The box score era is over.
With SportVU cameras hanging in the rafters tracking millions of data points per game and statisticians crunching spreadsheets full of lineup information, we can look outside the box score and finally move into the 21st century in NBA player evaluation. Exit points per game, enter real plus-minus.
To recap, real plus-minus (RPM) is ESPN's value metric, developed by stat gurus Jeremias Engelmann and Steve Ilardi, which estimates a player's on-court impact on team performance on both ends of the floor. RPM factors in teammate and opponent quality among other factors, making it more nuanced than your typical all-in-one metric that strictly looks at box score contributions. With the first batch of real plus-minus coming out earlier this month, let's take a look at players who are overrated by conventional statistics found in the box score and give proper due to those who do the little things in the box score's blind spot.
Underrated role players
Roberson
Andre Roberson, G, Oklahoma City Thunder
ORPM: -1.1 |
DRPM: +3.1 |
RPM:+2.0 |
WAR: 1.0
You look at his 9.7 PER and you wonder how he has a starting gig next to
Kevin Durant and
Russell Westbrook. But then you peel back the layers. Did you know that opponents are shooting just 31.7 percent with Roberson as the defender? According to NBAsavant.com, that's the lowest defender field goal percentage in the NBA (minimum 100 shots). The guy is an absolute pest.
And then there's this: the Oklahoma City Thunder allow just 90.5 points per 100 possessions with Roberson on the floor -- the second-stingiest on-court rating for any regular not named
Dwight Howard. He can't shoot worth a lick (he's missed 18 of 19 3-point attempts this season), but he makes up for it with his defensive tenacity and gritty rebounding. Thanks to his power forward upbringing, he's one of the best at cleaning the glass at his size (7.7 boards per 36 minutes). The guy hasn't scored more than five points in any of his past 13 appearances, but he's a plus-105 over that time. Playing next to Durant and Westbrook has helped, but he's the selfless glue guy they need.