Which NFL prospect QBs are best under pressure? (article inside)

godkiller

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A poster named "Brown Leader" on a draft prospect forum did a comparative write-up on how draft prospect QBs coped with pressure:

Sooooo......I've been sacrificing way too much time lately to look at this but I was compelled. (obsessed?) As you know, handling pass pressure is one of the things that separates the elite from the short term. Standing in and delivering a strike while getting hit is a necessary trait for a QB. But being able to complete a pass when pressure forces you to move off the spot is more useful and the more important trait to have.

I charted 7 games of each of the top QB prospects this year to see how they fared as passers when pressure forced them to move. I disregarded designed roll outs and screens, which require movement. And disregarded run gains from pressure or losses. I considered "forced off the spot" to be as basic as stepping up or to the side of actual pressure or as complete as running out of the pocket from actual pressure.

Results:

Blake Bortles
13 - 29 44.8% 317yds 4TDs 0int

Teddy Bridgewater
21 - 31 67.7% 261yds 1TD 0int

Derek Carr
8 - 32 25.0% 110yds 0TDs 0int

Jimmy Garoppolo (6gms)
10 - 26 38.4% 107yds 2TDs 0int

Johnny Manziel
28 - 49 57.1% 407yds 5TDs 1int

A.J. McCarron (6gms)
5 - 23 21.7% 80yds 0TD 0int

Zach Mettenberger
7 - 20 35.0% 99yds 0TD 0int

Tom Savage (5gms)
7 - 16 43.7% 50yds 0TD 0int

Nothing complex here but I found it interesting. This confirmed something I suspected and basically why I started this in the first place; that Derek Carr has real issues when he's forced to move from pressure. Standing in and throwing strikes with approaching defenders, he's really better than I thought. But when the pressure makes him actually have to move, the play's generally just about over. Considering his above average athleticism that's not good.

While on the flip side, Manziel is an expert at making something good out of something potentially bad-even if he's created it to some degree. Turning pass pressure into 5 TD passes. Bortles is just behind with 4 but didn't connect near as often. Manziel's high number of attempts and completions reinforces how adept he is at buying or creating time and throwing on the move. Bortles is perhaps the best at standing and taking the punishment when throwing while also being a strong playmaker on the move.

Bortles and Manziel are generally burning teams deep after eluding pass pressure. Manziel had 12 pass plays of 20+yds after forced off the spot. Bortles had 7 20+ plays. By comparison Bridgewater had 3. Carr 3. McCarron 2. Mettenberger 2. Garoppolo 1. Savage 0.

Conversely here's a list of 5yds or less completions after forced off the spot. Savage had 4. Bridgewater 4. Garoppolo 2. Bortles 1. Mettenberger 1. Carr 1. Manziel 1. McCarron 0.

Bridgewater's completion rate emphasizes his great pocket presence. By far the best at maneuvering away from the rush while still locking in....even if it's generally throwing short. What does stand out about him is his toughness.

Garoppolo was better than I thought he'd be. He does his best to impersonate Romo. But it seems like once he has to move his eyes come off anything downfield. Mettenberger was respectable for being the least mobile. The low amount of attempts reveals he's either getting protected or eating a sack. McCarron's numbers aren't entirely surprising considering he manages a Saban run first offense with a talented line, but still, with his decent mobility I expected him to be better. Savage was as I expected. He definitely had plenty opportunities.

For comparison I also charted 7 NFL gms of some of the best QBs to test my contention that throwing on the move from pass pressure is imperative for being a great pro QB.

Results:

Drew Brees
26 - 51 50.9% 3TD 1int

Tom Brady
13 - 25 52.0% 1TD 1int

Andrew Luck
19 - 37 51.3% 2TD 0int

Aaron Rodgers
22 - 48 45.8% 3TD 0int

Russell Wilson
26 - 56 46.4% 3TD 0int

The high number of attempts reveals it's a more necessary trait for a pro QB. Also, anyone saying Manziel's style is unique and can't work in the pros hasn't been paying attention to Russell Wilson. Wilson may have been a pocket guy at N.C. State and Wisconsin, but as a Seahawk, he's playing nearly identically to Manziel at A&M. He's not a pocket QB as a Seahawk.

