1/41
@electricfutures
After several delays, @DOGE has finally posted its purported savings. Why did it take so long to create a simple webpage with a 1000-row table? Who knows! Let's dig in.
Headline number: $55B saved. They list the savings per nixed contract. This should be easy to verify then.
[Quoted tweet]
It's Monday. @DOGE is the laziest, most overpaid bunch of incompetent, unelected bureaucrats we've ever seen.
2/41
@electricfutures
The first thing I did is add up the "saved" column for all canceled contracts and real estate. The numbers are $16.5B and $0.14B, respectively. Odd...
Since almost all of the purported savings come from contracts, we'll focus on that.
2/
3/41
@electricfutures
The single biggest ticket item is a DHS contract listed as saving $8 billion. Wow, that's a huge contract!
Actually no, it's $8 million. They must have tried to automate scraping the FPDS form and failed.
That means we're down to $8.5B in savings.
3/
4/41
@electricfutures
The next 3 biggest ticket items are all USAID contracts listed as $655M each, so $2B total. Wow, pretty big.
Wait, these are IDVs, not contracts. $655M is the entire set-aside, being triple counted. In the first 5 years, only $73M was awarded, and only 2 years remain.
4/
5/41
@electricfutures
So we're down to $6.5B in savings, and an alarming trend emerges: @DOGE does not seem to understand how the government contracts they are canceling work. The savings they are claiming are not annual savings, but rather hypothetical savings if we spent every unobligated penny.
5/
6/41
@electricfutures
And more importantly, they are just getting it *wrong*, with alarming consistency. These numbers are erroneous. This "select group of geniuses" has not double checked even the LARGEST items accounting for the bulk of their claimed savings. This is a sad, pathetic farce
@elonmusk
7/41
@electricfutures
Here's the next biggest item: an IT services contract for the Social Security Administration worth $1B. That's a lot of savings!
Well, again, this contract spanned 6 years. 80% has already been spent. Ah well, more like $240M in savings spread over the next 3 years. $80M/year.
8/41
@electricfutures
In 2023, this contract funded 1000 FTEs working $100/hr. Did we need 1000 SWEs working on SSA infrastructure? Probably not - these could be valid savings (disclaimer: no idea what they actually did). But worth noting that these cuts will impact many private sector jobs as well.
9/41
@electricfutures
And if anyone is curious, there are currently 17 lines that say "SEE FPDS" rather than the savings amount, I guess because their automated scraping failed. I did it manually and it took roughly ~10 minutes. But that's too much to ask of super geniuses working 120 hours/week!
10/41
@DearLeftyFriend
Missing context:
11/41
@electricfutures
Congratulations, you scrolled infinitely far back in my replies and found an instance of me using logic to help someone understand the difference between communism and Democratic socialism
12/41
@tarakeshwar
You paid X to boost this tweet right
13/41
@electricfutures
Nope. @fukkyouiquit retweeted it and it went viral. I will never pay this site a fukking penny.
14/41
@pamdebear632
If you are so good at this, why did YOU not look into trying to root out waste in the govt? Is DOGE to be condemned bc during their attempt to find waste, they discovered fraud? We gotta start somewhere clawing back.
15/41
@electricfutures
If they paid me $14M they paid DOGE I guarantee you I would do an infinitely better job.
16/41
@LanceBybee
The gov can’t just cancel a contract without being liable for costs and expenses incurred prior to the cancellation. Most cancellations end up having costs and money spent on the contract, but if it was cancelled, then the government gets nothing return for that expenditure
17/41
@electricfutures
Yep, here is an example of that:
https://nitter.poast.org/electricfutures/status/1891904556767781163
They are not accounting for these honestly at all. It's pretty clear their instructions were something like "pick the biggest number no matter what"
[Quoted tweet]
Here's the next biggest item: an IT services contract for the Social Security Administration worth $1B. That's a lot of savings!
Well, again, this contract spanned 6 years. 80% has already been spent. Ah well, more like $240M in savings spread over the next 3 years. $80M/year.
18/41
@RandTaylor2
Does Elon get a “finders fee”?
