Election Day 2023: Let's Talk About It

[re'up]

Tuesday Was Great for Democrats. It Doesn’t Change the Outlook for 2024.

A pattern continued with success in low-turnout elections, which favors highly engaged voters. Presidential years tend to be different.

www.nytimes.com

The great question for the next year is whether these less engaged, less ideological, disaffected, young and nonwhite voters who don’t like Mr. Biden will return to his side once the campaign gets underway. The optimistic case for Mr. Biden centers on their disengagement: Perhaps he’ll win them back once the campaign reminds them of the stakes. The issues that powered Democratic strength Tuesday, like abortion, will be a central part of how he hopes to do so.

But these voters aren’t just disengaged, they’re also nonideological and disaffected. The issues that animate more regular voters, like abortion, might not be assured to win over these voters. Almost by definition, the two million Ohio voters who didn’t turn out Tuesday but who probably will next November aren’t the ones especially motivated by abortion, even if they support abortion rights in a poll. Instead, they might vote on pocketbook issues like the economy or on Mr. Biden’s age.

Either way, Mr. Biden’s path to re-election hinges on whether he can persuade these disaffected, less ideological voters to return to his side and then to turn out in his favor. Nothing about Tuesday’s results suggest this will be any easier.

 

[re'up]

Not sure what to think. Is an analysis like that parsing too much?

 

[Pressure]

This 4 day school week story on NPR is hilarious and highlights conservative ideology and incompetence

 

[iceberg_is_on_fire]

Tuesday Was Great for Democrats. It Doesn’t Change the Outlook for 2024.

A pattern continued with success in low-turnout elections, which favors highly engaged voters. Presidential years tend to be different.

www.nytimes.com

The great question for the next year is whether these less engaged, less ideological, disaffected, young and nonwhite voters who don’t like Mr. Biden will return to his side once the campaign gets underway. The optimistic case for Mr. Biden centers on their disengagement: Perhaps he’ll win them back once the campaign reminds them of the stakes. The issues that powered Democratic strength Tuesday, like abortion, will be a central part of how he hopes to do so.

But these voters aren’t just disengaged, they’re also nonideological and disaffected. The issues that animate more regular voters, like abortion, might not be assured to win over these voters. Almost by definition, the two million Ohio voters who didn’t turn out Tuesday but who probably will next November aren’t the ones especially motivated by abortion, even if they support abortion rights in a poll. Instead, they might vote on pocketbook issues like the economy or on Mr. Biden’s age.

Either way, Mr. Biden’s path to re-election hinges on whether he can persuade these disaffected, less ideological voters to return to his side and then to turn out in his favor. Nothing about Tuesday’s results suggest this will be any easier.

First, it was why can't democrats turn out in non presidential election years. Now it doesn't matter that we turn out in non president election years. They should have just run the same playbook through chatgpt and save some time.

 

[iceberg_is_on_fire]

This 4 day school week story on NPR is hilarious and highlights conservative ideology and incompetence

Link please breh.

 

[Pressure]

Link please breh.

https://www.npr.org/2023/10/25/1197954439/four-day-school-week-pros-and-cons

 

[Pressure]

Not sure if that’s the exact episode I heard on the radio. But TLDR, they went to a 4 day school week to attract teachers since they refused to raise property taxes to increase teacher pay.

In the end folks were spending 45 dollars a week for childcare instead of 60 dollars a year per 200k in home value.

Then other school systems with better pay adopted the 4 day school week and they could no longer attract teachers.

So now they’ll likely have to pay the increased tax and the additional childcare.

 

[bnew]

This 4 day school week story on NPR is hilarious and highlights conservative ideology and incompetence

https://www.npr.org/2023/10/25/1197954439/four-day-school-week-pros-and-cons

The rise of the four-day school week​

October 25, 20238:08 PM ET

By
Sarah Gonzalez
Mary Childs
Molly Messick

Sam Yellowhorse Kesler
LISTEN· 23:4823-Minute ListenPLAYLIST

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Rodin Eckenroth/Getty Images

Right now, a lot of school districts across the country are making a pretty giant change to the way public education usually works. Facing teacher shortages and struggling to fill vacant spots, they are finding a new recruitment tool: the four-day school week.

Those districts are saying to teachers, "You can have three-day weekends all the time, and we won't cut your pay." As of this fall, around 900 school districts – that's about 7% of all districts in the U.S. – now have school weeks that are just four days long.

And this isn't the first time a bunch of schools have scaled back to four days, so there is a lot of data to lean on to figure out how well it works.

In this episode, teachers love the four-day school week, and it turns out even parents love it, too. But is it good for students?

This episode was produced by Sam Yellowhorse Kesler with help from Willa Rubin. It was edited by Molly Messick and engineered by Maggie Luthar. Fact-checking by Sierra Juarez. Alex Goldmark is our executive producer.

 

[re'up]

First, it was why can't democrats turn out in non presidential election years. Now it doesn't matter that we turn out in non president election years. They should have just run the same playbook through chatgpt and save some time.

To me, what they are saying is that in this special elections/low turn out elections, Democrats who are VERY engaged showed up and won. These same Democrats will 100% show up for Biden in 2024, but could possibly not be enough to dispel the man many more engaged and less engaged Republican voters who will show up.

 

[iceberg_is_on_fire]

To me, what they are saying is that in this special elections/low turn out elections, Democrats who are VERY engaged showed up and won. These same Democrats will 100% show up for Biden in 2024, but could possibly not be enough to dispel the man many more engaged and less engaged Republican voters who will show up.

I follow that logic but I think the thing pollsters have universally failed to grasp is that we now look at every election to protect our rights. Republicans have shown their hand in this game of cards. We move accordingly now. We can't afford to give an itch. Trump running gives us Biden the easiest path to reelection because so many will come out to repudiate him.

 

[Saysumthinfunnymike]

Nate Silver had a spark when he started....now he's just garbage.

 

[Frump]

I follow that logic but I think the thing pollsters have universally failed to grasp is that we now look at every election to protect our rights. Republicans have shown their hand in this game of cards. We move accordingly now. We can't afford to give an itch. Trump running gives us Biden the easiest path to reelection because so many will come out to repudiate him.

Yeah they don’t grasp that most people don’t give a sh1t about Biden they’re gonna come out to vote against Trump and what the GOP is trying to do

I also think with all the egg they get on their face for getting 2016 wrong they have been overcompensating in Trumps direction ever since

 

[CEO of Morgan Industries]

Nate Silver had a spark when he started....now he's just garbage.

2008 and 2012 were a long time ago. Someone needs to sign that goof up for the political version of Larry Holmes Gardens.

 

[the next guy]

 

[Slim]

2008 and 2012 were a long time ago. Someone needs to sign that goof up for the political version of Larry Holmes Gardens.

He stopped being an empirical, statistically grounded, data nerd. He started feeling himself too much and got into political punditry.

"Should've stayed in food and beverage"