interesting Wil Myers could still be a beast but not at petco but he would kill at philly park
The 2014-15 MLB Hot Stove Thread
- Thread starter Regular_P
- Start date
interesting Wil Myers could still be a beast but not at petco but he would kill at philly park
Uggla to have impact in DC?
December, 27, 2014
Dec 27
10:45
AM ET
By AJ Mass | ESPN Insider
Could the Washington Nationals have found their starting second baseman for the 2015 season in the form of Dan Uggla? It's certainly in the conversation after the team signed the veteran to a minor league deal on Friday that includes an invitation to spring training.
The financial risk to the Nationals is minimal, as Uggla is still getting paid $13 million by the Atlanta Braves for 2015. As Chelsea Janes of the Washington Post notes, "should Uggla steady himself offensively and show no drop in power, his veteran presence and uncommon middle-infield pop make him a legitimate contender for time" at a second base job she calls "currently the most unsettled position in an otherwise well-settled starting lineup."
Pete Kerzel of MASN Sports has written that the incumbent second baseman, Danny Espinosa, "has a good glove, right-handed power and the ability to play a couple of positions -- but I'm not sure the Nats are comfortable going into the season with him as their starting second baseman."
December, 27, 2014
Dec 27
10:45
AM ET
By AJ Mass | ESPN Insider
Could the Washington Nationals have found their starting second baseman for the 2015 season in the form of Dan Uggla? It's certainly in the conversation after the team signed the veteran to a minor league deal on Friday that includes an invitation to spring training.
The financial risk to the Nationals is minimal, as Uggla is still getting paid $13 million by the Atlanta Braves for 2015. As Chelsea Janes of the Washington Post notes, "should Uggla steady himself offensively and show no drop in power, his veteran presence and uncommon middle-infield pop make him a legitimate contender for time" at a second base job she calls "currently the most unsettled position in an otherwise well-settled starting lineup."
Pete Kerzel of MASN Sports has written that the incumbent second baseman, Danny Espinosa, "has a good glove, right-handed power and the ability to play a couple of positions -- but I'm not sure the Nats are comfortable going into the season with him as their starting second baseman."
9:33
AM ET
By AJ Mass | ESPN Insider
It looks as though Hiroki Kuroda will not be pitching for the New York Yankees, or any other MLB team in 2015, as reports have surfaced that have the Japanese veteran returning to his home country to play for the Hiroshima Toyo Carp.
As Andrew Marchand of ESPN New York notes, "Kuroda was perhaps the most durable starter in the Yankees rotation the past three seasons. He worked 199 innings in 2014 after exceeding 200 in his first two seasons with New York and the final season with the Dodgers."
The free agent's official departure means the Yankees rotation to start the year (as it currently stands) would appear to consist of Masahiro Tanaka, CC Sabathia, Michael Pineda, Nathan Eovaldi and Chris Capuano, with Max Scherzer" target="_blank">no stated plans to go after any other arms -- not even Max Scherzer -- at the present time.
Will Cleveland extend Kluber?
December, 26, 2014
Dec 26
11:15
AM ET
By AJ Mass | ESPN Insider
Pitcher Corey Kluber of the Cleveland Indians may have won the 2014 AL Cy Young Award, but due to his relatively small amount of service time, he's not eligible for arbitration until after the 2015 season.
ESPN.com's Jim Bowden thinks that Kluber should get a contract extension from the Indians now: "Kluber would definitely be the most difficult of all the young players to sign, coming off a Cy Young Award-winning season. But to begin the process with three months of negotiating time would at the very least show him how much the team believes in the season he just had and the importance of keeping him an Indian for many years."
"In all likelihood, a deal doesn't get done at this time; instead, it gets tabled for next offseason. So if Kluber were to take a step back performance-wise, the price might come down. Teams always like to extend players before they break out, like the Indians did last year with Michael Brantley. Imagine how much more expensive he would be this offseason had the Indians not locked him up to a multiyear deal in 2013. In this case, the Indians are a year too late. It's amazing how it seems to balance out."
Bowden is not alone in his support for an extension here. Paul Hoynes of the Cleveland Plain Dealer wrote about what he wished each member of the Indians organization would receive as a gift this holiday season, and for Kluber he requested "a multiyear deal that benefits him and the Indians."
Betts future in Boston set?
December, 25, 2014
Dec 25
11:04
AM ET
By AJ Mass | ESPN Insider
Since the end of the season, it's been clear that other teams have been hoping to pry Mookie Betts away from the Boston Red Sox. In fact, as far back as September, Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe wrote that "judging by conversations with scouts around the league, he's the Red Sox prospect teams want most in a deal."
