Official War With Iran Thread

[88m3]

Iran names ex-IRGC commander to succeed Larijani as security chief

After Supreme National Security Council head Ali Larijani was killed in an Israeli strike, Mohammad Bagher Zolghadr, a long-serving former Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps commander, has been appointed to succeed him.

www.lemonde.fr

 

[LuuqMaan]

This like the second time he’s almost blaming the alcoholic

Hegseth doesn’t see it?

 

[DonFrancisco]

My guess it’s a famous division everyone knows and it’s a threat, negotiate or else.


If Trump wants to get busy for real you’d have to seize the strait and small tactical brigade would make sense.

What....I hardly comment in The Coli but please go outside and get a real job. This isn't some strategy game in your phone or PC.....this is real life.

 

[Jmare007]

The Iranian social media team probably hasn't slept in a week being forced to make all these IA videos

 

[Hood Critic]

Coli Milibrehs... I always knew Iran was no slouch, I have general sense of each major militarys strength, but specific in theater tactics I lose a lot discernment. How long can they hold this up?

I think the US won't actually put boots on the ground and is just sending carrier groups to intimidate, because that would be a slaughterhouse worse than Vietnam, but I'm waiting for the US to just go scorched earth. Can Iran realistically fight back if that happens? I know they will light the while middle east up, but would that be a one-shot or something they can sustain in perpetuity?

You’ll get a different POV from any one of us, but I could see Iran creating a scenario similar to Afghanistan but a lot more violent.

This administration wouldn’t have nearly the same restraint, and it would likely be a huge mess until embarrassment makes them step away and finally let experienced branch leaders make Independent decisions again, or at least stop removing the more adaptable minds who are “too diverse” or are considered “dei”.

It’s hard to say if Iran can even safely mass forces without Israel and the US exploiting air superiority.

I do know the terrain looks miserable, and makes it more difficult to force entry, broadly, like Iraq.

We just have to wait and see. So far it just looks like we eventually walk away embarrassed (which I’m fine with because there’s a lot less loss of life), or we’re stuck in something long lasting and stupid.

The specific theater tactics aren’t anything special, aside from drones everybody is doing either the basics or the more advanced version basics. Iran seems to be using the most improvisation to survive, so far.

I mostly agree with the above.

I feel like the combat deployments are mostly a threat, based on the numbers and known points of interest. To me this proves that the Iranians have told the administration to kick rocks via back channel negotiations or what they're saying openly that there have been no discussions and they decline any current attempts at a discussion. This administration believes in brute force and its the only tool they are comfortable with.

I still hold onto there only being two ways this can end, the administration finding a meaningless win to focus on and we retreat with an imaginary victory or his bluff continues to get called and he stumbles into world war 3 through a massive casualty event.

 

[wire28]

The Iranian social media probably hasn't slept in a week being forced to make all these IA videos

So a normal week?

 

[Mister Terrific]

Seizing and holding the Strait will make Iraq look like a lazy Sunday morning walking the dog.

Iran's coastline along the Strait is over 1000 miles. That's Southern California to the Canadian boarder and in range of every weapon that Iran has.

You can't control the strait with a small tactical brigade. You gotta OD on numbers so that whatever bullshyt Iran throws at you, you can sustain it and keep making ground. And for that you need to live with the fact you gonna lose a bunch of people and military infrastructure, knowing that politically that's a huge no-no.

Having small groups like sitting ducks in a specific part that can be bombed at will ain't gonna make a lick of a difference for opening the strait.

Obviously they would be used to take Kharg island not occupy the entire strait


Think taking on US soldiers in combat is sweet if you want to

Battle of Khasham - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

You’ll learn what the Russians learned.

I don’t think you guys understand modern combat. Every US soldier is going to be covered by enough ordinance to level a small city. Every once of sky for thousands of miles is going to be monitored. Anybody that so much as powers up a microwave is getting lit the fukk up

 

[Spidey Man]

Obviously they would be used to take Kharg island not occupy the entire strait


Think taking on US soldiers in combat is sweet if you want to

Which seems like an equally horrible decision, but what do I know?

 

[Jmare007]

Obviously they would be used to take Kharg island not occupy the entire strait


Think taking on US soldiers in combat is sweet if you want to

Battle of Khasham - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

You’ll learn what the Russians learned

Breh, how would holding that island lead to taking control of the strait?

 

[Mister Terrific]

Breh, how would holding that island lead to taking control of the strait?

90% of Irans oil is exported through the island. Seizing the island collapses the Iranian economy. At that point Iran would theoretically surrender the strait.

 

[Jmare007]

90% of Irans oil is exported through the island. Seizing the island collapses the Iranian economy. At that point Iran would theoretically surrender the strait.

I do not think the regime, specially without the Ayatollah that just got killed, will decide their economic well being is more important than cause more damage at that stage of the conflict. By the time Kharg is "taken", they'd be ready to fukk shyt up in a worse way they are already doing. I think you are giving them too much rationale credit, specially without the Supreme Leader that used to force them to step back and take Ls (and come up with propaganda to save face).

 

[Mister Terrific]

A lot of posturing on both sides but if Britain is agreeing to help patrol the strait I would say we are winding down.

 

[Hood Critic]

90% of Irans oil is exported through the island. Seizing the island collapses the Iranian economy. At that point Iran would theoretically surrender the strait.

Taking the island is the easy part, it's HOLDING the island that's the hard part. US troops become sitting ducks on an island well within striking range. Also, the Houthis in Yemen are going to close Bab el-Mandeb Strait if this happens.

This isn't as cut and dry as it seems.

 

[Mister Terrific]

The U.S. 14 point framework presented to Iran:

• Full dismantlement of accumulated nuclear capabilities

• Binding commitment never to pursue nuclear weapons

• Zero enrichment permitted on Iranian soil

• All enriched material transferred to the IAEA on an accelerated timeline

• Natanz, Isfahan, and Fordow to be decommissioned and destroyed

• Full transparency with the IAEA across all nuclear activities

• End of the proxy warfare doctrine

• Immediate halt to funding and arming regional proxies

• Strait of Hormuz guaranteed open as a free maritime corridor

• Missile program to face future limits on range and quantity

• Short range missiles restricted strictly to defensive use

• Full sanctions relief for Iran

• Support for a civilian nuclear project in Bushehr for electricity generation

• Removal of the snapback sanctions mechanism

 

[FAH1223]