Even though I've watched him for years I was surprised at how often Brees moves to avoid pressure. Luck was the most deadly of this group at burning you for a long pass play after eluding pressure. And Rodgers tended to move around most in the red zone.

@Trip @#1 pick @NYC Rebel
 
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GatorStaceyAdams

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Problem is, how do they handle pressure- not just the completion % etc.

Wilson, when he is moved out the pocket he isnt running around crazy, but he is looking to throw or pick up the first down with his legs. I dont hear the comparison enough, but Russell reminds me EXACTLY of a young Big Ben. Shifty and tough in the pocket- can use his legs if he needs to, but has the ability and prefers to hurt you with his arm. Both also will not lose the game for you, and work perfectly when you have a solid defense.

Johnny plays alot differently obviously. The kid bounces around the pocket with almost little regard. Although he will hurt you with his arm, you get the feeling that he prefers to throw the ball out the pocket. Which isnt necessarily a bad thing- but he doesnt have the elite size or speed/quickness to do that in the bigs...:manny:

Teddy, from what I've seen, just stays in the pocket and and doesnt get rattled at all. That to me is more impressive than the 'Top 10' scrambling plays you see on ESPN- because it reminds me of the calm and intellect of a Brees or a Brady. Thats what you want from your youn QB.


But on the real- I can see Teddy and Johnny both being successful in the league- But its almost largely on what team picks them:yeshrug:
 

mozichrome

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“If I was a GM in the NFL, I would not take him in the first round of the draft … You’ve got to see the quarterbacks throw the ball live. I’ve never seen a top quarterback in the last 10 years have a bad Pro Day until Teddy Bridgewater. He had no accuracy. The ball came out funny. The arm strength wasn’t there, and it made me question everything I saw on tape because this was live.”

—Mike Mayock, on the Petros and Money Show on AM-570 in Los Angeles (via Pro Football Talk)
 

GatorStaceyAdams

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“If I was a GM in the NFL, I would not take him in the first round of the draft … You’ve got to see the quarterbacks throw the ball live. I’ve never seen a top quarterback in the last 10 years have a bad Pro Day until Teddy Bridgewater. He had no accuracy. The ball came out funny. The arm strength wasn’t there, and it made me question everything I saw on tape because this was live.”

—Mike Mayock, on the Petros and Money Show on AM-570 in Los Angeles (via Pro Football Talk)

:snoop:
These draftniks are amazing..

Forget the game tape. Forget the body of work. Lets focus our entire attentions on a 'glorified practice':mjlol:

Teddy didnt do himself any favors throwing with no gloves- and it would be a hard argument for the Texans to now take him with the #1.

But to drop the guy from 1 all the way to 35- to just disregard his tape and body of work while creating faux excitement about scrubs (Carr, Savage)- is almost sickening...
 

KingsnBucs1987

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:snoop:
These draftniks are amazing..

Forget the game tape. Forget the body of work. Lets focus our entire attentions on a 'glorified practice':mjlol:

Teddy didnt do himself any favors throwing with no gloves- and it would be a hard argument for the Texans to now take him with the #1.

But to drop the guy from 1 all the way to 35- to just disregard his tape and body of work while creating faux excitement about scrubs (Carr, Savage)- is almost sickening...
Exactly, they didn't do this shyt with Andrew Luck, that's how you end up drafting the Jamarcus Russels and Kyle Bollers of the world. Why do they always ignore film of them playing but put so much stock into a glorified practice routine. Let him fall to 7, Tampa better grab him with the quickness.
 

godkiller

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Problem is, how do they handle pressure- not just the completion % etc.

I think the numbers showcase some objective measure of a QB's efficacy in changing spots and making completions, but I agree the numbers don't shed light on the nuances of how the QBs handle pressure. The numbers only show what the results were after the QB moves from his spot, not what caused him to move from that spot or whether moving was the right decision.

Wilson, when he is moved out the pocket he isnt running around crazy, but he is looking to throw or pick up the first down with his legs.

