Official War With Iran Thread

[Pressure]

Si guess Trump was telling the truth

 

[thatrapsfan]

 

[Jmare007]

Like I said, let that nutjob believe whatever story he needs to claim a W and bring this to a halt.

If these talks are just to buy time for the Marines to get to that damn island and Iran falls for it again though

 

[Liu Kang]

...

But we also have to stop pretending like they’re actual doing strategy. Or that the u military isn’t as advanced as it is.

In an ideal work Trump pulls out.

But we’re just as likely to see this get really ugly

The US will win most if not all battles because they are overwingly more powerful than Iran. I don't think anybody can make a case that Iran is winning or can win militarily, it doesn't make sense when you look at the numbers.

However, Iran doesn't have to win anything, they are playing defense so they just need to stay in the fight longer than the US can afford to win those battles and that has always been their strategy.

So I don't think the US will win the war from that POV. Iran's goal is survival and US's goal is regime change and we have 50 years of past examples that the most powerful militaries cannot make that happen

 

[MAKAVELI25]

Israel is basically trying to scuttle any negotiations. Both iran and us need an off ramp, israel is trying to " finish the job"

I agree that Israel has more of an escalatory goal than the US, but if Iran stops now, what will stop Trump from agreeing to attack them months or years down the line?

IMO, for effective long term deterrence, the Iranians would need to drag this out for weeks or months longer.

The US (and maybe Israel, because of reasons related to ammunition or other logistics) would be interested in short term cessation.

If Iran doesnt want this to ever happen again (or atleast in the short or medium term), I think their strategy would be to drag this on much longer to disincentive the US from repeating this AND to incentivize the rest of the world to more forcefully push back against this if the US wants to repeat.

Obviously this is all subject to how much of Iran's military infrastructure is left standing.

 

[Loose]

I agree that Israel has more of an escalatory goal than the US, but if Iran stops now, what will stop Trump from agreeing to attack them months or years down the line?

IMO, for effective long term deterrence, the Iranians would need to drag this out for weeks or months longer.

The US (and maybe Israel, because of reasons related to ammunition) would be interested in short term cessation.

If Iran doesnt want this to ever happen again (or atleast in the short or medium term), I think their strategy would be to drag this on much longer to disincentive the US to repeat this AND to incentivize the rest of the world to more forcefully push back against this if the US wants to repeat.

Obviously this is all subject to how much of their military infrastructure is left standing.

They're going to have to demand sanction relief to rebuild and an international promise to not be attacked again

 

[FAH1223]

 

[thatrapsfan]

I dont buy it, Ravid has been consistently reporting BS about this war. Same guy who reported that a ground invasion by Iranian Kurds was imminent a few weeks ago.


This account is supposed to be connected to IRGC and claims that the pause is a feint to prepare time for Gulf air defences, US ground troop deployments, and set the stage for new assassinations:

 

[thatrapsfan]

More evidence that this is likely a ruse.

 

[Hood Critic]

Buddy said him and the Ayatollah going to control the Strait. A.K.A Deebo and Red, it's like both of ours but I'ma just keep it at my house.

 

[MAKAVELI25]

They're going to have to demand sanction relief to rebuild and an international promise to not be attacked again

But if you're Iran, why would you rely on a promise? Even if the other nations agree to it, who's going to stop the US (and especially the current administration) if they decide to renege?

The US unilaterally pulled out of the JCPOA, also started this war while the Gulf states were begging them not to.

The US has at multiple times attacked Iran during negotiations. If I'm remembering correctly, Solemani was killed in Iraq while on his way to/or from meetings to negotiate.

The US, especially the Trump Administration (both 1 and 2) have proved to be untrustworthy partners and no other nations (whether in Europe or the Gulf) have the power to constrain them if they decide to act unilaterally.

Why would Iran rely on such a promise?

 

[Pressure]

The US will win most if not all battles because they are overwingly more powerful than Iran. I don't think anybody can make a case that Iran is winning or can win militarily, it doesn't make sense when you look at the numbers.

However, Iran doesn't have to win anything, they are playing defense so they just need to stay in the fight longer than the US can afford to win those battles and that has always been their strategy.

So I don't think the US will win the war from that POV. Iran's goal is survival and US's goal is regime change and we have 50 years of past examples that the most powerful militaries cannot make that happen

If Iran makes a deal, even the same deal that was on the table before, it’s hard to view this as anything other than a win for American Military diplomacy.

If you frame a US win as requiring regime change and a new democracy then of course you can say Iran won.

 

[Loose]

US goal is regime change, so if they make a deal they automatically lost. they're the aggressor, Iran is the defender

 

[Hood Critic]

If Iran makes a deal, even the same deal that was on the table before, it’s hard to view this as anything other than a win for American Military diplomacy.

If you frame a US win as requiring regime change and a new democracy then of course you can say Iran won.

We can't walk away claiming any kind of victory if we leave with what we already had, a nuclear proliferation agreement. We won't leave the region with anymore vested or controlled interest in the strait, our gulf allies will be billions in the hole, several american lives have been lost and a more hard lined regime will be in place.

The moment a ceasefire agreement is reached, Iran wins.

 

[MAKAVELI25]

If Iran makes a deal, even the same deal that was on the table before, it’s hard to view this as anything other than a win for American Military diplomacy.

If you frame a US win as requiring regime change and a new democracy then of course you can say Iran won.

So what, you spent billions of dollars, lost soldiers, hurt your image across the world, hurting the economy, etc., for a deal you already had in 2015? How is that a win for the US?

Man, Trump really suffers from the bigotry of low expectations.