MLB: Nick Castellanos exposes flaws of analytics in Cubs' deadline coup
Nick Castellanos gets last laugh as he exposes the flaws of analytics in Cubs' deadline coup
Bob Nightengale, USA TODAY Published 8:25 a.m. ET Aug. 29, 2019 | Updated 12:41 p.m. ET Aug. 29, 2019
NEW YORK – Chicago Cubs outfielder Nick Castellanos sits in front of his locker, slowly wrapping tape around his bats, while his mind is rapidly spinning.
He still can’t get over those horrendous uniforms during Players Weekend.
He hates the new wave of analytics, as if it were designed to keep salaries down, suppress the free agent market, which could lead to a potential strike during the 2021 season.
He insists Major League Baseball would be in a better place if every team actually wanted to win, instead of teams believing that tanking is the best formula for future success.
Castellanos can’t singlehandedly change the economic system of baseball, lead a work stoppage, or force owners to pay him what he’s worth as a 27-year-old free agent slugger this winter, but he’s a renaissance man who wants to make a difference in today’s game.
“I have a lot of opinions, I’m not saying I’m right or wrong,’’ says Castellanos, “but that’s how I feel.’’
Castellanos has been around for just 25 games but already has nine homers, 16 RBI, 22 runs scored and 74 total bases. He’s hitting .365 this month with a staggering 1.112 OPS as the Cubs are just two games behind the St. Louis Cardinals for the NL Central title.
“He’s the hottest guy in baseball, of course he has exceeded our expectations,’’ Cubs president Theo Epstein said. “He’s been a breath of fresh air in our clubhouse.’’
Now, he’s getting the last laugh, proving that despite the benefits clubs may derive from analytics, there are no algorithms to measure a player’s heart, fortitude and competitiveness.
Besides, if analytics were the end-all, be-all, then how come every contender blew the chance to grab him.
Castellanos has his own spray charts showing those balls he was hitting into right-center-field would have been homers if his home games weren’t played at Comerica Park with the center-field 420 feet away.
And where are the analytics that show how being thrust into a playoff race -- instead of being stuck on a team that has been outscored by 257 runs -- can dramatically change your performance?
“They have these analytics that come out of nowhere that are supposed to predict how players are going to do and what they are going to do before they do it,’’ Castellanos said. “They have WAR, but when I talk to people on the MLB Network and other places, and ask how they come up with it, they have no idea.’’
Whatever the formula, Castellanos says, he knows it can’t possibly factor in clubhouse leadership.
“The biggest mistake the Tigers made was not signing Torii Hunter back,’’ said Castellanos, whose former teammate left for the Minnesota Twins after the 2014 season. The Tigers, after four consecutive division titles, have never reached the playoffs again.
“Regardless what his analytical performance said,’’ Castellanos said, “you can’t value the centerpiece in the clubhouse. Someone with the same WAR is not going to provide the same thing.
“And whoever says it is the same has not played, endured, been in a clubhouse, or ridden the ebbs and flows of the game.’’
You want to know what Castellanos means to the Cubs, just ask manager Joe Maddon and his teammates, who have watched him provide a burst of vitality their team was missing.
“He provides a lot of energy at the top,’’ Maddon says, “he plays with a brashness about him that I think everyone else can feel. He’s one of those guys that doesn’t believe anybody can get him out."
And to think the acquisition cost of Castellanos was merely mid-tiered pitching prospects Paul Richan and Alex Lange, with the Tigers even paying a portion of the $3 million remaining in Castellanos’ $9.95 million salary.
This winter, everyone will have a chance to hit control-alt-delete and reset their analysis, perhaps looking at Castellanos in a different prism. He’s hitting over .290 for the second consecutive season, already equaled his career-high with 46 doubles, and is on pace to play at least 148 games for the fifth time in his six seasons.
He should be rewarded handsomely, but considering last year’s winter freeze, and the forecast for another, Castellanos has no idea what’s in store.
“There’s a lot of uncertainty right now with the relationship between ownership and players,’’ he said, “just the way that we’re being evaluated. It’s something I can’t control. But being in a position where I’m wanted, all I have to worry about is winning and trying to help influence the guys around me.
“The rest of it is business, man. And business is an adult’s game. And usually if you’re playing an adult’s game long enough, you get lawyers involved and people get pissed off.
“But I’m not an owner. I’m not a GM. I’m just a ballplayer.’’
Follow Nightengale at Twitter @Bnightengale
Stupid comment, you think Mike Trout would have better numbers if no brothers were playing today. You think the negro league was full of Ken Griffey’s and Dwight Goodens, that league had a bunch of bums too and a couple superstars, the divide ain’t as large as you think
, beat stroman,syndergaard and degrom 
and gained 1.5 on the cards 
