10 biggest draft questions for 2012
With the NBA draft just two days away, here are 10 pressing questions heading into the draft.
1. Is Anthony Davis really all that?
Yes. He's all that.
It is rare when a prospect lives up to the hype. Davis has done that and more. Not only does he pass the smell test physically (ideal height, great athlete, huge wingspan), he also was superproductive as a freshman (highest player efficiency rating of any player in college basketball, highest score ever in John Hollinger's Draft Rater, elite rebounder and shot-blocker on the defensive end). Plus, he has all the right intangibles (super motor, tough, humble, hardworking, great attitude).
Physical tools? Check. Production? Check. Intangibles? Check.
Oh, and Davis led his NCAA team to a national title in his freshman year.
Winner? Check.
It is very rare when all four of these items align in a meaningful way.
Davis passes the NBA scout test, too. There isn't an NBA scout or NBA GM in the league who doesn't have him No. 1 on his board. I'll take it a step further. Every GM and scout I spoke with told me he'd take Davis No. 1 in the 2011, 2010, 2009 and 2008 drafts. Yes, ahead of Derrick Rose, Blake Griffin, John Wall and Kyrie Irving.
So what are you worried about?
He needs to add weight. Fair enough. He does need to get stronger. So have other top prospects before him.
He reminds me of Marcus Camby. I've heard that one. Camby is probably his floor. Many GMs and scouts believe that players like Tim Duncan and Kevin Garnett are his ceiling.
He might not make a major impact in Year 1. Maybe. But many said that about him coming into Kentucky, and he put that to rest by midseason.
In short, Davis is one of the best No. 1 picks to come along in a decade. Barring a Greg Oden-like rash of injuries, he's expected to be a multiyear All-Star.
2. Besides Davis, who will have the biggest impact as a rookie?
Who is the most NBA-ready player for the 2012-13 season? It usually depends more on the team a player lands on than the player himself.
I think it could be the Toronto Raptors' Jonas Valanciunas. Many NBA scouts believe he would have been the No. 2 pick in this year's draft had he not entered the 2011 draft. Valanciunas spent this past year in Lithuania and will be a rookie this season. The Raptors likely will give him lots of playing time early, as they think he has the makings of a star.
If you're asking about players from this draft, three players come to mind.
Kansas Jayhawks forward Thomas Robinson has an NBA body and NBA skills. If he lands on a bad Charlotte team, he should come in and put up big numbers right away.
I also could see Harrison Barnes putting up big numbers if he lands in Cleveland. He has a pretty big chip on his shoulder, and playing with an elite point guard like Kyrie Irving could really elevate his game.
Syracuse guard Dion Waiters is another possibility if he lands on the right team. He has an NBA player's body and can get to the basket at will. He could put up big, Tyreke Evans-esque numbers as a rookie on a bad team.
3. In five years, who will be the second-best player from the 2012 draft?
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Beal has emerged as the consensus No. 2 pick in the draft.
Florida Gators wing Bradley Beal has moved into the position of the consensus No. 2 player in the draft. About 70 percent of the GMs and scouts I surveyed now have Beal at No. 2 on their big boards. Beal's NBA body, excellent athletic ability, sweet shooting stroke and winning attitude have scouts convinced that his floor is Eric Gordon and his ceiling may be Ray Allen.
I'm a big Beal fan, but I think that Michael Kidd-Gilchrist could be the second-best player in the draft. He has more holes in his game than several of the top picks in the draft. But he's also the youngest player and hardest worker, and his flaws (shooting and ball-handling) are correctable.
The things Kidd-Gilchrist has now (ultimate motor, toughness, the ability to defend multiple positions, leadership) are harder to duplicate. He just might be a Gerald Wallace clone, or he might be a saner version of Ron Artest. But if we are talking ceilings, I think his is Scottie Pippen. Pair him with an elite scorer, and I think he'll have a few rings by the time he retires.
4. Andre Drummond: The next Dwight Howard or the next Kwame Brown?
Who knows? Really.
Drummond has all the tools to be the next Howard. At 18, he's already 7 feet tall, 280 pounds. He has a 7-foot-6 wingspan and has elite athletic abilities. That's not a basketball player; that's a basketball god.
