Boiler Room: The Official Stock Market Discussion

[FreshFromATL]

Lucid is trading right now at 40x 2022 projected revenue. Tesla is trading at 15X average estimated 2022 revenue. Lucid is bad right now as it's more expensive than Tesla. Rivian however is insane. It's $20 billion away from being worth more than Ford and GM combined. At this point it's a game of musical chairs for who the bag holders will be when the music stops. It's not an investment right now it's just gambling. It will be several years before that company is putting up numbers that justify what it cost right now.

I know it's easy to get swept up in irrational behavior of others and watch a share price continue to climb but valuation matters and when all the insanity subsides this thing is gonna freefall back to earth.

I agree near-term but long-term, but how you think Ford/GM gonna make it in a post clean energy world? You honestly think legacy companies that have only ever focused on the combustion engine can all of a sudden switch gears and become battery and tech companies at scale easily?

I expect to see hella partnerships between legacy automakers (Ford/GM/Volkswagen etc.) and the likes of Lucid/Tesla/Rivian, etc. Without it, those legacy companies going out like Blockbuster refusing to partner with Netflix.

 

[Tunez]

• Ford owns about 12% of the company through investments that started in 2019 as well as convertible notes, according to public filings by Rivian.
• Based on Rivian's closing price of $100.73 a share Wednesday following its Nasdaq debut, Ford's roughly 102 million shares of the company are worth about $10.3 billion.
• Ford purchased the shares for an aggregate of $820 million, according to public documents.

 

[GoldenGlove]

I agree, but how you think Ford/GM gonna make it in a post clean energy world? You honestly think legacy companies that have only ever focused on the combustion engine can all of a sudden switch gears and become battery and tech companies at scale easily?

I expect to see hella partnerships between legacy automakers (Ford/GM/Volkswagen etc.) and the likes of Lucid/Tesla/Rivian, etc. Without it, those legacy companies going out like Blockbuster refusing to partner with Netflix.

Yes. I wouldn't say easily, but easier than a new company starting from 0.

Legacy manufacturers will obviously adapt and have more options at lower prices then Tesla IMO

 

[FaTaL]

I agree, but how you think Ford/GM gonna make it in a post clean energy world? You honestly think legacy companies that have only ever focused on the combustion engine can all of a sudden switch gears and become battery and tech companies at scale easily?

I expect to see hella partnerships between legacy automakers (Ford/GM/Volkswagen etc.) and the likes of Lucid/Tesla/Rivian, etc. Without it, those legacy companies going out like Blockbuster refusing to partner with Netflix.

the only advantage they have is having the facilities which the new ev companies don’t have. Creating the technology will be their biggest hurdle, if they haven’t been able to see what is happening they will cease to exist.

 

[FreshFromATL]

the only advantage they have is having the facilities which the new ev companies don’t have. Creating the technology will be their biggest hurdle, if they haven’t been able to see what is happening they will cease to exist.

they won’t even have that advantage for much longer.

 

[FaTaL]

they won’t even have that advantage for much longer.

Probably 2 years, they better not miss on their ev trucks

 

[Chrishaune]

• Ford owns about 12% of the company through investments that started in 2019 as well as convertible notes, according to public filings by Rivian.
• Based on Rivian's closing price of $100.73 a share Wednesday following its Nasdaq debut, Ford's roughly 102 million shares of the company are worth about $10.3 billion.
• Ford purchased the shares for an aggregate of $820 million, according to public documents.

So Ford is over $15 billion now and getting closer to $20 billion

probably going to pay for their whole transition to electric off of this one stock.

 

[Chrishaune]

Probably 2 years, they better not miss on their ev trucks

They are already putting them out. They also are building EV delivery vans for Amazon. Amazon, Ford, etc have too much invested to let them go out bad at this point.


This ain't Nikola.

 

[dora_da_destroyer]

I agree near-term but long-term, but how you think Ford/GM gonna make it in a post clean energy world? You honestly think legacy companies that have only ever focused on the combustion engine can all of a sudden switch gears and become battery and tech companies at scale easily?

I expect to see hella partnerships between legacy automakers (Ford/GM/Volkswagen etc.) and the likes of Lucid/Tesla/Rivian, etc. Without it, those legacy companies going out like Blockbuster refusing to partner with Netflix.

Ford and GM have been making big investments into EV, offering more and more cars, partnering on battery tech, investing in charging, etc. If anything, they will be the winners of this as they have the production capacity and know-how. I see a lot of acquisitions happening in this space as the big auto makers buy these companies to offer an EV brand underneath the parent brand

GM also has cruise, one of the biggest autonomous driving companies

 

[winb83]

I agree near-term but long-term, but how you think Ford/GM gonna make it in a post clean energy world? You honestly think legacy companies that have only ever focused on the combustion engine can all of a sudden switch gears and become battery and tech companies at scale easily?

I expect to see hella partnerships between legacy automakers (Ford/GM/Volkswagen etc.) and the likes of Lucid/Tesla/Rivian, etc. Without it, those legacy companies going out like Blockbuster refusing to partner with Netflix.

Ford and GM are already transitioning to EVs.

GM has a trailing 12 month net income of $11 billion. GM has gross profits from normal operations. GM is in a better position to transition to and scale an EV business than some of these startups that are starting from nothing. GM has brand goodwill. You really think they're afraid of some EV startup that's not even gonna sell 25K cars total next year and is still struggling to scale properly?

 

[dora_da_destroyer]

Probably 2 years, they better not miss on their ev trucks

lol @ 2 years, yall just talking. TSLA been in the game over a decade with only 4 factories...stop it

edit...also want to add TSLA first factory was one they bought from Toyota...I toured that factory back in college...it takes a lot to get a full production facility up and running, these new companies gonna need to partner to expand or keep serving a very small niche of high end buyers due to production restraints and low economies of scale which leads to this conundrum of them being severely overpriced for the actual sales they'll be able to achieve in the medium term

 

[FreshFromATL]

Ford and GM are already transitioning to EVs.

GM has a trailing 12 month net income of $11 billion. GM has gross profits from normal operations. GM is in a better position to transition to and scale an EV business than some of these startups that are starting from nothing. GM has brand goodwill. You really think they're afraid of some EV startup that's not even gonna sell 25K cars total next year and is still struggling to scale properly?

We shall see because they're definitely on the clock given that new gas cars sells will likely be banned in most places by 2030-2035.

 

[winb83]

We shall see because they're definitely on the clock given that new gas cars sells will likely be banned in most places by 2030-2035.

You saying this as if they aren't going in on transitioning to EVs. They can use their ICE business to fuel the EV transition. They won't have to do anywhere near the level of fundraising the EV startups will. The only issue I see is both companies have an undesirable level of debt but so will those EV startups when all is said and done.

 

[dora_da_destroyer]

let's act like GM wasn't producing EV's way back in 1996 brehs...the EV1 was some ugly shyt, but they were on it the big 3 almost died in the financial crisis of 08, after almost dying from displacement by the japanese in the late 80's & 90's....these companies know when and how to respond to ensure survival. they may not be at the forefront of making the market but they quickly adapt to what the market wants. you don't be in business for over 100 years and not know how to pivot.

 

[FreshFromATL]

Unloaded 35% of my Lucid shares at $58 (been in since the $12-$15. CCIV days). Gonna let the other 65% keep rocking (will buy back in if it falls below $40).