However, John Tomase of the Boston Herald writes that there's a very good reason why the Red Sox have declined to make Betts available to teams during this offseason's trade discussions: "When the Red Sox open the season on April 6 in Philadelphia, Betts will be starting in the outfield and batting leadoff, right where he belongs."
Tomase points out that "as a group, Sox leadoff hitters batted .269 with a .330 on-base percentage, eight homers and 17 steals. Those final numbers received a boost from Betts' 22 games there — .310 with a .388 on base percentage and three steals. Add his power -- an OPS of nearly .950 during his final two years in the minors -- and Betts has a chance to become a legit replacement for Jacoby Ellsbury, albeit with fewer steals but a higher on-base percentage."
Does anyone want Scherzer?
December, 24, 2014
Dec 24
10:15
AM ET
By AJ Mass | ESPN Insider
As we approach the end of 2014, it doesn't look like a deal will get done for free-agent pitcher Max Scherzer before the turn of the calendar page. In fact, at the present time, the list of teams that say they are interested in pursuing the former Detroit Tigers ace may, in fact, be blank.
Ken Davidoff of the New York Post writes that he's not surprised that Scherzer is still without any suitors, as there simply don't seem to be any teams that he can go to, given his contract demands: "Many clubs, among them the Yankees, Red Sox, Giants and Dodgers, have been vocal about their disinclination to enter the Scherzer sweepstakes. The Angels are sending signals they're good to go with their current starting rotation. The Tigers and Nationals... also say they aren't going there."
"The small-market Cardinals never have gone so high on one player... The Cubs have the payroll flexibility to acquire Scherzer, even after getting Jon Lester, yet they, too, have publicly stated they won’t be shopping in the Scherzer aisle. The Blue Jays, who have upgraded considerably this winter by adding Josh Donaldson, Russell Martin and Michael Saunders, didn't even want to spend heavily on a reliever, so Scherzer seems out of their price range, too," he continues.
Certainly, at some point, one of these teams may choose to bite the proverbial bullet and put together an offer in the $200 million ballpark that the pitcher is believed to be seeking. However, the longer teams steer clear of Scherzer, the likelihood of him returning to the Tigers continues to approach the appearance of inevitability.
As Anthony Fenech of the Detorit Free Press points out, "The Tigers have proved they can afford a chunk of change with Scherzer's name on it. Last spring, they offered him a seven-year, $160-million contract extension... and though his market remains to be seen, the void in a once-vaunted Tigers' rotation is in plain sight."
AM ET
By AJ Mass | ESPN Insider
It looks as though Hiroki Kuroda will not be pitching for the New York Yankees, or any other MLB team in 2015, as reports have surfaced that have the Japanese veteran returning to his home country to play for the Hiroshima Toyo Carp.
As Andrew Marchand of ESPN New York notes, "Kuroda was perhaps the most durable starter in the Yankees rotation the past three seasons. He worked 199 innings in 2014 after exceeding 200 in his first two seasons with New York and the final season with the Dodgers."
The free agent's official departure means the Yankees rotation to start the year (as it currently stands) would appear to consist of Masahiro Tanaka, CC Sabathia, Michael Pineda, Nathan Eovaldi and Chris Capuano, with Max Scherzer" target="_blank">no stated plans to go after any other arms -- not even Max Scherzer -- at the present time.
Will Cleveland extend Kluber?
December, 26, 2014
Dec 26
11:15
AM ET
By AJ Mass | ESPN Insider
Pitcher Corey Kluber of the Cleveland Indians may have won the 2014 AL Cy Young Award, but due to his relatively small amount of service time, he's not eligible for arbitration until after the 2015 season.
ESPN.com's Jim Bowden thinks that Kluber should get a contract extension from the Indians now: "Kluber would definitely be the most difficult of all the young players to sign, coming off a Cy Young Award-winning season. But to begin the process with three months of negotiating time would at the very least show him how much the team believes in the season he just had and the importance of keeping him an Indian for many years."
"In all likelihood, a deal doesn't get done at this time; instead, it gets tabled for next offseason. So if Kluber were to take a step back performance-wise, the price might come down. Teams always like to extend players before they break out, like the Indians did last year with Michael Brantley. Imagine how much more expensive he would be this offseason had the Indians not locked him up to a multiyear deal in 2013. In this case, the Indians are a year too late. It's amazing how it seems to balance out."
Bowden is not alone in his support for an extension here. Paul Hoynes of the Cleveland Plain Dealer wrote about what he wished each member of the Indians organization would receive as a gift this holiday season, and for Kluber he requested "a multiyear deal that benefits him and the Indians."
