Why Aaron Rodgers Grade Was Just Average Versus The Chiefs (PFF Article)

[King Kreole]

Why was it over his head though? Did the WR flatten out when the route was to continue upfield? Did an adjustment of the DB change the WR's route between the ball's release point and when it reached where the WR should have been? Did pressure in the pocket or contact initiating with the QB as he's throwing affect the throw? There are too many factors in there to put gradients on the pass beyond it just being an incompletion and, because of that, there's no way to make that into a statistical model.

For example, you see a pass land 5 yards to the left of a guy down the field. Some fictional model has that as a "bad pass" over just an incompletion, so it's -3 over -1 in numbers if you only watch the play. When seeing everyone come back to the line of scrimmage, you see the QB motion to the WR angrily hooking his hand inside seeming like that's the route he should have run. So, it seems the WR ran the route wrong, and, looking back at the play, you see if the WR followed the route the QB motioned at the point of release, he more than likely would have had a catch w/ YAC.

So is it back to -1? Is it now a positive play in the QB's numbers because it was a potential completion (like the potential interception) and the WR gets all the negatives? If the WR ran the route properly, how do you know the DB wouldn't recover and jump/block/disrupt the route? If the cameras don't catch that interaction between the players, you don't even know the WR busted the play &, without knowing the play yourself, you're just taking the QB's reaction as proof he did. And on top of all that, maybe the QB's out of the pocket and throwing to an open spot b/c there's no play to be had b/c the player ran the route wrong (which is still a "bad pass" but done for a specific reason to move on to the next play). Outside of the result of the play being an incomplete pass, everything else is all subjective guesswork on a pass that simply looks bad on the surface.

And that's just the problems in breaking down a "bad incomplete pass" vs an "incomplete pass". It's grading on hypotheticals and/or subjectives (like "interceptable passes" or "bad incomplete pass" ) I have an issue with when it's hard enough to break down, interpret and put numbers to what actually happened on the field. Some things, like incompletions, might have to remain a pretty broad statistic by necessity and breaking them down further more a subject of conversation than something to put into numbers.

There are definitely factors at play that aren't initially knowable from just looking at the tape, but as you stated in your example, you can actually usually tell when there's a miscommunication between the QB and receiver. Broken plays are easy to spot. The WR or QB will usually throw their hands up or look confused, one will usually cop to it. But body language is a very precarious metric to use, so I wouldn't use it as a significant factor in grading a pass. What I would use is the quality/difficulty of the read and throw (which is what PFF does), and you're basically saying it's impossible to grade the quality of a throw. If a QB throws into triple coverage and it's picked off, it's different than a DB making a great read on a ball and coming up with an athletic interception. Aaron Rodgers' interceptions are usually of a different type than Jay Cutler's interceptions, and it's unnecessarily inaccurate to grade them the same. No grading method will ever be complete because the statisticians aren't inside the heads of the QB, WR and coach, but we don't have to just accept all incompletions or interceptions as the same.

A QB should not be given the same grade for this throw

as he is for this "throw"

I actually don't have a big problem with PFF using potential outcomes in their grading. It doesn't matter if a defensive player drops a pass thrown right into his chest, the play was a terrible one that is very often intercepted.

Again, this pass

should not receive a better grade than this pass

.

Both are flukey plays, but the former was a terrible play from the QB, saved by an anomalous fluke, while the latter was a good play from the QB, ruined by a terrible play from the WR. If we don't factor in potentiality, we would end up giving Peyton a worse grade than the Rams QB, which is patently absurd.

 

[yseJ]

SMH, I hate this new age of over analysis and analytics and nonsense. EVERYONE has their own "criteria" for grading ppl nowadays

fukk all that shyt, I watched the game and that dude is the best in the League by far.

the 'analytics' agree with you with your 'analysis'- he is the best in the game according to them over several seasons. so whats the beef ?

 

[yseJ]

2 qbs can make the same exact throw and they will call one a perfect pass while saying the other couldve been intercepted had the db turned his head or some bullshyt like that

its actually very consistent- I do not see much qb bias. the only time Ive seen it from there was *maybe* for peyton and it didnt last long.

 

[BuddahMAC]

There are definitely factors at play that aren't initially knowable from just looking at the tape, but as you stated in your example, you can actually usually tell when there's a miscommunication between the QB and receiver. Broken plays are easy to spot. The WR or QB will usually throw their hands up or look confused, one will usually cop to it. But body language is a very precarious metric to use, so I wouldn't use it as a significant factor in grading a pass. What I would use is the quality/difficulty of the read and throw (which is what PFF does), and you're basically saying it's impossible to grade the quality of a throw. If a QB throws into triple coverage and it's picked off, it's different than a DB making a great read on a ball and coming up with an athletic interception. Aaron Rodgers' interceptions are usually of a different type than Jay Cutler's interceptions, and it's unnecessarily inaccurate to grade them the same. No grading method will ever be complete because the statisticians aren't inside the heads of the QB, WR and coach, but we don't have to just accept all incompletions or interceptions as the same.

I'm not denying there's a difference. I just don't see how you put numbers to it with so many variables, especially when, even though they're tracked as individual statistics, completions, incompletions, interceptions, etc... are a shared feat.

