Scenario A: Flossmoor IL.
TL,DR:
The buyer is up by $619K (home appreciation) + $980K (money saved from buying that is invested) = $1.6M
The renter is up by $931K (invested his down payment in the market)
The buyer wins, by $669K over 30 years.
Details:
3 bed 2.5 bath house, listed for $300K. I'm going to throw this in my rent vs buy spreadsheet as a demonstration of how it can be better to rent or buy depending on the situation.
Ok, so here are the assumptions on the buy side:
Mortgage term: 30 years
Down payment: 20% (no PMI required)
Closing costs: 4% (buy), 6% (sell)
Maintenance costs: 0.5% per annum
Property tax on this property: 2.46% per annum
Home insurance: 0.04% per month
Over the last 30 years, homes nationally have appreciated at an average of 3.8% per annum. So I'm using that for home appreciation. House prices have shot up in the last 2-3 years but it would be foolish to expect that to last.
Alright, so after a 30 year mortgage, the home has appreciated by $618K. Remove selling costs, adjusting for mortgage interest tax deduction, and you're up by $619K.
Let's move over to the rent side.
Ok, so I attempted to find rent information in Flossmoor for an equivalent sized house/apartment. On Realtor.com, I found a 4 Bed 2 Bath house in Park Forest, IL (11 minutes away) renting for $1950 per month.
Assumptions on the rent side:
Annual rent appreciation: 4.50%
Renters insurance: $180 per year
Annual stock market rise: 9.8%
Now, remember that on the buy side, a security deposit of 60,000 was placed down. Instead, we invest that in the stock market. After 30 years it has appreciated to $991K, for a net profit of $931K.
Now, what we have to do is see what the delta in monthly expenses is between the renter and buyer, and then see who comes off better.
In this instance, the buyer comes out ahead over 30 years by $980K. Despite the renter having an early advantage, after 3 years, the rent grows to the point that the buyer is throwing less money away than the renter.
So in summary:
The buyer is up by $619K + $980K = $1.6M
The renter is up by $931K.
The buyer wins, by $669K over 30 years.