Betts future in Boston set?
December, 25, 2014
Dec 25
11:04
AM ET
By AJ Mass | ESPN Insider
Since the end of the season, it's been clear that other teams have been hoping to pry Mookie Betts away from the Boston Red Sox. In fact, as far back as September, Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe wrote that "judging by conversations with scouts around the league, he's the Red Sox prospect teams want most in a deal."
However, John Tomase of the Boston Herald writes that there's a very good reason why the Red Sox have declined to make Betts available to teams during this offseason's trade discussions: "When the Red Sox open the season on April 6 in Philadelphia, Betts will be starting in the outfield and batting leadoff, right where he belongs."
Tomase points out that "as a group, Sox leadoff hitters batted .269 with a .330 on-base percentage, eight homers and 17 steals. Those final numbers received a boost from Betts' 22 games there — .310 with a .388 on base percentage and three steals. Add his power -- an OPS of nearly .950 during his final two years in the minors -- and Betts has a chance to become a legit replacement for Jacoby Ellsbury, albeit with fewer steals but a higher on-base percentage."
Does anyone want Scherzer?
December, 24, 2014
Dec 24
10:15
AM ET
By AJ Mass | ESPN Insider
As we approach the end of 2014, it doesn't look like a deal will get done for free-agent pitcher Max Scherzer before the turn of the calendar page. In fact, at the present time, the list of teams that say they are interested in pursuing the former Detroit Tigers ace may, in fact, be blank.
Ken Davidoff of the New York Post writes that he's not surprised that Scherzer is still without any suitors, as there simply don't seem to be any teams that he can go to, given his contract demands: "Many clubs, among them the Yankees, Red Sox, Giants and Dodgers, have been vocal about their disinclination to enter the Scherzer sweepstakes. The Angels are sending signals they're good to go with their current starting rotation. The Tigers and Nationals... also say they aren't going there."
"The small-market Cardinals never have gone so high on one player... The Cubs have the payroll flexibility to acquire Scherzer, even after getting Jon Lester, yet they, too, have publicly stated they won’t be shopping in the Scherzer aisle. The Blue Jays, who have upgraded considerably this winter by adding Josh Donaldson, Russell Martin and Michael Saunders, didn't even want to spend heavily on a reliever, so Scherzer seems out of their price range, too," he continues.
Certainly, at some point, one of these teams may choose to bite the proverbial bullet and put together an offer in the $200 million ballpark that the pitcher is believed to be seeking. However, the longer teams steer clear of Scherzer, the likelihood of him returning to the Tigers continues to approach the appearance of inevitability.
As Anthony Fenech of the Detorit Free Press points out, "The Tigers have proved they can afford a chunk of change with Scherzer's name on it. Last spring, they offered him a seven-year, $160-million contract extension... and though his market remains to be seen, the void in a once-vaunted Tigers' rotation is in plain sight."
Picks to click: 2015 breakout hitters
December, 27, 2014
Dec 27
12:53
PM ET
By Christina Kahrl | ESPN.com
Jonathan Ernst/Getty ImagesAfter two injury-abbreviated seasons, will Manny Machado break out big in 2015?
With 2015 around the corner, it’s easy to focus on what’s new -- new players on your teams, new rookies, new chances. But how about those guys who might be ready to ratchet up a whole new level of production? It is, as Mike Royko put it describing his joy on seeing Cubs shortstop Shawon Dunston learn to lay off an outside breaking ball, part of what being a fan is all about, because you get to see someone already good enough to be one of the best players on the planet become greater still.
Diving into a list of guys who should break out in 2015, let’s set aside the rookies we know are going to make some noise. Yes, Kris Bryant, Joc Pederson, Byron Buxton, Jorge Soler, Rusney Castillo -- we all expect big things in what ought to be a bumper crop of first-year players, but let’s set them aside for a different conversation. Instead, think of this as yesterday’s top prospects coming into their own now that their new-guy hype has faded, while including ACTA's Bill James projections and what Steamer at FanGraphs suggest they’ll do in the season to come.
1. Manny Machado, Orioles: .747 career OPS | 2015 James .765, Steamer .758
Including Machado might seem like a bit of a gimme, considering he’s now headed into his fourth season in the majors and has only shown incremental progress, picking up a couple of points on OPS each year. But his first spin was an in-season call-up, his second featured a big second-half fade (.807 OPS before the break, .647 after) and a season-ending knee injury, and his third was slowed by his recovery (taking the field in May without spring training), then ended early by reinjuring his right knee. But for all that, the guy only just turned 22 last summer, and despite that stack of setbacks, he’s already been productive. The projections are modest, but overlook the backstory; with health and a clean start, this could be the first year of many when he cranks out 80 extra-base hits.