Johnny plays alot differently obviously. The kid bounces around the pocket with almost little regard. Although he will hurt you with his arm, you get the feeling that he prefers to throw the ball out the pocket. Which isnt necessarily a bad thing- but he doesnt have the elite size or speed/quickness to do that in the bigs...
:manny:

As I see it, Wilson had superior pocket presence to Manziel. In college Wilson usually only readjusted his positioning to throw when there was actual pressure in his face. He never created pressure when it wasn't there. Manziel does the opposite. And while Manziel has had incredible success at the college level with this strategy, there are no successful examples of QBs who do that on a regular basis in the NFL.

I'm talking about a QB who doesn't properly anticipate the depth of pressure (sees shadows) and reacts by moving spots prematurely (panicking). Manziel isn't always poor in comes to handling pressure, but he's decidedly worse then Wilson was in college, which the above statistics don't necessarily indicate. Therein lies the difference in Manziel and Wilson imho. I think it's an important distinction too.


Teddy, from what I've seen, just stays in the pocket and and doesnt get rattled at all. That to me is more impressive than the 'Top 10' scrambling plays you see on ESPN- because it reminds me of the calm and intellect of a Brees or a Brady. Thats what you want from your youn QB.

The statistics here indicate that Teddy completes plays after moving from his spot at similar percentages to Brees and Brady, with the caveat being fewer TDs. Whether that's a function of arm strength, lack of field vision, accuracy or anything significant is beyond me. It's noteworthy to consider that after moving from his spot, Manziel had 9 more 20+ yards passes than Bridgewater over the season. Bridgewater was 10% better in terms of completing passes but most of his passes were short. I'd like to see Brady and Brees' stats here. If Brady doesn't have very many deep players after moving from his spot but maintains a high completion, then Bridgewater is in good stead. Manziel is the wild card here. He'll be amazing or horrible.

“If I was a GM in the NFL, I would not take him in the first round of the draft … You’ve got to see the quarterbacks throw the ball live. I’ve never seen a top quarterback in the last 10 years have a bad Pro Day until Teddy Bridgewater. He had no accuracy. The ball came out funny. The arm strength wasn’t there, and it made me question everything I saw on tape because this was live.”

—Mike Mayock, on the Petros and Money Show on AM-570 in Los Angeles (via Pro Football Talk)

I'm going to quote this buffoon for posterity :russ:
 
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AITheAnswerAI

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Gruden was saying how he liked how tough Bridgewater is. So as long as he keeps those gloves on (he didn't have them on his pro day) then I think he'll do better than what a lot of these analysts have him ranked. The only concern is that his arm strength doesn't seem to be that great, but i'd prefer accuracy and being able to handle pressure over arm strength any day.
 

godkiller

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Exactly, they didn't do this shyt with Andrew Luck, that's how you end up drafting the Jamarcus Russels and Kyle Bollers of the world. Why do they always ignore film of them playing but put so much stock into a glorified practice routine. Let him fall to 7, Tampa better grab him with the quickness.

Luck's pro day wasn't as poor as Teddy's so I think the comparison is invalid to some degree. Luck was lambasted was some of the same criticisms ( Teddy is getting now. Luck silenced the critics with a 70 yard bomb in the wind (starts at 1:00):



I'm not sure Teddy has a strong enough arm to do what Luck did. His lack of arm strength is a legitimate gripe but I'd still take him at 3 if I'm the Jags. They can run a WC system and only try hitting deep occasionally.
 

PortCityProphet

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People who sit down and breakdown shyt like this to this depth for fun have a different
hobby. Whatever floats their boat tho
 

MoneyTron

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As much as I'd like to see Teddy go high in the draft, falling in the draft to a decent team would be great for him.
 

godkiller

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People who sit down and breakdown shyt like this to this depth for fun have a different
hobby. Whatever floats their boat tho

The hobby is sports analysis and draftniking, and if you're into sports--which itself is a hobby--why not get some education and know what you're talking. Everybody has hobbies: some people like to smoke weed and gossip bout Nicki Minaj, other people like to talk about draft projections. Get yours and fohh.
 
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