At what point did the NBA start drafting these players based on “potential” but didn’t even start or put up numbers?

[Goat poster]

Exaggeration, baseball guys are drafted outta high school and become starting players in the majors when they are like 30(also exaggeration)

Football used to be the same as basketball for QB. A lot to learn and body is still not optimal. In this hot take era people expect everybody to be Cam or at least CJ

Baseball has so many rounds and THE BEST pro farm system in North America.

NBA is goofy wit they process...

 

[Po pimp]

European teams, especially the top ones in the main leagues are not giving minutes to 18-19 years old like that. Luka was the exception because he was a generational talent. Even when Brandon Jennings went over there he was only averaging like 5-6 PPG

Really it depends on the context. Someone like Carter Bryant was coming off the bench only averaging a small amount of points but when you watch the film he basically fits the mold to a T of what teams want out of a 3&D wing. On the flip side you may have someone putting up huge numbers but the way their able to play on their college team won't translate to how they'll be used in the NBA

It's situational

So why draft an 18-19 year old that has shown nothing? I guess they would rather draft them and try to develop the players themselves. Even with Brandon Jennings not getting minutes over there, he was one of the top HS players in the country. Nowadays, you”ll see players who were marginal starters in HS, then role players in college become lottery picks because of “measurables” and how they tested in the combine.

 

[SchoolboyC]

So why draft an 18-19 year old that has shown nothing? I guess they would rather draft them and try to develop the players themselves. Even with Brandon Jennings not getting minutes over there, he was one of the top HS players in the country. Nowadays, you”ll see players who were marginal starters in HS, then role players in college become lottery picks because of “measurables” and how they tested in the combine.

Pretty much

 

[Regular_P]

Have your team draft a guy with no stats and no measurables then talk to me

And then hire a coach with no experience or measurables to "develop" him.

 

[Po pimp]

Have your team draft a guy with no stats and no measurables then talk to me

Who is your team and who did they draft?

 

[Trojan 24]

Who is your team and who did they draft?

Bronny James

 

[Gil Scott-Heroin]

Stats don't matter and I'm assuming their respective usage and roles in the NBA vs college don't matter either for your argument. I say that because Edey went from being the #1 option in college and fed the ball all game long to a 4th/5th scoring option in the NBA.

You're making my argument for me.

That's because he wasn't good enough to be a #1 option. He played more than enough games to force himself into the frame of being a go-to option for the Grizzlies, but his play didn't warrant having those volume of touches. This is why despite him having that role in college, putting up those numbers, he wasn't good enough to replicate it (in relation) when he hit the league.

You brought up college numbers/stats in this thread. Ironically enough, I pointed out their NBA stats for the rookie seasons and still, that doesn't matter... for this argument. Now you're saying Castle had more impact in the NBA... how are you quantifying that? Because he put up better surface level numbers... right? Wait? What are we doing here?

I'm measuring it by how well he can create his own offense, how he adjusted to playing against NBA defenses and how he forced himself into having a bigger role (where he ended up averaging 19 ppg over the last two months).

Your mistake here is failing to see the representation of Castle going from 11 ppg at UConn to 15 ppg in his rookie season, whereas Edey went all the way from B2B 22 ppg seasons in college to 9 ppg in his rookie season. Your mistake here is failing to see the representation of 19/20 year olds having different trajectories than a 23-year-old who should be much further along than what he showed during his rookie season.

How is this not evident to you that putting up numbers in college shouldn't be a directive of when a player should be drafted?

But even that is hilarious because when you pull up their advanced numbers, Edey has a higher PER and a higher Win Share



Better defensive rating, better offensive rating as well

You just referenced a bunch of stats that are predicated on the lineups a player is in, and since the Spurs only won 34 games and the Grizzlies won 48, it would stand to reason the player on the better team would have better advanced stats based upon who the play alongside.

 

[yseJ]

NBA drafts are typically top heavy due to nature of the game and roster composition, so it makes a lot sense past a certain point to go for high ceiling or boom/bust prospects than lower ceiling "safe" guys who will be like 5-7 ppg players who are end of the bench status


I feel like this is the same reason protected picks are always passed around like two dollar hoes

 

[x-factor7]

Taking Darko milicic over Carmelo Anthony

Yes, he averaged like 7 and 5 in Serbia. Joe D was impressed by a workout he did when they were in the same gym for a playoff game.

 

[MushroomX]

Thinking about it... the turning point in the NBA’s obsession with potential over production was Darko's selection in the 2003 Draft. By then, Dirk Nowitzki had become a star, and teams were desperate to find “the next Dirk.”; a guy who maybe was underlooked, but given a few years, would blow up in the NBA.

 

[Fresh]

Taking Darko milicic over Carmelo Anthony

you know what, can ANYONE tell me what Detroit was thinking ???

 

[GoldenGlove]

you know what, can ANYONE tell me what Detroit was thinking ???

They just won the title vs the Lakers and they were all in on their core guys.

Tayshaun Prince was there already and they didn't take Melo because in their eyes, they had their guy at SF. They talked themselves into Darko and bought into the hype.

And it wasn't just Melo who they passed on either. That class had Bosh and Wade in it as well

 

[Cladyclad]

Kg
kobe
tmac

3 consecutive years

i say that era lol

 

[Po pimp]

They just won the title vs the Lakers and they were all in on their core guys.

Tayshaun Prince was there already and they didn't take Melo because in their eyes, they had their guy at SF. They talked themselves into Darko and bought into the hype.

And it wasn't just Melo who they passed on either. That class had Bosh and Wade in it as well

No they didn’t. They won the title when Darko was a rookie. It was actually the Rasheed Wallace trade that put them over the hump, but they could’ve easily added Melo to that core and brought Tayshawn off the bench. There’s a chance Melo wouldn’t have started though because Larry Brown was the coach. Carlisle had just gotten fired.

 

[GoldenGlove]

Thinking about it... the turning point in the NBA’s obsession with potential over production was Darko's selection in the 2003 Draft. By then, Dirk Nowitzki had become a star, and teams were desperate to find “the next Dirk.”; a guy who maybe was underlooked, but given a few years, would blow up in the NBA.

Crazy situation because Melo just finished winning the National Title, was only a Freshmen and was clearly going to be a factor Day 1 no matter who picked him.

That was the first time I remember people just accepting that Darko was going 2nd based on the allure around him but I think most who followed the league at that time would say Melo was a much safer bet to hit. It was obvious. There was no bust talk hanging over Melo's head