2. George Springer, Astros: .804 career OPS | 2015 James .854, Steamer .772
He’s sort of like putting one scoop of Bryce Harper or Yasiel Puig and one of teammate Chris Carter in the same sundae, because you get the athleticism and the power to pound a league-leading tally in homers -- and strike out 200 times -- all in one baseball helmet dish. The fulcrum that will propel his career one way or another is his mastery of the strike zone, because after a swinging strike clip that’s almost twice big-league average (31.9 to 16.3 percent) as a rookie, if he sorts out what he needs to lay off of, he could go from impressive to dominant in short order.
3. Eric Hosmer, Royals: .747 career OPS | 2015 James .773, Steamer .779
There’s a decent cadre of semidisappointing first basemen to choose from, guys you might be hoping might take a big, Anthony Rizzo-level step forward, as Rizzo did last year. Yonder Alonso might be too far along and need a change of venue, while Brandon Belt has the bat but may not be durable enough. Hosmer is the guy in this group who’s younger than Rizzo, just heading into his age-25 season and into the beginning of what you’d consider to be a normal peak range for a hitter. If Hosmer’s performance down the stretch and into the postseason (.841 OPS in September, .983 in October) while working with new hitting coach Dale Sveum is any indication, he might finally start delivering in kind on the huge expectations Royals fans have piled on him for the last four years.
4. Yasmani Grandal, Dodgers: .763 career OPS | 2015 James .809, Steamer .735
Between getting dealt by the Reds before reaching the homer haven they call home, missing most of 2013 with a 50-game PED suspension and a knee injury, and the general anonymity that gets slathered onto all Padres, Grandal has yet to live up to the prospect billing that made him a 12th overall pick in the 2010 draft. But he’s only just begun, hitting 15 homers last year, and has already delivered an .802 career OPS on the road. Now that he’s escaped from the bat-sapping effects of Petco Park and is headed to a friendlier power environment in Dodger Stadium and into his prime age-26 season, expect the Dodgers to come off well on their side of the Matt Kemp swap.
5. Oswaldo Arcia, Twins: .743 career OPS | 2015 James .844, Steamer .790
Did you know Arcia hit 20 homers in a partial season last year, as a 23-year-old? Or that Bill James also pegged him for 30 homers this season? Blame the flyover market, blame all the prospect maven attention getting lavished on names like Buxton or Sano (not that there’s anything wrong with that), or blame the Twins’ four-year run of losing seasons, but Arcia is going to be a big part of the reason why the Twins’ brief run of irrelevance ends soon. Add in an AL Central where nobody should be a slam-dunk pick to win 90 games, and Arcia will be the new star slugger on a surprise contender.
6. Travis d’Arnaud, Mets: .683 career OPS | 2015 James .805, Steamer .744
The Mets have been used as a punchline for so long that it’s worth remembering that some of their long-term moves are about to start delivering, starting with d’Arnaud behind the plate. Another example that youth will be served, d’Arnaud is also headed into the heart of a normal peak range with his age-26 season on tap. After settling in last year as the Mets’ regular backstop, he posted a .787 OPS in the second half despite playing with a bum elbow. Lucas Duda was last year’s breakout Met; d’Arnaud will be that guy in 2015.
Which hitter will have the biggest breakout in 2015?
No more distractions, he’s a shortstop and gets to settle in. Given that he’s already yesterday’s news while the focus switches to the excitement over adding Pablo Sandoval, Mookie Betts and Castillo to the everyday lineup, it’s going to be fun to watch as Bogaerts quietly clouts 50 extra-base hits and closes the book on last year’s front-office-driven mayhem. Last year, MLB shortstops averaged a .678 OPS, and only five shortstops (including new Sox left fielder Hanley Ramirez) posted a better OPS than Bogaerts’ projection. Skip any disappointment, his stardom begins now.
8. Marcell Ozuna, Marlins: .746 career OPS | 2015 James .804, Steamer .744
When I turned to resident projection expert Dan Szymborski for his thoughts, he tabbed Ozuna, and it’s easy to understand why. Despite essentially skipping past Double-A and Triple-A on his way to the majors in 2013, Ozuna has shown off solid growth in his first two big-league seasons, posting a .772 OPS last year while ripping 23 homers. Headed into his age-24 season, it wouldn’t be shocking to see him take a big step forward.