19/41
@electricfutures
He doesn't need to be paid because he gets to leverage the position to spread propaganda about & kneecap the agencies regulating his businesses. He's shown repeatedly he has no regard for the truth.
20/41
@SJonNantucket
I doubt your math is correct but also wondering what kind of person is rooting for waste and fraud
21/41
@electricfutures
I'm rooting for the truth.
There isn't much math here. These are very basic accounting errors (or intentional distortions to make the number seem bigger than it really is). I've yet to see any evidence of fraud.
22/41
@GamemasterYado
Elon consistently puts the L in Elon
23/41
@Nljigakulive
If DOGE really wanted to stop wasteful spending they’d go after the DOD/pentagon who have failed their last 7 audits.
24/41
@AstorAaron
This is good stuff. I think we should just call their work "DOGEshytE".
25/41
@barbarikon
They can do this because their target audience can’t read, nor understand numbers.
26/41
@JWSPEED2
Dismantle the whole Federal government and then @DOGE . That'll help.
27/41
@Shaelaran
“Please leave our unelected bureaucrats’ power to spend our taxpayer money alone.” That’s a no homie. I don’t care what breaks. We will see what happens in a year or two
28/41
@Marcusgibson
Why is Elon low-key reposting that bogus DOGE clock based on target not actual ~$55bn?
29/41
@BeasterXP
They have saved 2.75% of their goal in 1 month. This puts them on pace to save 2 Trillion in 36 months. The problem? They are hitting the easiest areas first. It’s going to get harder and harder to find savings. They should be over 30% of their goal to keep a realistic
30/41
@iiliyaa
We all know now why no one wants to claim they’re in charge of DOGE. When things go well, everyone will definitely show up credit, but when it falls apart, suddenly no one will be responsible. Disaster is an orphan!
31/41
@JKLund_Official
Good thread.
I also noticed that the numbers done make sense. How does one get 37.5 billion in savings from 75,000 buyouts?
$500k per govt employee?????
32/41
@br3jjc
Keep chasing…
33/41
@PhotoJouMATT
Did they just cancel the Departmental of Veterans affairs subscription to Dynamed?
34/41
@ajquery
they also have many instances like this
[Quoted tweet]
How can you have savings of $355,931 on a $79,486 contract? claimed total savings of $355,931, for a contract to MID-ATLANTIC SERVICES GROUP, INC. However, the source they provide claims $0 in savings, a contract value of $79,486, and a recipient of FEDERAL MANAGEMENT PARTNERS, LLC.
35/41
@jfeldis
I have been seeing daily savings updates from DOGE on X for the last few weeks
36/41
@NotPhilSledge
How do we know that the $55B figure is accurate, and what measures are in place to verify the savings claimed for each contract?
37/41
@Guruleaks1
unroll @threadreaderapp
38/41
@devahaz
Foreshadowing:
[Quoted tweet]
This DOGE stuff is so unserious. The “no-brainer” $125B savings include $120B that are simply a goal of how much of its spending the govt wants to contract to “socially/economically disadvantaged” small business. Sure get rid of that if you want, but it saves zero dollars.
39/41
@karenvaites
These issues are apparent in the Dept of Education cuts, too, per @jillbarshay’s reporting:
[Quoted tweet]
On DOGE cuts and the DOE:
“It seems unlikely that taxpayers will reap $881 million in savings from the cancellations.”
This is the key insight on DOGE’s cancellations to date. Not only is the claim about the size of the savings overstated, much of that work is apparently going to be re-bid, so “savings” claimed now will vaporize.
Frankly, the savings feels like a lot of smoke and mirrors.
In addition, there is still a fair amount of confusion about what projects are in that $881M in the first place. @jillbarshay gives examples, yet notes the sense of confusion.
40/41
@ChicagoPravda
[Quoted tweet]
DOGE has identified ~0.8% of the budget that can be cut. A decent, experienced financial analyst can find that in an afternoon. And would do so objectively instead of just cherry picking things for political reasons.
When does DOGE actually start doing something impressive?
41/41
@andremessina_
Elon go so rich he can no longer tell the difference between million and billion if it’s right there on the paper.
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