actually the war in ukraine does play a part
ussia's invasion of Ukraine
Russia is one of the largest oil exporters on the planet. In December it sent nearly 8 million barrels of oil and other petroleum products to global markets, 5 million of them as crude oil.
Very little of that went to the United States. In 2021 Europe got 60% of the oil and 20% went to China. But oil is priced on global commodity markets, so the loss of Russian oil affects prices around the globe no matter where it is used.
The concerns about disrupting global markets led Western nations to initially exempt Russian oil and natural gas from the sanctions they put in place to protest the invasion.
But in March the United States announced a formal ban on all Russian energy imports. And Monday the EU announced a ban on imports of Russian oil by ship, which represented about two-thirds of the oil European nations imported from Russia. Russia's oil is slowly and steadily being removed from global markets.
China lockdowns ending
One factor keeping oil prices somewhat in check has been the surge of Covid cases, and strict lockdown rules in much of the country. That was a major drag on demand for oil.
But as the Covid surge has started to retreat, the lockdowns are being lifted in major cities such as Shanghai. And more demand without increased supply can only drive up prices.