I see a problem with that line of thinking
so the only difference is basically 'cannot make a mistake' on final drive...but I consider any time of football game that you cannot make a mistake.
if you made a pick six mistake on fist drive, it still a -7 pts and a wasted drive.
Nah breh, early in a game it's "should not" because although it's a negative, there's time to make up for that mistake (whether it's overcome by you, your defense, your special teams...whatever).
Late in the game it's "can not", because you don't have time to make up for that mistake.
I know you see this, you're just trying to carry on a narrative.
Do you think the down on which a mistake occurs is unimportant too? A drop on 1st, 2nd or 3rd down is all the same?