9. Avisail Garcia, White Sox: .722 career OPS | 2015 James .783, Steamer .743
Remember him, that top Tigers prospect of yesteryear flipped to the South Side before he’d even settled in? Well, after missing most of 2014 with a shoulder injury, he’s back, healthy and still shy of his 24th birthday. And he gets to call The Cell home? That’s Christmas 81 times a season if you’re a right-handed power prospect. Blasting past 20 homers (as James projects) in his first full season seems like a reasonable expectation; don’t be surprised if he blows by that by August.
10. Michael Saunders, Blue Jays: .685 career OPS | 2015 James .726, Steamer .748
Saunders escaped from Seattle this winter after suffering through a 74-point OPS differential in his career home/road split, although he did put up a career-best .791 OPS in 2014. Now that he’s finally out of Seattle, a Canadian headed to Canada’s team, topping that may be tough to reproduce, but he’s brought his strikeout rate down toward 20 percent while keeping his walks around 10 percent. Between the scarcity of offensive help on the market and the fact it only took fifth-starter type J.A. Happ to get him, Saunders could be one of the best pickups of the winter.
Honorable mention: Starling Marte, Pirates. I’ll admit, there’s a bit of fan reach on my part here, simply because Marte is one of my favorite guys to watch play. But only up to a point, because he delivered a huge second half (.975 OPS) when he was healthy. He’s another guy headed into his age-26 season, so take it as just my vibe that he’s got a single-season 30-10-20 line or better for doubles, triples and homers in him sometime in the very near future.
December, 27, 2014
Dec 27
12:53
PM ET
By Christina Kahrl | ESPN.com
With 2015 around the corner, it’s easy to focus on what’s new -- new players on your teams, new rookies, new chances. But how about those guys who might be ready to ratchet up a whole new level of production? It is, as Mike Royko put it describing his joy on seeing Cubs shortstop Shawon Dunston learn to lay off an outside breaking ball, part of what being a fan is all about, because you get to see someone already good enough to be one of the best players on the planet become greater still.
Diving into a list of guys who should break out in 2015, let’s set aside the rookies we know are going to make some noise. Yes, Kris Bryant, Joc Pederson, Byron Buxton, Jorge Soler, Rusney Castillo -- we all expect big things in what ought to be a bumper crop of first-year players, but let’s set them aside for a different conversation. Instead, think of this as yesterday’s top prospects coming into their own now that their new-guy hype has faded, while including ACTA's Bill James projections and what Steamer at FanGraphs suggest they’ll do in the season to come.
1. Manny Machado, Orioles: .747 career OPS | 2015 James .765, Steamer .758
Including Machado might seem like a bit of a gimme, considering he’s now headed into his fourth season in the majors and has only shown incremental progress, picking up a couple of points on OPS each year. But his first spin was an in-season call-up, his second featured a big second-half fade (.807 OPS before the break, .647 after) and a season-ending knee injury, and his third was slowed by his recovery (taking the field in May without spring training), then ended early by reinjuring his right knee. But for all that, the guy only just turned 22 last summer, and despite that stack of setbacks, he’s already been productive. The projections are modest, but overlook the backstory; with health and a clean start, this could be the first year of many when he cranks out 80 extra-base hits.
2. George Springer, Astros: .804 career OPS | 2015 James .854, Steamer .772
He’s sort of like putting one scoop of Bryce Harper or Yasiel Puig and one of teammate Chris Carter in the same sundae, because you get the athleticism and the power to pound a league-leading tally in homers -- and strike out 200 times -- all in one baseball helmet dish. The fulcrum that will propel his career one way or another is his mastery of the strike zone, because after a swinging strike clip that’s almost twice big-league average (31.9 to 16.3 percent) as a rookie, if he sorts out what he needs to lay off of, he could go from impressive to dominant in short order.
3. Eric Hosmer, Royals: .747 career OPS | 2015 James .773, Steamer .779
There’s a decent cadre of semidisappointing first basemen to choose from, guys you might be hoping might take a big, Anthony Rizzo-level step forward, as Rizzo did last year. Yonder Alonso might be too far along and need a change of venue, while Brandon Belt has the bat but may not be durable enough. Hosmer is the guy in this group who’s younger than Rizzo, just heading into his age-25 season and into the beginning of what you’d consider to be a normal peak range for a hitter. If Hosmer’s performance down the stretch and into the postseason (.841 OPS in September, .983 in October) while working with new hitting coach Dale Sveum is any indication, he might finally start delivering in kind on the huge expectations Royals fans have piled on him for the last four years.
