2020 Democratic Primary Thread: Focus on House & Senate races

[Secure Da Bag]

I don't think these two events are a coincidence.

Old Negroes



Biden Re-Takes Lead Over Warren in Polling Average, Surges with Black Voters in New Poll

Spoiler

By Tommy ChristopherOct 10th, 2019, 9:18 am

Biden Re-Takes Lead Over Warren in Polling Average, Surges with Black Voters in New Poll

Former Vice President and Democratic presidential candidate Joe Biden has re-taken a slim lead in the RealClearPolitics polling average — which he briefly lost to Massachusetts Senator Elizabeth Warren — and surged significantly with black voters in the most recent poll considered.

On Tuesday, Warren took the lead in the RCP average for the first time, 26.6 percent to Biden’s 26.4, but two days later Biden is back in the lead by a .2 percent margin. That’s because of a new Economist/YouGov poll that still shows Warren leading, but in which Biden improved on his performance since the last time the poll was taken.

Overall, Warren leads Biden in that poll 29 percent to Biden’s 25, but that result is tighter than the 28-22 percent margin from last week’s Economist/YouGov poll. That’s not the most auspicious way to retake a lead, but it beats a poke in the eye with a sharp stick.

The good news for Biden in this poll is that he surged six points with black voters, from 36 percent to 42 percent, increasing his dominance with a key Democratic constituency. He also gained two points each with white and Hispanic voters. Warren was steady with black voters at 15 percent, but she gained 4 points with Hispanic voters and three points with whites.

California Senator Kamala Harris’ overall support in this poll was flat at 5 percent, but she ticked up two points with black voters and five points with Hispanic voters, while losing one point with whites.

There’s a bit of good news for Bernie Sanders, who only lost one point in this poll, and has seen his RCP average tick slightly up since his heart attack last week.

Warren has significant momentum nationally, and has seen her support double since July, but she’s only gained five points with black voters since then. The Democratic primary calendar gives outsize influence to predominantly white states like Iowa and New Hampshire, but a diverse coalition is crucial to the success of the party’s primary candidates. Warren leads the RCP average in Iowa, but trails Biden in every other state that the site is tracking.

Conversely, Biden’s overall support is the same as it was in July, while he has continued to gain with black voters. But Warren’s surge nationally has garnered a lot of positive media coverage, which is a huge advantage in the era of earned media. Both campaigns should pay attention to these trends, as should the rest of the field.

 

[ADevilYouKhow]

‘An existential political risk’: Trump manufactures a swing-state problem — POLITICO

 

[NY's #1 Draft Pick]

Holy shyt!! My dawg gillum and fave candidate joining forces?!

I’d love to volunteer for your campaign senator warren!

 

[☑︎#VoteDemocrat]

 

[☑︎#VoteDemocrat]

Holy shyt!! My dawg gillum and fave candidate joining forces?!

I’d love to volunteer for your campaign senator warren!

 

[wire28]

WARREN AND GILLUM?!?!!!!!!!

jordan and pippen

shaq and kobe

steph and klay

liz and drew

 

[☑︎#VoteDemocrat]

 

[storyteller]

What are your concerns about the ticket, besides Foreign Policy?

I actually really like Gillum as a candidate and think he bodies Pence in a VP debate. My concern is that the lefties that are skeptical of Warren on things like M4A actually had a similar set of questions about Gillum after he won the primary and softened his rhetoric for the broader base. I like Gillum as a candidate better than her, but think Abrams would get more love from the lefties tbh but that's speculation on my part. From what I saw, Gillum got hit with skepticism that Abrams was able to avoid for some reason. I remember things like this Jimmy Dore clip and think if anything, Gillum might actually turn the lefties that are already skeptical of Warren more off (not myself but a significant chunk of the left that I typically debate with about strategy as it is).



I feel like Warren is already covering the bridge candidate role. She should sure up either the lefty purists or the centrist purists with her choice. I'm not sure Gillum accomplishes that. I like Gillum as VP on any of the more centrist candidates' tickets more. I think he'd make any of those candidates an easier pill to swallow for the left leaning squad like myself. But if you go further left (honestly, I don't even know that I'd categorize them as to my left but just different lefty demographics), I'm not sure he does anything for those heads. That's the Tulsi, Yang and a chunk of the Bernie supporters I have in mind here. It's not that he's not good for plenty, I just think Warren already has those votes locked up assuming she wins the primary (she's got me locked up).

 

[Berniewood Hogan]

jordan and pippen

shaq and kobe

steph and klay

liz and drew

They'll be Lebron and Wade in 2010.

"WE ALREADY WON! WE ALREADY WON!"

And then they lose to an ugly cac

 

[dtownreppin214]

 

[Jhoon]

Gilliam ran a terrible campaign. The senator had more votes than him. If he can’t win Florida what good is he?

 

[dtownreppin214]

They had a good discussion about this on Pod Save America. The revenue Facebook gets from political ads is a drop in the bucket of their overall ad revenue. Makes you wonder why they don't just scrap political ads all together and regain some goodwill from their users. Seems like a wise business move for the long run.

 

[storyteller]

I’m open to different ideas. I define reparations as a non universal policy meant to address historic economic sabotage/discrimination levied against people of majority African decent through slavey, Jim Crow, Cointelpro, the war on drugs and the prison industrial complex.

For example, Warren and Harris have Redlining proposals. I wouldn’t consider this reparations unless it is apart of a bigger package. It is just good policy. I don’t consider criminal justice reform reparations.

Now what you basically asking me is what non monetary payment would I accept as reparations. I would consider a combination of business education, business grants for both existing and start up Black business. I would say I would accept some type of job training programs, but it might not be necessary with tuition free college. But if it something more direct it might still work. It doesn’t have did specifically what I just mentioned, but I think you get the idea of what i’m talking about.

Okay got you. That makes a lot of sense. I've always kinda looked at proposals like the Redlining ones as sneaking reparations past the broader public (basically a safer way to target PoC with policy that wouldn't draw the ire of the white voter and some Spanish heads too being completely frank). My main assumption here is that, I think if they outright stated that these proposals are focused on PoC then the pushback from white Boomers would be obnoxious and frustrating like it gets with a lot of other solid policy proposals. So I can definitely see our disconnect on the rhetoric debate now, because I bake more policy into my reparations equation under a "it's strategic but heart's in the right place" rationalization that is built on an assumption admittedly. I can definitely see where you're coming from on it from that respect, glad to have this discourse. It'll inform my appeals when I'm door knocking for my big two (Bernie and Warren) in the future

 

[dtownreppin214]

Gilliam ran a terrible campaign. The senator had more votes than him. If he can’t win Florida what good is he?

Well good think she's not vetting him for her campaign manager. What VP candidate out there besides maybe Beto would wins Warren a state that she wouldn't otherwise win? She needs someone to get the black vote up around '08 numbers.

 

[☑︎#VoteDemocrat]