled at defending without fouling (his 2.7 fouls per 36 minutes is a career low) and finishing defensive possessions by cleaning the glass. Dallas wouldn't sniff its current 57-win pace without him.
GreenDraymond Green, F, Golden State Warriors
ORPM: +0.5 | DRPM: +3.8 |RPM: +4.3 | WAR: 3.3
Plus-minus metrics like RPM were built for guys like Green. His box score numbers are fairly pedestrian for a power forward. He's averaging 13 points and eight rebounds with 44.9 percent shooting from the floor. Meh. However, he crushes everything in between. He's an elite passer (especially on outlets), an improved 3-point shooter and a Swiss Army knife defensively; he can switch on just about any position on the floor.
Coaches kill for guys like him. Evidence of Green doing all the little things: he has registered a plus-minus in the negative in just three of his 24 games this season. In other words, the Warriors excel almost every time he steps on the floor. Green will be a free agent this offseason and RPM says he should be paid an annual eight figures.
JohnsonAmir Johnson, PF, Toronto Raptors
ORPM: +0.5 | DRPM: +3.8 |RPM: +4.3 | WAR: 3.3
The perennial plus-minus darling just won't quit. For the eighth straight season, Johnson's teams have been better with him on the floor than when he's on the bench. With a high waist and long frame, the 27-year-old sets some of the meanest screens in the NBA and thrives in rim runs a la Tyson Chandler. According to Synergy tracking, Johnson has the fourth-best efficiency in the pick-and-roll plays in the NBA (minimum 50 plays), earning 1.34 points every time he tries to score in that action.
He's an elite finisher around the rim (70.5 percent inside three feet) and attacks the offensive boards to extend possessions for the Raps. He makes sound decisions on the defensive end and has the length and athleticism to bother both 4s and 5s in the paint. He hasn't registered a double-double since opening night, but he consistently gives the Raptors great minutes.
AllenTony Allen, G, Memphis Grizzlies
ORPM: -1.1 | DRPM: +2.4 | RPM:+1.3 | WAR: 1.2
He can't shoot. He can't pass. He can't dribble. But the Grindfather helps you win games. He's a defensive specialist who ranks second in steal rate while also locking down the opposing team's best perimeter player. That's not easy to do, especially at 33 years old. But TA works magic.
Though it might seem like Memphis is playing 4-on-5 on offense at times, Allen's ubiquitous presence defensively makes it seem like 5-on-8 the other way. Coach Dave Joerger deserves credit for minimizing Allen's liabilities. Amazingly, the Grizzlies are scoring 108.6 points per 100 possessions with Allen on the floor, which is better than Cleveland's offensive efficiency. Allen's teams have been better with him on the floor for five consecutive seasons and this season is no different.
RobersonAndre Roberson, G, Oklahoma City Thunder
ORPM: -1.1 | DRPM: +3.1 | RPM:+2.0 | WAR: 1.0
You look at his 9.7 PER and you wonder how he has a starting gig next to Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook. But then you peel back the layers. Did you know that opponents are shooting just 31.7 percent with Roberson as the defender? According to NBAsavant.com, that's the lowest defender field goal percentage in the NBA (minimum 100 shots). The guy is an absolute pest.
And then there's this: the Oklahoma City Thunder allow just 90.5 points per 100 possessions with Roberson on the floor -- the second-stingiest on-court rating for any regular not named Dwight Howard. He can't shoot worth a lick (he's missed 18 of 19 3-point attempts this season), but he makes up for it with his defensive tenacity and gritty rebounding. Thanks to his power forward upbringing, he's one of the best at cleaning the glass at his size (7.7 boards per 36 minutes). The guy hasn't scored more than five points in any of his past 13 appearances, but he's a plus-105 over that time. Playing next to Durant and Westbrook has helped, but he's the selfless glue guy they need.
Overrated scorers
BryantKobe Bryant, G, Los Angeles Lakers
ORPM: -0.2 | DRPM: -2.9 | RPM:-3.1 | WAR: -0.3
Yes, offensive RPM says that Bryant is hurting the Lakers' offense even though he's averaging more than 25 points per game. As I pointed out in the BIG Number, Bryant alone has taken more contested midrange jumpers than 12 NBA teams, according to NBAsavant.com. And he's been below average in making them. That predictable inefficiency has dragged the Lakers' offensive output down to just 101.9 points per 100 possessions.