4. Yasmani Grandal, Dodgers: .763 career OPS | 2015 James .809, Steamer .735
Between getting dealt by the Reds before reaching the homer haven they call home, missing most of 2013 with a 50-game PED suspension and a knee injury, and the general anonymity that gets slathered onto all Padres, Grandal has yet to live up to the prospect billing that made him a 12th overall pick in the 2010 draft. But he’s only just begun, hitting 15 homers last year, and has already delivered an .802 career OPS on the road. Now that he’s escaped from the bat-sapping effects of Petco Park and is headed to a friendlier power environment in Dodger Stadium and into his prime age-26 season, expect the Dodgers to come off well on their side of the Matt Kemp swap.
5. Oswaldo Arcia, Twins: .743 career OPS | 2015 James .844, Steamer .790
Did you know Arcia hit 20 homers in a partial season last year, as a 23-year-old? Or that Bill James also pegged him for 30 homers this season? Blame the flyover market, blame all the prospect maven attention getting lavished on names like Buxton or Sano (not that there’s anything wrong with that), or blame the Twins’ four-year run of losing seasons, but Arcia is going to be a big part of the reason why the Twins’ brief run of irrelevance ends soon. Add in an AL Central where nobody should be a slam-dunk pick to win 90 games, and Arcia will be the new star slugger on a surprise contender.
6. Travis d’Arnaud, Mets: .683 career OPS | 2015 James .805, Steamer .744
The Mets have been used as a punchline for so long that it’s worth remembering that some of their long-term moves are about to start delivering, starting with d’Arnaud behind the plate. Another example that youth will be served, d’Arnaud is also headed into the heart of a normal peak range with his age-26 season on tap. After settling in last year as the Mets’ regular backstop, he posted a .787 OPS in the second half despite playing with a bum elbow. Lucas Duda was last year’s breakout Met; d’Arnaud will be that guy in 2015.
Which hitter will have the biggest breakout in 2015?
- Manny Machado
- Eric Hosmer
- Xander Bogaerts
- Oswaldo Arcia
- George Springer
No more distractions, he’s a shortstop and gets to settle in. Given that he’s already yesterday’s news while the focus switches to the excitement over adding Pablo Sandoval, Mookie Betts and Castillo to the everyday lineup, it’s going to be fun to watch as Bogaerts quietly clouts 50 extra-base hits and closes the book on last year’s front-office-driven mayhem. Last year, MLB shortstops averaged a .678 OPS, and only five shortstops (including new Sox left fielder Hanley Ramirez) posted a better OPS than Bogaerts’ projection. Skip any disappointment, his stardom begins now.
8. Marcell Ozuna, Marlins: .746 career OPS | 2015 James .804, Steamer .744
When I turned to resident projection expert Dan Szymborski for his thoughts, he tabbed Ozuna, and it’s easy to understand why. Despite essentially skipping past Double-A and Triple-A on his way to the majors in 2013, Ozuna has shown off solid growth in his first two big-league seasons, posting a .772 OPS last year while ripping 23 homers. Headed into his age-24 season, it wouldn’t be shocking to see him take a big step forward.
9. Avisail Garcia, White Sox: .722 career OPS | 2015 James .783, Steamer .743
Remember him, that top Tigers prospect of yesteryear flipped to the South Side before he’d even settled in? Well, after missing most of 2014 with a shoulder injury, he’s back, healthy and still shy of his 24th birthday. And he gets to call The Cell home? That’s Christmas 81 times a season if you’re a right-handed power prospect. Blasting past 20 homers (as James projects) in his first full season seems like a reasonable expectation; don’t be surprised if he blows by that by August.
10. Michael Saunders, Blue Jays: .685 career OPS | 2015 James .726, Steamer .748
Saunders escaped from Seattle this winter after suffering through a 74-point OPS differential in his career home/road split, although he did put up a career-best .791 OPS in 2014. Now that he’s finally out of Seattle, a Canadian headed to Canada’s team, topping that may be tough to reproduce, but he’s brought his strikeout rate down toward 20 percent while keeping his walks around 10 percent. Between the scarcity of offensive help on the market and the fact it only took fifth-starter type J.A. Happ to get him, Saunders could be one of the best pickups of the winter.
Honorable mention: Starling Marte, Pirates. I’ll admit, there’s a bit of fan reach on my part here, simply because Marte is one of my favorite guys to watch play. But only up to a point, because he delivered a huge second half (.975 OPS) when he was healthy. He’s another guy headed into his age-26 season, so take it as just my vibe that he’s got a single-season 30-10-20 line or better for doubles, triples and homers in him sometime in the very near future.
HookersandIceCream
#TeamOrange
Picks to click: 2015 breakout hitters
December, 27, 2014
Dec 27
12:53
PM ET
By Christina Kahrl | ESPN.com
Jonathan Ernst/Getty ImagesAfter two injury-abbreviated seasons, will Manny Machado break out big in 2015?
