You're right, the Rams are second in the division. They are still a fifth seed.
I honestly don't discount Stafford for the short TD passes, but you can't ding Maye when his HB's run them in from short yardage. Stafford has stayed in late in games all season while Maye has been taken out early numerous times. Stafford and the Rams had a chance to win the division the past month and a half, and they crumbled, with him being a major reason why.
Other than raw number TD passes and yards which are in large part due to Stafford throwing more, Maye has him beat in almost every important statistical QB metric. At the end of the day, I think both have cases for them and that Stafford is going to win. I just believe that other than the raw numbers and the strength of schedule argument, Maye has a stronger case. At the end of the day, I'd much rather see the Patriots win the Super Bowl than Maye win the MVP.