What “stunts”? The UAE is punishing us for not taking their side in their bullying antics. That is not a mistake on our part. That’s bad statesmanship on theirs.
Ethiopia and Eritrea agree to restore relations
- Thread starter Karb
- Start date
What “stunts”? The UAE is punishing us for not taking their side in their bullying antics. That is not a mistake on our part. That’s bad statesmanship on theirs.
thatrapsfan
Superstar
Somalia isnt the only country thats taken a neutral position in the Gulf crisis. Ethiopia itself and Sudan too have taken neutral positions, but have not tried antagonise either side because they know they can still leverage both sides to their benefit ( and have). A goverment with a budget of a small Western municipality, without adminstrative control of any of its cities outside of the capital should *not* be actively engaged in high-risk foreign policy.
The stunts the goverment pulled : 1) Seizure of Emirati money at the Mogadishu Airport: the amount of hard currency going in and out of Mogadishu from all sorts of countries, companies, and individuals is massive, if you ask anyone in the know. This includes Qatari money too. We arent talking about a place with hard customs controls on currency, especially for diplomats or VIPs. So how and why did this incident occur? It was without a doubt 100 percent PR focused propaganda, to justify their position vis-a-vis the UAE.
2) Their rejection of the Berbea Port deal, long after the fact. This was a huge waste of time and energy - the goverment knows full well they have zero authority over what goes on in Berbera Port and they knew full well the deal was well under way ages ago, so what was point of all the antics? What did they get out of it? The port is still being built as we speak, and even more confusingly the government goes ahead and signs a vague port deal with the new Ethiopian PM. This isnt coherent or strategic decison making.
3) The President appointing a former AJA journo as his chief of staff. Its also very likely true that Farmaajo won the vote with Qatari money. Every major candidate got financial backing from all sorts of foreign entities, including his opponents ( Sharmaarke and Sharif likely had UAE backing). That may be the price of the game, but its hard to claim the Gulf position is simply about state sovereignty in that case.
Somalia can leverage a whole lot more out of Emirati interest in the Horn, than they are getting from pretending to command a hypernationalist foreign policy for the diaspora. In any case, in the face of the very new realities in the region, I suspect the government will soon climb down and try to reconcile with the UAE.
The Singularity
Pro
Half a billion
How have the Qataris reacted to Ethiopia and Eritrea restoring relations? The UAE is backing this because they want to divert some traffic away from Djibouti to Eritrea. I remember that qatar was accused of backing eritrean rebels.
Trajan
Veteran
The thing is they actually had leverage. UAE's vision with regard to Ethiopia/Eritrea is not the same as Somalia. We were similar to the Yemen project...balkanization...mercenary forces loyal to the UAE etc. What's there to leverage when someone wants to completely dominate you? They see Ethiopia/Eritrea as legit countries they can deal with as somewhat equals.
We must also remember Somalia initially drew the ire of UAE simply by saying we are neutral (which is obvious since both sides were donors...with Turkey providing more tangible help to the FGS). What would you have done differently?
Trajan
Veteran
Bro these "stunts" ignore Emirati actions. UAE called a meeting of all anti-FGS politicians in Abu Dhabi. All of these politicians then came out denouncing the FGS decision of neutrality and demanded we side with UAE/KSA...they kicked out the Somali entrant in the Quranic competition during Ramadan <---petty...Somali politicians then returned from UAE with cash to foment rebellion. UAE controlled forces raided the house of an influential senator and the govt had to come out and openly deny green lighting the raid...They began an online smear campaign against the Somali govt using Russia like bots on twitter etc
They were openly disrespecting and destabilising the govt. I see the FGS "stunts" as the actions of a weak govt trying to hit back. UAE were playing bully boy in a way they weren't with the Habeshas.
I ask you again, say you run the FGS, what would you do different?
1) Gulf crisis - What do you do? UAE/Saudi, Neutral, Qatar/Turkey
2) Say you chose any of the non-UAE options...how would you react to UAE destabilisation?
This was my point. Can’t be bothered to get into how the Arabs have been moving mad lately.
Yung Pharaoh
All Star
Moody
Faroole ii geeya
Fade Runner 2049
Veteran
I like the name Eritrea 
I like how it sounds
I like how it sounds
thatrapsfan
Superstar
I think this version of the tiff is very much the goverment’s account and that it doesn’t grapple with the provocative actions I recounted above. While I do think it’s true that the UAE tried to sway the government’s position on the Gulf Crisis, I don’t think it meant the deterioration and tit for that that followed was inevitable. I also don’t think it’s accurate to say their vision in Somalia is one of Balkanization ( or even Yemen for that matter). The weakness of the central govt compared to subactors are longstanding conditions in both countries and in neither are they simply the byproduct of Gulf positioning. Domestic politics matters.
If I were the Goverment, I would welcome UAE funding particularly in the ports where they are interested. This type of infrastructure development will pay off in the long run, and there are few international actors willing to spend that sort of money in Somalia. I also don’t think we should completely align with the Turkey/Qatar side, but try to play them off each other - the leverage the government has is both sides are clearly interested in projecting their power ( and spending their money as a result) in the region. On the port issue in particular, Turkey got a long term concession on Mogadishu port awarded to a private company owned by Erdogans son in laws family. Is this inevitably better than a DP World concession? I’m not convinced.
Elle Driver
Veteran
Nice. People in Eritrea still suffering though. Eritrea need a better leader and I wonder what it mean since Afwerki can’t use the Ethiopia boogeyman excuse. He still gon have the people on lock though.
thatrapsfan
Superstar
Again you aren’t really grappling with what I posted, none of the actions I mentioned are inevitable and the idea the conflict escalated independent of the fed govts actions is self serving for it IMO. The Qatari money and Chief of Staff move predates June 2017, and the latter belies the idea the government is as neutral as it claims. The UAE did sway the regional states, but the Government has heavily pushed the idea that all existing Somali divides( everything from Somaliland to Abdishakur to Jawari to Thabit) are simply the byproduct of UAE funding. This to me is extremely simplistic and even a little ironic because it reminds me of what Farmaajo used to say about Ethiopia’s role in meddling while campaigning for the Presidency. He had a 180 u-turn once in power ,and to an extent the pragmatism was called for, but it should be the same for the Gulf.
In any case, you will see a very public climb down that will essentially acknowledge they overreached here. Farmaajo is in Eritrea for three days and I bet you there will be an eliminate of UAE discussion there. Sooner or later, they will adjust their stance and reconcile.
Speaking of abiy how perfect a selection was he? Half oromo half amhara. Muslim father Christian mother.
They frankensteined this nikka wallahi
That’s some common shyt, my Amhara Grandma ended up with a Muslim Oromo so there’s a portion of my family that has Muslim last names. Only religion that didn’t mix in with everyone was Judaism because Ethiopian Jews were damn near quarantined off to themselves.