With 2015 around the corner, it’s easy to focus on what’s new -- new players on your teams, new rookies, new chances. But how about those guys who might be ready to ratchet up a whole new level of production? It is, as Mike Royko put it describing his joy on seeing Cubs shortstop Shawon Dunston learn to lay off an outside breaking ball, part of what being a fan is all about, because you get to see someone already good enough to be one of the best players on the planet become greater still.
Diving into a list of guys who should break out in 2015, let’s set aside the rookies we know are going to make some noise. Yes, Kris Bryant, Joc Pederson, Byron Buxton, Jorge Soler, Rusney Castillo -- we all expect big things in what ought to be a bumper crop of first-year players, but let’s set them aside for a different conversation. Instead, think of this as yesterday’s top prospects coming into their own now that their new-guy hype has faded, while including ACTA's Bill James projections and what Steamer at FanGraphs suggest they’ll do in the season to come.
1. Manny Machado, Orioles: .747 career OPS | 2015 James .765, Steamer .758
Including Machado might seem like a bit of a gimme, considering he’s now headed into his fourth season in the majors and has only shown incremental progress, picking up a couple of points on OPS each year. But his first spin was an in-season call-up, his second featured a big second-half fade (.807 OPS before the break, .647 after) and a season-ending knee injury, and his third was slowed by his recovery (taking the field in May without spring training), then ended early by reinjuring his right knee. But for all that, the guy only just turned 22 last summer, and despite that stack of setbacks, he’s already been productive. The projections are modest, but overlook the backstory; with health and a clean start, this could be the first year of many when he cranks out 80 extra-base hits.
2. George Springer, Astros: .804 career OPS | 2015 James .854, Steamer .772
He’s sort of like putting one scoop of Bryce Harper or Yasiel Puig and one of teammate Chris Carter in the same sundae, because you get the athleticism and the power to pound a league-leading tally in homers -- and strike out 200 times -- all in one baseball helmet dish. The fulcrum that will propel his career one way or another is his mastery of the strike zone, because after a swinging strike clip that’s almost twice big-league average (31.9 to 16.3 percent) as a rookie, if he sorts out what he needs to lay off of, he could go from impressive to dominant in short order.
3. Eric Hosmer, Royals: .747 career OPS | 2015 James .773, Steamer .779
There’s a decent cadre of semidisappointing first basemen to choose from, guys you might be hoping might take a big, Anthony Rizzo-level step forward, as Rizzo did last year. Yonder Alonso might be too far along and need a change of venue, while Brandon Belt has the bat but may not be durable enough. Hosmer is the guy in this group who’s younger than Rizzo, just heading into his age-25 season and into the beginning of what you’d consider to be a normal peak range for a hitter. If Hosmer’s performance down the stretch and into the postseason (.841 OPS in September, .983 in October) while working with new hitting coach Dale Sveum is any indication, he might finally start delivering in kind on the huge expectations Royals fans have piled on him for the last four years.
4. Yasmani Grandal, Dodgers: .763 career OPS | 2015 James .809, Steamer .735
Between getting dealt by the Reds before reaching the homer haven they call home, missing most of 2013 with a 50-game PED suspension and a knee injury, and the general anonymity that gets slathered onto all Padres, Grandal has yet to live up to the prospect billing that made him a 12th overall pick in the 2010 draft. But he’s only just begun, hitting 15 homers last year, and has already delivered an .802 career OPS on the road. Now that he’s escaped from the bat-sapping effects of Petco Park and is headed to a friendlier power environment in Dodger Stadium and into his prime age-26 season, expect the Dodgers to come off well on their side of the Matt Kemp swap.
5. Oswaldo Arcia, Twins: .743 career OPS | 2015 James .844, Steamer .790
Did you know Arcia hit 20 homers in a partial season last year, as a 23-year-old? Or that Bill James also pegged him for 30 homers this season? Blame the flyover market, blame all the prospect maven attention getting lavished on names like Buxton or Sano (not that there’s anything wrong with that), or blame the Twins’ four-year run of losing seasons, but Arcia is going to be a big part of the reason why the Twins’ brief run of irrelevance ends soon. Add in an AL Central where nobody should be a slam-dunk pick to win 90 games, and Arcia will be the new star slugger on a surprise contender.
6. Travis d’Arnaud, Mets: .683 career OPS | 2015 James .805, Steamer .744
The Mets have been used as a punchline for so long that it’s worth remembering that some of their long-term moves are about to start delivering, starting with d’Arnaud behind the plate. Another example that youth will be served, d’Arnaud is also headed into the heart of a normal peak range with his age-26 season on tap. After settling in last year as the Mets’ regular backstop, he posted a .787 OPS in the second half despite playing with a bum elbow. Lucas Duda was last year’s breakout Met; d’Arnaud will be that guy in 2015.
