According to Chad Ford’s most recent mock draft, nine one-and-done players are projected to go in the first round of Thursday's NBA draft.
NBA executives have the challenge of evaluating one-and-done players based only on one year of college, since the collective bargaining agreement prohibits them from doing so during the high school season, but we have been watching these guys since they first appeared on the high school and grassroots circuits.
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Andre Drummond was the No. 1 player in the 2012 class and then reclassified into the 2011 class. He became No. 2 behind Anthony Davis.
And in some cases since they were in middle school, which is the case for me with Andre Drummond. Long before I ever evaluated Drummond for ESPN, I worked with him on an almost weekly basis when he was in the seventh and eighth grades. That experience has given me unique perspective over the years in watching him develop and evolve as a person and basketball prospect.
At a young age, he was growing so much that developing the muscle memory necessary for skill development was especially difficult. As Drummond got older, it was the dominance of his physical profile, not of his overall production, which pushed him to the top of the national rankings. Unfortunately, people saw those rankings as grounds to expect an immediately dominant college player, which was unrealistic given his natural physical and basketball evolution.
Most have labeled his freshman season a disappointment, but Drummond actually made noticeable progress in two significant areas -- shot blocking and offensive role recognition.
While he was always good for swatting a shot or two into the stands during high school, his shot-blocking technique was never great. He became much better during his one season at UConn keeping his hands high and ready, not leaving his feet on shot fakes or picking up goaltending violations. As a result, he averaged 2.7 blocks per game (3.8 blocks per 40 minutes). His physical tools also enabled him to be a highly effective defender against post-ups (96 percent efficiency according to Synergy Sports Technology) and isolations (92 percent).
Offensively, he finally learned to play the game from the inside out, anchoring his game to the paint instead of constantly floating to the perimeter as he did during his high school and AAU days.
As he enters the NBA, his next improvements should be aligned with what is likely to be his immediate role -- defending, rebounding and finishing plays around the rim. Defensively, he has to become a better ball-screen defender, after giving up 1.125 points per possession defending pick-and-rolls and 1.2 points per possession against pick-and-pops according to Synergy Sports Technology. His size, length and mobility give him the physical potential to hedge and recover, but he was often late reacting to the ball screen because he was caught watching the ball. He’s also going to have to adjust to increased coverage schemes at the NBA level, which is different from the hard hedge approach consistently utilized by Connecticut.
His rebounding numbers were solid, but unspectacular, at UConn as well. Of the four centers currently projected to go in the first round (Drummond, Myers Leonard, Tyler Zeller, Fab Melo), he ranks second in rebounds per 40 minutes but noticeably behind a less-athletic Zeller (13.6 vs. 10.6). Drummond tends to be more effective on the offensive end and needs to be more consistent both dominating his area on the defensive glass as well as tracking balls off the rim and rebounding outside his area.
Offensively, he doesn’t have a go-to move with his back to the basket, but there are two far more pressing areas. First and foremost, he needs to improve his .295 free throw percentage. He doesn’t have bad touch for a guy his size, but has always had far too much excess body movement in his shot. I’m not sure he’ll ever be a great free throw shooter, but his mechanical problems aren’t necessarily as dramatic as his percentage would indicate.
Secondly, he needs to shoot a higher percentage around the rim, when he’s unable to dunk the ball. While he is one of the most explosive leapers and finishers in the draft class, he has a tendency to avoid contact when he’s not able to dunk, either by releasing the ball too quickly or fading away, which leads to low shooting percentages and infrequent trips to the free throw line.
There is also a well-documented concern about his motor and love for the game at this point, but I think that’s overstated. He’s always been receptive to coaching and willing to get into the gym. While he can undoubtedly disappear for stretches at a time, I think that has more to do with understanding the game and how to best utilize his physical tools.
Keeping all that in mind, it’s important to remember he’s just 18 years old, only in his first real year of playing against similar-sized athletes and in the very early stages of putting all the pieces together.