But he's also the second-youngest player in the draft, and at times it shows. He doesn't always play hard. He takes plays and sometimes entire games off. His skill level (highlighted by his awful 29.5 percent free throw shooting) is a major work in progress. He doesn't always work hard off the court to improve his game. And when you talk to him, he sounds more like a 16-year-old trapped in the body of a 28-year-old giant.
Anyone who says he knows what Drummond will be is a psychic or a fraud. If he lands on the right team, gets the right coaching and is open to dedicating himself completely to the game, he could be the next Howard.
If Drummond is left on his own, isn't forced to develop or just decides that he doesn't really like basketball, Brown isn't out of the question.
More likely, he's somewhere in between those guys. DeAndre Jordan, anyone?
5. Austin Rivers: The next Kobe Bryant or the next Jerryd Bayless?
I don't think there's a more polarizing player in the draft than Rivers. Fans and scouts tend to love him or hate him. I know that several teams have him ranked in the top 10 on their big boards. I know several others that have him in the second round. How's that for a draft range?
Rivers does model his offensive game after Bryant's -- for better and for worse. He's a superaggressive scorer. He has a killer crossover, has mastered the fadeaway J and wants the ball in his hands at the end of close games. He loves himself some hero ball.
Again, for good and for bad, Rivers also has modeled his off-the-court behaviors to emulate Bryant's. He works hard. He's tough. He's superconfident. However, he also has a rap as a selfish player who bristles at teammates and doesn't know how to share.
Factor in Rivers' pedestrian shooting numbers, poor free throw shooting and poor assist-to-turnover ratio, and suddenly he looks very un-Kobe-like.
But the real concern for Rivers is that he physically doesn't hold a candle to Bryant. He's not as big, not as long and not as explosive as Bryant was when he entered the league. Take away Bryant's size, length and explosiveness, and Kobe isn't Kobe. That's why, in some respects, Rivers looks a lot like Raptors combo guard Bayless.
Whichever team takes Rivers will take a risk. It could pay off big time or blow up in a team's face.
6. Who is the most underrated player outside the lottery?
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Quincy Miller could be a steal in the late first round.
Three players stand out to me -- Baylor's Quincy Miller, Washington's Tony Wroten and Michigan State's Draymond Green.
There couldn't be three more different players than Miller, Wroten and Green. And I think NBA GMs may regret letting all three guys slide into the late first round.
Miller was widely regarded as a top-10 pick coming into Baylor last season as a freshman. However, the effects of an ACL injury suffered the previous spring, combined with a shifting role at Baylor once Perry Jones returned to the lineup, led to a fairly mediocre freshman campaign.
However, a number of things suggest Miller could be much better as he matures. He has great size for his position and can really score the basketball from anywhere on the floor. Once his ACL injury is healed (remember, it can take up to two years to fully recover), I think he'll look more athletic than he showed as a freshman. In addition, John Hollinger's Draft Rater (which every year outperforms what actual GMs are doing in the draft) had Miller ranked as a top-10 pick.
To top it off, most NBA scouts and GMs I spoke with felt Miller would have been a top-10 pick in 2013 had he remained in school. The talent is there for a team that uses it the right way.
Wroten, on physical tools and skills, is one of the four or five most talented players in the draft. He has elite size for his position and is a terrific athlete. He also is a special passer and can really get to the basket, and he can be a lockdown defender. However, Wroten's broken jump shot, tendency to play out of control and reputation as a team chemistry killer have damaged his stock.
Wroten has very real obstacles to overcome and could be Lance Stephenson 2.0, but with so much raw talent there, he also has the potential to be a Gary Payton-esque player in the NBA someday. If he matures and fixes that jumper ... wow.
Green isn't anything like Wroten. He is not a great athlete, plays questionable defense and doesn't really have a position in the NBA. However, he's an excellent scorer both inside and outside, rebounds the basketball, has a super high basketball IQ and is a winner.
On top of that, every advanced statistic I've seen suggests Green one of the top players in the draft. Although it's clear that he has limitations, he's just a basketball player -- the type of glue guy who helps good teams win and stays in the league far longer than anyone expects. I get why teams wouldn't take him in the top 10. But after that, if I were a GM, he'd be fair game.