Which hitter will have the biggest breakout in 2015?
7. Xander Bogaerts, Red Sox: .662 career OPS | 2015 James .735, Steamer .732
- Manny Machado
- Eric Hosmer
- Xander Bogaerts
- Oswaldo Arcia
- George Springer
No more distractions, he’s a shortstop and gets to settle in. Given that he’s already yesterday’s news while the focus switches to the excitement over adding Pablo Sandoval, Mookie Betts and Castillo to the everyday lineup, it’s going to be fun to watch as Bogaerts quietly clouts 50 extra-base hits and closes the book on last year’s front-office-driven mayhem. Last year, MLB shortstops averaged a .678 OPS, and only five shortstops (including new Sox left fielder Hanley Ramirez) posted a better OPS than Bogaerts’ projection. Skip any disappointment, his stardom begins now.
8. Marcell Ozuna, Marlins: .746 career OPS | 2015 James .804, Steamer .744
When I turned to resident projection expert Dan Szymborski for his thoughts, he tabbed Ozuna, and it’s easy to understand why. Despite essentially skipping past Double-A and Triple-A on his way to the majors in 2013, Ozuna has shown off solid growth in his first two big-league seasons, posting a .772 OPS last year while ripping 23 homers. Headed into his age-24 season, it wouldn’t be shocking to see him take a big step forward.
9. Avisail Garcia, White Sox: .722 career OPS | 2015 James .783, Steamer .743
Remember him, that top Tigers prospect of yesteryear flipped to the South Side before he’d even settled in? Well, after missing most of 2014 with a shoulder injury, he’s back, healthy and still shy of his 24th birthday. And he gets to call The Cell home? That’s Christmas 81 times a season if you’re a right-handed power prospect. Blasting past 20 homers (as James projects) in his first full season seems like a reasonable expectation; don’t be surprised if he blows by that by August.
10. Michael Saunders, Blue Jays: .685 career OPS | 2015 James .726, Steamer .748
Saunders escaped from Seattle this winter after suffering through a 74-point OPS differential in his career home/road split, although he did put up a career-best .791 OPS in 2014. Now that he’s finally out of Seattle, a Canadian headed to Canada’s team, topping that may be tough to reproduce, but he’s brought his strikeout rate down toward 20 percent while keeping his walks around 10 percent. Between the scarcity of offensive help on the market and the fact it only took fifth-starter type J.A. Happ to get him, Saunders could be one of the best pickups of the winter.
Honorable mention: Starling Marte, Pirates. I’ll admit, there’s a bit of fan reach on my part here, simply because Marte is one of my favorite guys to watch play. But only up to a point, because he delivered a huge second half (.975 OPS) when he was healthy. He’s another guy headed into his age-26 season, so take it as just my vibe that he’s got a single-season 30-10-20 line or better for doubles, triples and homers in him sometime in the very near future.
At these OPS
Baseball needs steroids again
tremonthustler1
aka bx_representer
Steroids won't help you make contact.
At these OPS
Baseball needs steroids again
Less plate discipline than ever before.
holidayinn21
:SmugMoneyMike:
fukk the baseball hall of fame.
It's a fukking joke.
@Knights89 @wire28 @SwiggyCabrera24 @MercuryHayes @Detroit Wave @eastside313 How is this team so delusional when it comes to the pen? 
i dont even know what to expect this season breh@Knights89 @wire28 @SwiggyCabrera24 @MercuryHayes @Detroit Wave @eastside313 How is this team so delusional when it comes to the pen?
last season i thought was our last shot before the window closed, so if we do anything from here on out imma just enjoy it
@Regular_P
that Ausmus qoute you highlighted about corrections is the dumbest shyt I ever read. Especially after his failure to lean on Anibal Sanchez, and not give a guy like Alberquerque a shot at closing. he failed to use his best options. Same shyt for 2015, with the other teams in the division making moves to get better.....
that Ausmus qoute you highlighted about corrections is the dumbest shyt I ever read. Especially after his failure to lean on Anibal Sanchez, and not give a guy like Alberquerque a shot at closing. he failed to use his best options. Same shyt for 2015, with the other teams in the division making moves to get better.....
First year in a while where I don't think they can win it all going into the season.
It's one thing if the guy is 27 and had a down year. Not a 40 year old. They should have fired this idiot as soon as Maddon became available.
tremonthustler1
aka bx_representer
Cano playin in Winter League on Tuesday
