godkiller
"We are the Fury"
A poster named "Brown Leader" on a draft prospect forum did a comparative write-up on how draft prospect QBs coped with pressure:
@Trip @#1 pick @NYC Rebel
Sooooo......I've been sacrificing way too much time lately to look at this but I was compelled. (obsessed?) As you know, handling pass pressure is one of the things that separates the elite from the short term. Standing in and delivering a strike while getting hit is a necessary trait for a QB. But being able to complete a pass when pressure forces you to move off the spot is more useful and the more important trait to have.
I charted 7 games of each of the top QB prospects this year to see how they fared as passers when pressure forced them to move. I disregarded designed roll outs and screens, which require movement. And disregarded run gains from pressure or losses. I considered "forced off the spot" to be as basic as stepping up or to the side of actual pressure or as complete as running out of the pocket from actual pressure.
Results:
Blake Bortles
13 - 29 44.8% 317yds 4TDs 0int
Teddy Bridgewater
21 - 31 67.7% 261yds 1TD 0int
Derek Carr
8 - 32 25.0% 110yds 0TDs 0int
Jimmy Garoppolo (6gms)
10 - 26 38.4% 107yds 2TDs 0int
Johnny Manziel
28 - 49 57.1% 407yds 5TDs 1int
A.J. McCarron (6gms)
5 - 23 21.7% 80yds 0TD 0int
Zach Mettenberger
7 - 20 35.0% 99yds 0TD 0int
Tom Savage (5gms)
7 - 16 43.7% 50yds 0TD 0int
Nothing complex here but I found it interesting. This confirmed something I suspected and basically why I started this in the first place; that Derek Carr has real issues when he's forced to move from pressure. Standing in and throwing strikes with approaching defenders, he's really better than I thought. But when the pressure makes him actually have to move, the play's generally just about over. Considering his above average athleticism that's not good.
While on the flip side, Manziel is an expert at making something good out of something potentially bad-even if he's created it to some degree. Turning pass pressure into 5 TD passes. Bortles is just behind with 4 but didn't connect near as often. Manziel's high number of attempts and completions reinforces how adept he is at buying or creating time and throwing on the move. Bortles is perhaps the best at standing and taking the punishment when throwing while also being a strong playmaker on the move.
Bortles and Manziel are generally burning teams deep after eluding pass pressure. Manziel had 12 pass plays of 20+yds after forced off the spot. Bortles had 7 20+ plays. By comparison Bridgewater had 3. Carr 3. McCarron 2. Mettenberger 2. Garoppolo 1. Savage 0.
Conversely here's a list of 5yds or less completions after forced off the spot. Savage had 4. Bridgewater 4. Garoppolo 2. Bortles 1. Mettenberger 1. Carr 1. Manziel 1. McCarron 0.
Bridgewater's completion rate emphasizes his great pocket presence. By far the best at maneuvering away from the rush while still locking in....even if it's generally throwing short. What does stand out about him is his toughness.
Garoppolo was better than I thought he'd be. He does his best to impersonate Romo. But it seems like once he has to move his eyes come off anything downfield. Mettenberger was respectable for being the least mobile. The low amount of attempts reveals he's either getting protected or eating a sack. McCarron's numbers aren't entirely surprising considering he manages a Saban run first offense with a talented line, but still, with his decent mobility I expected him to be better. Savage was as I expected. He definitely had plenty opportunities.
For comparison I also charted 7 NFL gms of some of the best QBs to test my contention that throwing on the move from pass pressure is imperative for being a great pro QB.
Results:
Drew Brees
26 - 51 50.9% 3TD 1int
Tom Brady
13 - 25 52.0% 1TD 1int
Andrew Luck
19 - 37 51.3% 2TD 0int
Aaron Rodgers
22 - 48 45.8% 3TD 0int
Russell Wilson
26 - 56 46.4% 3TD 0int
The high number of attempts reveals it's a more necessary trait for a pro QB. Also, anyone saying Manziel's style is unique and can't work in the pros hasn't been paying attention to Russell Wilson. Wilson may have been a pocket guy at N.C. State and Wisconsin, but as a Seahawk, he's playing nearly identically to Manziel at A&M. He's not a pocket QB as a Seahawk.
Even though I've watched him for years I was surprised at how often Brees moves to avoid pressure. Luck was the most deadly of this group at burning you for a long pass play after eluding pressure. And Rodgers tended to move around most in the red zone.
@Trip @#1 pick @NYC Rebel
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