Trump will most likely win because.
1) Whenever the stock market is doing well the president usually gets reelected (it's a fact that's been proven).
2) Black lives matter has only emboldened his racist followers and a lot of the riots have actually recruited middle aged to older white people to Trump's camp. Especially after people started taking down statues.
3) I know this because my boss went from not wanting to vote for Trump 4weeks ago to all of a sudden wanting to

. I walked in on him talking to another Cac about "our country is falling apart because of all these people taking down our statues etc.". Keep in mind that this dude is one of the most liberal old Cacs I know. Dude dates black women too

.
4) A lot of middle aged to older white people see the new race relations as a challenge to their livelyhood and will vote for Trump.
5) Trump fired any opposition that he had in the Judicial branch and he has Mnuchin and Jerome Powell on a leash. He can make it look like the economy is improving by propping up the stock market. I remember that one week when the stock market dipped 5 percent and Trump immediatly got Kudlow to bully Jerome Powell

. Literally thee next week the market ends up jumping 3 percent

.
White House: Stocks Are Plunging Because Jerome Powell Doesn’t Smile
and they have threatened to fire the guy for a while
Fed Chair Powell's job is safe 'at the present time,' Larry Kudlow says
Larry Kudlow, Steve Mnuchin, and Bill Barr are some of the most corrupt public officials. If people in BLM actually cared about bringing down Trump they would have went after thhe people that protect him (Kudlow,Barr, and Mnuchin). Instead BLM decided to attack racism directly even though that will not work given how racist most white people are

. BLM movement mobilized very well but it's execution was terrible

. If anything it has given Trump fuel and hasn't weakened him

.
Also a lot of Cacs rely on Trump winning the election to retain their wealth. People that lost money during the crash need to break even and the only way to do that is if Trump is relected (Biden winning the election will cause a stock market crash, wallstreet Cacs will liquidate their assets or switch to long term Treasury notes). Think about how many Cacs might not be able to retired because their 401(k) got wiped out in March.