Georgiamuscle
Superstar
Terrain will play a factor. I agree. However if you can’t deploy your asset without it being found and destroyed (US establishes air superiority by defeating Iran’s “Air Force” and destroying their AA, anti ship missiles, etc), you might as well not have it. They haven’t found all of their ballistic sites, YET but there will be constant surveillance from multiple sources until they do. Once something is launched, it’s coordinates are going to be found almost instantaneously, and there’s going to be a fire mission coming for it shortly after, and bunkers can be buried.They've found some of them.
But they don't know where ALL of them are. Iran is a huge country and mountains and underground bases are all over the place.
Seymour Hersh:
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu visited Washington last Wednesday, February 11, unaccompanied by his wife Sara—a sign, I have been told, of urgency—for a hurried meeting at the White House with Donald Trump.
Netanyahu, who has led Israel’s war on Gaza, arrived with a citation from Genesis 18-19 in hand: the meaning was that he, like God, would hold people accountable for sin—primarily the Ayatollah Ali Khameini of Iran—but would also show grace and mercy.
One of the messages that emerged in my subsequent reporting on the meeting is that the Israelis believe that the Iranians, whose three main nuclear facilities were bombed by US B-2 bombers last June, smuggled before the attack as much as 440 kilograms of partially enriched uranium—to 60 percent—into one of the myriad of tunnels known to exist under the Isfahan nuclear research center.
The tunnels are said by the Israelis to be like the tentacles of an octopus in their twists and turns. If the tunnels were able to shield the uranium, it would take just a few days with the right centrifuges to cycle up to 90-plus enrichment, enough to power an atomic bomb. I was not told the source of the Israelis’ information, but I was told that, if deemed necessary, there are plans afoot for the Sayerat Matkal, Israel’s version of America’s Seal Team 6, to penetrate the tunnel system to verify the information that Netanyahu and others in the increasingly religious Israeli military leadership desperately want to verify.
Trump responded to the Israelis’ information by sending the US fleet to the Persian Gulf, the eastern Mediterranean and the Red and Arabian seas, and he declared that regime change in Iran is “the best thing that could happen.” The New York Times has reported that “Trump has the option to take military action against Iran as soon as this weekend,” according to administration officials. The United States and Israel are or soon will be attempting to make contacts among the leadership of the Iranian Army. Its forces will be needed to overthrow the religious regime, with its loyal Revolutionary Guards. The country is still reeling from the Ayatollah’s murderous response to recent protests. It’s still not known just how many thousands of dissenters, many of them young, were killed by police and the military.
What Trump will do next in the Middle East is hard to predict. I have been told that Netanyahu wants the US to join him in “a massive crippling attack across a broad front” in Iran. His hope is to play “a major role in shaping US planning and execution of any US next step in Iran” and “to eliminate Iran as a potential threat forever.”
The Israeli prime minister also believes that Trump can be persuaded to give Israel what it wants because all he seems to focus on is Iran’s nuclear capability. The folly is that belief, one American official explained, because the US intelligence community has concluded that Iran “does not retain any viable nuclear attack capability.”
Another threat not mentioned between Trump and Netanyahu is Iran’s ballistic missile arsenal. It was one of the major targets of the US-Israeli bombing attack last June. It was wiped out last year but is currently being rebuilt at a rapid rate.
During the war last summer Iran’s missiles had less than a ten percent chance of getting through Israel’s Iron Dome and other air defenses. Iran was able to fire off about 550 missiles at Israeli targets during the war, but the forty-five that got through, even with minimal payloads, caused enormous damage in Tel Aviv and terrified the population. Israel has watched since then as Iran concentrated on manufacturing more and larger missiles
I was told that the upgraded missiles now being manufactured at plants throughout Iran will have enough range to hit targets in Southeastern Europe, where there are little or no air defenses.
The Israeli veteran said that if Netanyahu carries out his current plan to stage an attack in late spring on Iran, with Trump’s support, Israel will also have to initiate yet another preemptive attack on Hezbollah in Lebanon.
What is coming next, if the president and Netanyahu get their way, as they have had since Trump began his second term, will be more hell on earth.
The problem is whether he’s going to try to occupy the country with US forces. A pure air campaign will only give them limited, early success. Eventually they’ll adapt and go underground, get more mobile, hide out like the Taliban and Iraqis had to do. That ain’t going to be easy and probably won’t be successful bc occupying forces eventually leave like what happened in Afghanistan. The Afghan Army was never going to be ready to take over. Most of the locals trusted the Taliban more, so they waited us out and overran the AA.