The pooling was inaccurate last time because they undercounted the white working class and didn't give them enough weighting. That's been adjusted for, so most likely they may be slightly over counting them.
The best way to know what's really going on? Mitch McConnell.
Trump desperately wants that $2 trillion stimulus package along with Mnuchin and Pelosi. McConnell is only willing to do the Paycheck Protection for businesses at $500 billion. Why? Because he knows that Trump is gonna lose and the GOP doesn't want to give Biden a boost with the economy.
GOP spends money like crazy but tightens the purse strings as soon as a Democrat gets in the WH. A lot of GOP senators don't want to help regular Americans and McConnell knows that if the $2 trillion deal hits the Senate floor.....they'll have to pick a side. Vote Yes? They give Biden a boost. Vote No? Senators in competitive races might lose votes when people see that they DID NOT vote to help struggling people.
As for Texas? Texas is not a true red state like Oklahoma, Wyoming etc.
Texas is red because the state as a whole has embarrassingly low turnout. Demographically, we should be a swing state AT LEAST. The cities are blue but the rural counties are 90% Republican. Problem is that the cities and close burbs are growing and getting bluer over time. Republicans can't squeeze any more votes out of small town Texas because they already vote with strong numbers.
Republicans focus on Ohio, Florida etc., but Texas......they cannot win without Texas. If Democrats can get California, Illinois, New York and Texas.....there's no path for the GOP. They're so focused on Pennsylvania and Florida right now but Texas is going to be a big problem for them.
The irony is that Texas is "pro business" and has encouraged a lot of major companies to move here. Those companies are bringing employees that are helping to turn Texas bluer.