Part 3:
In a poll of voters in factory towns in swing states, Lake Research found that the single greatest “negative perception” of the Democrats was that they “were obsessed with LGBT transgender issues instead of focusing on kitchen table economic issues.” In a post-election poll of swing voters conducted by YouGov, Greenberg Research found that the top reason voters opposed Harris was they believed she was for “open borders.” That was followed by prices being too high and by Harris and the Democrats’ assumed support for transgender athletes and for “ultra-left and woke Democrats.”
The New York Times asked voters after the election what they thought were the most important issues and what they thought the top issues were for the Democratic and Republican parties. The poll found that voters viewed abortion, LGBT policy, and climate change as the Democrats’ top issues, revealing the degree to which the party is seen to be preoccupied with social and environmental issues that are anathema to many working-class and rural and small-town voters.
Many of these voters may agree with Democrats on certain issues. Lake Research found, for instance, that rural voters share Democrats’ positions on drug prices, greater access to affordable healthcare, and tax breaks for the wealthy and corporations. But many of these voters reject the party itself and recoil at the very idea of voting for a Democrat. What counts is the overall image. Jacobs and Shea contend that rural voters hold a “heightened grievance toward government and urban areas,” which they associate with the Democratic Party. They view Democrats as disdainful of or indifferent toward rural communities, and believe that because of Democrats, they are “being held back and sacrificed for the betterment of others.” “Grievance,” Jacobs and Shea write, “explains why rural voters are so hostile to the Democratic party.”
Democrats’ woes among male voters, which rose clearly to the surface in the 2024 election, stem from the changes in the party’s leadership and base that have shaped its priorities. In the wake of Bill Clinton’s campaign declaring 1992 “the year of the woman,” Republican analyst Jude Wanniski dubbed the Democrats the “mommy party.” Since then, college-educated women have become a key part of the party’s leadership and its voting base. That culminated in Hillary Clinton’s 2016 campaign, in which she asked voters to support her because she would become the first woman president. Likewise, as a presidential candidate in 2024, Harris was at her most passionate promoting abortion rights and least convincing talking about economics.
As Democrats have campaigned vigorously for women’s rights, many male voters have felt scorned or ignored. As Richard Reeves, the author of Of Boys and Men, has noted, the counterpart to the Democrats’ focus on feminist concerns was the party’s seeming indifference to the plight of young males, who suffer from a high suicide rate and an absence of opportunity. Indeed, activist groups and writers associated with the Democrats were also quick to associate men with “toxic masculinity” and to blame Trump’s success on misogyny.
In 2024, the GOP was able to exploit Democrats’ indifference or hostility toward young men and growing male resentment against women’s advancement. Many men, and particularly younger men, see the progress of women in education and employment as coming at their expense. According to a Brookings study, 45 percent of the men aged 18 to 29 say they face discrimination as men. According to a Pew poll, 38 percent of men who identify as Republican say “women’s gains have come at the expense of men.” As the “mommy party,” the Democrats were sure to invite the wrath of many male voters. Many of these voters were also working-class and many lived in rural areas and small towns, but Harris also lost young men with college degrees—a group that was formerly in the Democratic corner.
To say that the trends described here give the Republicans an edge nationally is not to say that Republicans have acquired a stable, long-term majority. The overall numbers remain close, and presidential elections are likely to be settled by swing states that could go either way. Democrats can win if voters’ fear and dislike of a Republican president or of extreme Republican policies overshadows their misgivings about Democrats. That happened in 2020 and in the 2018 and 2022 congressional elections, and could happen in 2026 and 2028, especially if Trump continues to exceed his popular mandate. Trump’s collaboration with the anti-government libertarian Elon Musk, whose priorities do not mesh with those of many Americans, may prove a liability.
In a poll of voters in factory towns in swing states, Lake Research found that the single greatest “negative perception” of the Democrats was that they “were obsessed with LGBT transgender issues instead of focusing on kitchen table economic issues.” In a post-election poll of swing voters conducted by YouGov, Greenberg Research found that the top reason voters opposed Harris was they believed she was for “open borders.” That was followed by prices being too high and by Harris and the Democrats’ assumed support for transgender athletes and for “ultra-left and woke Democrats.”
The New York Times asked voters after the election what they thought were the most important issues and what they thought the top issues were for the Democratic and Republican parties. The poll found that voters viewed abortion, LGBT policy, and climate change as the Democrats’ top issues, revealing the degree to which the party is seen to be preoccupied with social and environmental issues that are anathema to many working-class and rural and small-town voters.
Many of these voters may agree with Democrats on certain issues. Lake Research found, for instance, that rural voters share Democrats’ positions on drug prices, greater access to affordable healthcare, and tax breaks for the wealthy and corporations. But many of these voters reject the party itself and recoil at the very idea of voting for a Democrat. What counts is the overall image. Jacobs and Shea contend that rural voters hold a “heightened grievance toward government and urban areas,” which they associate with the Democratic Party. They view Democrats as disdainful of or indifferent toward rural communities, and believe that because of Democrats, they are “being held back and sacrificed for the betterment of others.” “Grievance,” Jacobs and Shea write, “explains why rural voters are so hostile to the Democratic party.”
Democrats’ woes among male voters, which rose clearly to the surface in the 2024 election, stem from the changes in the party’s leadership and base that have shaped its priorities. In the wake of Bill Clinton’s campaign declaring 1992 “the year of the woman,” Republican analyst Jude Wanniski dubbed the Democrats the “mommy party.” Since then, college-educated women have become a key part of the party’s leadership and its voting base. That culminated in Hillary Clinton’s 2016 campaign, in which she asked voters to support her because she would become the first woman president. Likewise, as a presidential candidate in 2024, Harris was at her most passionate promoting abortion rights and least convincing talking about economics.
As Democrats have campaigned vigorously for women’s rights, many male voters have felt scorned or ignored. As Richard Reeves, the author of Of Boys and Men, has noted, the counterpart to the Democrats’ focus on feminist concerns was the party’s seeming indifference to the plight of young males, who suffer from a high suicide rate and an absence of opportunity. Indeed, activist groups and writers associated with the Democrats were also quick to associate men with “toxic masculinity” and to blame Trump’s success on misogyny.
In 2024, the GOP was able to exploit Democrats’ indifference or hostility toward young men and growing male resentment against women’s advancement. Many men, and particularly younger men, see the progress of women in education and employment as coming at their expense. According to a Brookings study, 45 percent of the men aged 18 to 29 say they face discrimination as men. According to a Pew poll, 38 percent of men who identify as Republican say “women’s gains have come at the expense of men.” As the “mommy party,” the Democrats were sure to invite the wrath of many male voters. Many of these voters were also working-class and many lived in rural areas and small towns, but Harris also lost young men with college degrees—a group that was formerly in the Democratic corner.
To say that the trends described here give the Republicans an edge nationally is not to say that Republicans have acquired a stable, long-term majority. The overall numbers remain close, and presidential elections are likely to be settled by swing states that could go either way. Democrats can win if voters’ fear and dislike of a Republican president or of extreme Republican policies overshadows their misgivings about Democrats. That happened in 2020 and in the 2018 and 2022 congressional elections, and could happen in 2026 and 2028, especially if Trump continues to exceed his popular mandate. Trump’s collaboration with the anti-government libertarian Elon Musk, whose priorities do not mesh with those of many Americans, may prove a liability.