I agree I don't think it's necessarily fair or accurate when a ball bouncing off a receiver's hands ends up as just an INT for the QB in the box score, but I don't think discounting those & counting potential picks for non-interceptions is the answer either.

Guess I'm saying I like the nuance more in discussing the game than trying to put the nuance into numbers.

 

[Maschine_Man]

the 'analytics' agree with you with your 'analysis'- he is the best in the game according to them over several seasons. so whats the beef ?

is minus grade in this virtually perfect game he just palyed?
a minus? in what world is 5 tds no interceptions and a win deserving of a minus grade?

 

[King Kreole]

I'm not denying there's a difference. I just don't see how you put numbers to it with so many variables, especially when, even though they're tracked as individual statistics, completions, incompletions, interceptions, etc... are a shared feat.

I agree I don't think it's necessarily fair or accurate when a ball bouncing off a receiver's hands ends up as just an INT for the QB in the box score, but I don't think discounting those & counting potential picks for non-interceptions is the answer either.

Guess I'm saying I like the nuance more in discussing the game than trying to put the nuance into numbers.

Yeah i'm not sure exactly what goes into PFF's special sauce to make their grade, but I agree with their concepts. The totality of the play is a shared feat, but the player should be judged on their end of the job. So a good, catchable pass that is dropped by the WR shouldn't count against the QB's grade as much, because he did his job well. Matthew Stafford throwing into triple coverage shouldn't be getting excellent grades just because Megatron is immortal. Megatron should get the grades, Stafford didn't do anything special.

I definitely agree with you about the nuance though, I only use the numbers as support for stuff I didn't see. Aaron Rodgers put on a superlative displays of QBing last week, and if you just went by the stats you wouldn't know that. Actually discussing the game would reveal all the pre-snap, mobility and overall orchestration work that made Rodgers' performance so beautiful.

 

[Bboystyle]

I had a debate on Twitter a couple months back with one of the PFF dudes about this same stuff

It was about some bs stat they made up about "interceptable passes"

Basically passes that could've or should've been intercepted

The problem is its all subjective and these dudes are biased as fukk

2 qbs can make the same exact throw and they will call one a perfect pass while saying the other couldve been intercepted had the db turned his head or some bullshyt like that

they grade on throws into tight coverages and give them postive points. Technically, shouldnt those throws into tight windows be consdered "interceptable throws"?
they contradict their own reasoning.

 

[Lakerman0834]

why do people care about these nerd stats. Dweebs still trying to sit at cool table

 

[NYC Rebel]

their grades just are, their criteria is simple - they favor consistency over big plays and they emphasis PER SNAP, not PER GAME aggregation.

the fact that their grading scale have a ceiling and floor for each snap means someone who played 50 snaps and had three amazing, once-in-a-lifetime plays for TDs, can score a max of +6 on those plays, and can easily earn a negative grade overall if they got -.5 for like 10 plays they didnt give enough effort/missed their block on and a couple of bad plays for -1 and the rest average/making plays theyre supposed to (which is grade of 0)

their grades are per snap, and while they have some context, its still not enough context to have their grades being the focal point of a discussion.

the problem is the layman doesnt understand this. the layman thinks its a madden overall score for the game. its not. not to mention, there's always subjective points here and there.

in general, PFF is as good as any source of advanced analysis. the only thing I cant really fukk with is them grading defensive backs without seeing the all-22 first. that just doesnt sit right with me, some dudes guessing what the coverages were supposed to do off a tv cam ...but other than that, I have no beef with their grades. I have no beef with their evaluation of arod here. it's consistent with their grading system.

Giving me an explanation of how they grade doesn't change my point of how shytty that can be at times.

I've gone on to review some of the poor performances they've given to some players where after looking at the film it made no sense. Who they have making their judgement calls should come to question.

 

[yseJ]

Giving me an explanation of how they grade doesn't change my point of how shytty that can be at times.

I've gone on to review some of the poor performances they've given to some players where after looking at the film it made no sense. Who they have making their judgement calls should come to question.

I prolly misunderstood your point- you have no beef with the system but rather with individual breakdown of grades of snaps ie on judgment calls on subjective plays ?

 

[Sauce Dab]

PFF has no idea what they're talking about on stuff like this. The only thing PFF is good for is giving a clue on rankings at each position and they're not that good at that

 

[yseJ]

PFF has no idea what they're talking about on stuff like this. The only thing PFF is good for is giving a clue on rankings at each position and they're not that good at that

if you dont actually watch football and are relying on pff to give you 'rankings on each position', you are not doing it right. their rankings come from their grades anyway.

Ive always said, pff is a great supplement to watching football/tape- it is never a replacement. if people only watch redzone and expect for pff to fill in the blanks, thats not gonna work

 

[Sauce Dab]

if you dont actually watch football and are relying on pff to give you 'rankings on each position', you are not doing it right. their rankings come from their grades anyway.

Ive always said, pff is a great supplement to watching football/tape- it is never a replacement. if people only watch redzone and expect for pff to fill in the blanks, thats not gonna work

I don't rely on PFF at all. I just see people talk about it on Twitter so I'll look it up for myself and just

 

[Donald J Trump]

Anyone that says Rodgers is an average QB knows nothing about football

 

[Floyd Pinkerton]

Have an average 5-TD game brehs