National security
Tokyo fears Brussels will lift China arms ban after Brexit
Abe adviser says balance of power in Indo-Pacific region could change
ROBIN HARDING — TOKYO
Japan fears Brexit will lead to an eventual lifting of the EU arms embargo on China, as the consequences of Britain’s divorce from Brussels ripple around the world.
In an interview with the Financial Times, Katsuyuki Kawai — a member of parliament and special adviser to Prime Minister Shinzo Abe on foreign affairs — said Brexit “could even change the balance of power in the Indo-Pacific region”.
Mr Kawai’s comments show how traditional British allies fear that the UK’s loss of influence in Europe could hurt their own national security.
“Among our friends in the EU, the United Kingdom was the strongest supporter of Japan’s view that the arms embargo on China should continue,” said Mr Kawai. “Taking the UK out, perhaps little by little the arms embargo on China could be lifted. That is something we must not see.”
The EU imposed a ban on weapons sales after China’s 1989 crackdown on pro-democracy demonstrators in Tiananmen Square. Beijing has pushed for the embargo to be lifted and the matter remains a sore point in China-EU relations.
Spain and France have in the past favoured lifting the embargo. The UK, whose arms companies make large sales to the US Department of Defence, has been a strong proponent of keeping it. China has made big strides in modernising its military but would still benefit from access to cutting-edge European technology.
Lifting the ban requires unanimity among the EU nations, so no change is likely until London formally leaves, and it is not a certainty even then. But post-Brexit, the balance on such foreign policy questions within the union is likely to shift.
So far Tokyo has mainly focused on the consequences of Brexit for the 1,000 or so Japanese companies with operations in the UK, which risk losing their access to the European market. But Mr Kawai said foreign policy needed attention as well.
“The national security implications may be as great, or even greater, than the economic impact so I’m paying close attention,” he said.
As well as specific issues such as the arms embargo, officials in Tokyo fear the UK and Europe will be too wrapped up in domestic problems to pay much attention to Asia, where China is challenging the territorial status quo in both the East and South China Seas.
“For the next two or three years, Europe will be extremely busy dealing with European issues,” said Yoshiji Nogami, president of the Japan Institute of International Affairs, and a former ambassador to the UK.
Japan is trying to marshal support for “universal values” and the use of international law to settle territorial claims in Asia. A UN tribunal is due to rule on July 12 in a case brought by the Philippines against Chinese claims in the South China Sea.
“I feel like not just politicians but the British people may turn inwards, towards domestic affairs or creating a new relationship with the EU, and lose interest in what happens beyond that, such as the defence co-operation with Japan or security in the Asia-Pacific region,” said Mr Kawai.
“That is why I am concerned about the possibility of a change in the power balance.”
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