Official Israel Vs. Iran 2025 thread: First post updates! US/Israel attacks set Iran back months at best. Ceasefire in effect. Everybody wins(?)

Afro

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Analysis: Oil prices jump following US strikes​

By James Sillars, business and economics reporter

A 4% lift to oil prices.

It's the first financial market response to the US military action against Iran's nuclear facilities.

Brent crude is trading above $80 a barrel for the first time since January at the start of the trading week in Asia. It takes the rise in oil costs to 25% this month alone.

Prices have risen as Israel's campaign against Iran has gathered intensity.

Experts had widely warned last week that a level above $100 would easily be achieved in the event of disruption to oil supplies.
We are not there yet.

The big risk is that Iran moves to close the Strait of Hormuz - the Gulf shipping lanes that are a vital arterial route for both oil and gas supplies. The strait handles a fifth of global oil volumes and about a quarter of natural gas flows.

Oil tankers pass through the Strait of Hormuz

Oil tankers pass through the Strait of HormuzReuters

Any disruption to those exports would create a price shock similar to the one we saw back in 2022 when Russia invaded Ukraine.

Higher wholesale costs feed through not just to petrol pumps and energy bills. They make manufacturing and even many services become more expensive as extra costs feed down supply chains.

UK natural gas costs were more than 25% up in the month to date in advance of the US attacks. Those prices tend to track those for oil, so we can expect a similar move when London opens for business.

The FTSE 100 is currently forecast to open about 0.5% down, according to IG's futures model.

That does not sound like a lot when there has been a major escalation in the Middle East conflict, but the index will be propped up by energy stocks benefiting from higher prices.
 

Nkrumah Was Right

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@Silver Surfer : “President Xi, save us!” :sadbron:









:russ::mjlol::mjgrin:

So the Trump administration's position is that China should not have freedom of passage through the Panama Canal, but definitely should through the Straits of Hormuz, and that they should be very angry if they don't get that second one. Am I following correctly here?

You Trump fakkits kill me

@Silver Surfer
 

Afro

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The big question​

21:59​

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Frank Gardner
Security correspondent

The big question in all of this is an even more worrying one than "will Iran try to close the strategic Straitof Hormuz?" - although that would certainly have major economic, political and military consequences.

Instead, the gravest question of all, to which almost none of us know the answer is this:

Does Iran still retain enough Highly Enriched Uranium (HEU), hidden away at a secret underground location, plus the knowledge and the means to weaponise it, to now take a decision to race for a crude nuclear bomb?

In other words, have the combined US and Israeli attacks removed the threat of Iran becoming a nuclear-armed state – or made it more likely?

A military expert I have spoken to maintains that if Iran has managed to preserve enough of its HEU then its scientists should, if left to work unimpeded, be able to test a simple, first-generation gun-type device using a neutron initiator. This device, he says, is easier to engineer than an implosion device.

It has long been assumed that if Iran acquires the bomb then Saudi Arabia and other states in the Middle East will also try to acquire it, triggering a nuclear arms race.
 
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