It's about as hollow a 25.2 points per game as it gets. At this stage of his career, he's done being a plus defender. With all of his energy and attention devoted to the offensive end, he ranks dead last in defensive RPM. He dies on off-ball screens and routinely gambles for steals, which leaves his teammates out to dry. But hey, as long as he's playing, we'll keep watching.
ParkerTony Parker, G, San Antonio Spurs
ORPM: -0.5 | DRPM: -2.4 | RPM:-2.9 | WAR: -0.2
Didn't expect to see this, huh? For my money, this is the most surprising RPM figure of all. Parker, one of the worst point guards in the league? His box score stats seem normal. He's averaging a solid 16 points and 5.3 assists while shooting 50.9 percent from the floor and a ludicrous 65.4 percent from deep. But then you see his turnover rate has ballooned to 16.6 percent, his highest since his rookie season, and his rebound rate has fallen to career-low depths.
And the scoreboard hasn't been kind to Parker. The Spurs have been 2.5 points per 100 possessions more efficient offensively with Parker riding the bench and 3.1 points stingier per 100 possessions on the defensive end. It's certainly possible that Parker has lost a step at age 32, but he's also been dealing with a bum hamstring and a cracked rib. Given his track record, Parker's RPM standing doesn't seem permanent.
WaitersDion Waiters, G, Cleveland Cavaliers
ORPM: -1.9 | DRPM: -1.8 | RPM: -3.6 | WAR: -0.4
Waiters has seen better days. After being the fourth overall pick in the 2012 draft, Waiters has struggled to find a winning role at the NBA level. Instead of thriving next to his new star counterparts, Waiters has watched his efficiency bottom out all the way down to a 46.9 true shooting percentage in his third season. Only Michael Carter-Williamsand Josh Smith have been less efficient with a usage rate north of 22 percent.
One would think that Waiters would thrive against second units, but he's having more trouble than ever getting to the rim. His free throw rate has been sliced in half and his defensive apathy makes him unplayable in crunch time. Though he averages 15.4 points every 36 minutes, he routinely registers empty minutes. He's seen a positive plus-minus in just five of his 23 appearances, which is hard to do with all that talent around him.
SmithJ.R. Smith, G, New York Knicks
ORPM: 0.0 | DRPM: -2.9 | RPM:-2.9 | WAR: -0.2
No surprise here. Smith has long been overrated by his point totals. RPM thought Smith broke even last season thanks to his 3-point shooting abilities, but he's having a dreadful season in that department. If Smith can't terrorize opponents from deep, the cupboard is bare. And he's shooting just 32.4 percent from beyond the arc this season and his scoring rate has sunk to a career-low 14.8 points per 36 minutes.
His defense has been a train wreck. Among shooting guards, only Kobe Bryant has been more problematic on the defensive end. That's at least excusable for Bryant, who is 36 years old and coming off two major leg injuries, but Smith hasn't even hit 30 years old yet. Considering how useless he's been this season, it might be best for team morale that he takes his time sitting out with his foot issues.
GreenJeff Green, F, Boston Celtics
ORPM: 0.0 | DRPM: -1.9 | RPM:-1.9 | WAR: 0.2
Boston is all yours now. As Rondo takes his talents to Dallas, Green will have to prove that his career year in the scoring column isn't just a Rondo-induced mirage. He's averaging a career-high 19.6 points per game while shooting a career-high 56.5 true shooting percentage. But his lukewarm offensive RPM suggests his value is narrow in scope.
He's not a floor-spacer (32.2 percent shooting from deep) and he almost never makes plays for others. Green's paltry assist rate trails those of Howard, Kenneth Faried and Amar'e Stoudemire. Though it's not a requirement to be a playmaker on a Rondo-led team, Green has never shown the ability to consistently make others around him better. His defense has long been overrated as RPM shows and it's startling to see that the Celtics have been 14 points per 100 possessions better with Green on the bench. Will he last long enough in Boston to make it right?
