Okay, let's DEAD this stupid shyt once and for all. Let me break it down for fools too scary to think straight.
#1. The first thing that matters is turnout. Sanders is the BEST candidate for increasing turnout. He's the favorite among latinos, the favorite among young people, the favorite among independents, the favorite among young blacks. NO ONE reaches those traditional low-turnout groups like he does. And the vast majority of them are gonna go blue down-ballot.
That alone will make Bernie a net positive for the down-ballot races no matter what else happens.
#2. Then maybe there are some Trump haters who can't stand Bernie and would never vote for him. Those are mostly going to be old White centrists, especially Hillary fans bitter from 2016. You think those people will stay home? Those kinda voters NEVER stay home. Even if they refuse to vote for Bernie, they're still the kind of loyal dems who will show up just to go Blue down-ballot. In fact they might be even more likely to do that because if they are shook of another four years of Trump then they'll be shook of him having Senate power for another term.
#3. So then lets pretend there are centrists who are so fukking right-wing that they will literally choose Trump over Bernie. Think for a moment - if they are centrists who would have voted for a Biden or a Buttigieg but not Bernie, then why would rejecting Bernie make them reject the down-ballot dems who are even more conservative than the presidential candidate they favored? Splitting the ballot is still a thing for some moderates, if they actually go so far as to reluctantly choose Trump over Bernie, then they'll probably be MORE likely to vote Blue down-ballot because they want to split the ballot and not give Trump too much power.
#4. Literally the only thing you have to worry about is Trump voter turnout. Except that his base is small and rabid. How much extra turnout do you think Trump really has? His base is already energized as fukk, why would nominating the most well-liked Democrat energize them significantly, when he's the guy who goes on Fox News town halls and Joe Rogan's show and wins over the crowds? He's the most trustworthy candidate on the Democratic side, he connects the most naturally to rural folk, he doesn't have any base of haters built in. How many people you seriously think are gonna be energized to vote against him who wouldn't be voting already?
Don't be stupid. Don't follow unbalanced political operatives like Nap who can't develop a coherent train of thought. I just laid it out for you - Sanders is the best candidate for down-ballot voters and you can't make a logical argument otherwise. If anyone REALLY thinks there's a different argument, then show me EXACT where those extra votes for Republicans would come from and why the extra votes from new pro-Bernie voters wouldn't vastly outweigh them.
23M non-college educated white men and several million Evangelicals did not vote in 2016. Pascale has been working overtime to reach these people and get them registered for 2020. Also, Trump will inevitably gain pocketbook voters for successfully keeping the economy afloat for three years, particularly when the alternative is a man attempting to sell a revolution and a tax overhaul during relatively good times. So it is inaccurate to say that Trump does not have room to expand the tent. He does and what's sad is you guys seem content forfeiting one of the pillars of the 2018 Democratic constituency - white educated women. Bernie is running even w/ Trump for them before spending a dime on anti-Bernie advertisement. If that holds it will be a disaster for Dems in 2020. In the chart below you can see for yourself what the spread was in 2018. Bernie isn't making that up with young and latinX voters, sell that shyt to someone else more naive than me.
The inconvenient truth for you guys is while Bernie will undoubtedly run it up in liberal bastions across the country, the moderates from the '18 class that won in affluent purple districts like the suburbs of Atlanta, Dallas, Southern California, and Western PA will most likely lose if they are anchored to a socialist atop the ticket. If a guy like Colin Aldred, a potential star for the Democratic Party, has to go to the business community in North Dallas and spend time and energy explaining to them why our party's leader wants to force US companies to dilute shareholders and divert profits so that employees own 20% of the company, he will lose. If Conor Lamb has to go to his constituents and tip toe around the fact that our party's leader wants to implement an immediate ban on fracking, he will lose. If Mark Kelly has to explain away why our party's leader wants to not only decriminalize the border but take it a step further and repeal the 1325 stature, he will lose.
I believe Bernie's current high favorables come from the fact that most Americans still think of Bernie as "the independent that took on evil Hillary and got screwed by the party". When they hear about how extreme his policies/views are, suburban voters who voted D in 2018 are going to run back to the GOP faster than you can believe. From a Texas Democrat’s perspective who is hopeful about the possibility of flipping the legislature, I'm not enamored with any of the candidates helping getting this done, I personally support Warren, she shares many of his policy proposals, but I believe there are distinct negative implications running a “socialist” at the top of ticket.
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