Ethiopia and Eritrea agree to restore relations

[Trajan]

I think this version of the tiff is very much the goverment’s account and that it doesn’t grapple with the provocative actions I recounted above. While I do think it’s true that the UAE tried to sway the government’s position on the Gulf Crisis, I don’t think it meant the deterioration and tit for that that followed was inevitable. I also don’t think it’s accurate to say their vision in Somalia is one of Balkanization ( or even Yemen for that matter). The weakness of the central govt compared to subactors are longstanding conditions in both countries and in neither are they simply the byproduct of Gulf positioning. Domestic politics matters.

If I were the Goverment, I would welcome UAE funding particularly in the ports where they are interested. This type of infrastructure development will pay off in the long run, and there are few international actors willing to spend that sort of money in Somalia. I also don’t think we should completely align with the Turkey/Qatar side, but try to play them off each other - the leverage the government has is both sides are clearly interested in projecting their power ( and spending their money as a result) in the region. On the port issue in particular, Turkey got a long term concession on Mogadishu port awarded to a private company owned by Erdogans son in laws family. Is this inevitably better than a DP World concession? I’m not convinced.

Bro calling it ''swaying" sanitises the actions of the UAE following the govt's neutral stance in the crisis. They immediately summoned the anti-FGS regional heads and they all began taking the UAE side and condemned the central govt. That's a gross interference in internal Somali affairs in the best of times let alone a weak govt trying to find its feet. Ex President Sharif was paraded on UAE TV. You had completely unscrupulous and opportunistic politicians like Omar A Sharmarke and Abdishakur plotting to overthrow the govt in plain view with Emirati money.

As far UAE plans for Somalia, we have only to look at Yemen. Both countries are similar in terms of strategic location with ports UAE covets...weak central govts..AQ and other different factions running riot. As you very well know in Yemen UAE runs it's own militia...port and has effectively taken control of the capital city. To the extent that the Yemeni president they claimed to be supporting accused them of colonisation:

EXCLUSIVE: Yemen president says UAE acting like occupiers

In turn they banned him from visiting Aden, a city he's from and is supposed to be presiding over. They occupied Socotra despite the Yemeni govt considering their presence "an act of aggression". When assessing their designs for Somalia I'm just going by their recent track record.

Similarly in Somalia the UAE copped Berbera and began training their own Somali militia around the time they entered Yemen (which have thankfully being disbanded now). We never got to the part where Farmajo is banned from Xamar for disobeying the UAE . The UAE troops raided Qeybdiid with no authorisation from the govt and when there was no beef with him at a sensitive time when the govt were already being accused of targeting the clan Qeybdid belonged to. I don't remember the govt ever blaming UAE for that (if they did I missed it). I like many others surmised that it was a hell of a coincidence if random.

Again you aren’t really grappling with what I posted, none of the actions I mentioned are inevitable and the idea the conflict escalated independent of the fed govts actions is self serving for it IMO. The Qatari money and Chief of Staff move predates June 2017, and the latter belies the idea the government is as neutral as it claims. The UAE did sway the regional states, but the Government has heavily pushed the idea that all existing Somali divides( everything from Somaliland to Abdishakur to Jawari to Thabit) are simply the byproduct of UAE funding. This to me is extremely simplistic and even a little ironic because it reminds me of what Farmaajo used to say about Ethiopia’s role in meddling while campaigning for the Presidency. He had a 180 u-turn once in power ,and to an extent the pragmatism was called for, but it should be the same for the Gulf.

In any case, you will see a very public climb down that will essentially acknowledge they overreached here. Farmaajo is in Eritrea for three days and I bet you there will be an eliminate of UAE discussion there. Sooner or later, they will adjust their stance and reconcile.

As far as Qatari money etc UAE/Saudi also poured money in. Their man lost. The 2017 election was corruption bonanza. That doesn't give UAE the right topple the govt coz it didn't get their way. Even KSA wasn't behaving like that.

If anything despite Qatari money and huge Turkish support over the years the govt still espoused neutrality rather than fully jumping on the Qatari/Turkey axis.

 

[thatrapsfan]

Bro calling it ''swaying" sanitises the actions of the UAE following the govt's neutral stance in the crisis. They immediately summoned the anti-FGS regional heads and they all began taking the UAE side and condemned the central govt. That's a gross interference in internal Somali affairs in the best of times let alone a weak govt trying to find its feet. Ex President Sharif was paraded on UAE TV. You had completely unscrupulous and opportunistic politicians like Omar A Sharmarke and Abdishakur plotting to overthrow the govt in plain view with Emirati money.

As far UAE plans for Somalia, we have only to look at Yemen. Both countries are similar in terms of strategic location with ports UAE covets...weak central govts..AQ and other different factions running riot. As you very well know in Yemen UAE runs it's own militia...port and has effectively taken control of the capital city. To the extent that the Yemeni president they claimed to be supporting accused them of colonisation:

EXCLUSIVE: Yemen president says UAE acting like occupiers

In turn they banned him from visiting Aden, a city he's from and is supposed to be presiding over. They occupied Socotra despite the Yemeni govt considering their presence "an act of aggression". When assessing their designs for Somalia I'm just going by their recent track record.

Similarly in Somalia the UAE copped Berbera and began training their own Somali militia around the time they entered Yemen (which have thankfully being disbanded now). We never got to the part where Farmajo is banned from Xamar for disobeying the UAE . The UAE troops raided Qeybdiid with no authorisation from the govt and when there was no beef with him at a sensitive time when the govt were already being accused of targeting the clan Qeybdid belonged to. I don't remember the govt ever blaming UAE for that (if they did I missed it). I like many others surmised that it was a hell of a coincidence if random.




As far as Qatari money etc UAE/Saudi also poured money in. Their man lost. The 2017 election was corruption bonanza. That doesn't give UAE the right topple the govt coz it didn't get their way. Even KSA wasn't behaving like that.

If anything despite Qatari money and huge Turkish support over the years the govt still espoused neutrality rather than fully jumping on the Qatari/Turkey axis.

Let me preface this by saying we may have to agree to disagree on this one, these long responses are tiring me out

I think the Yemen example may actually prove my point about the underplay of the Qatari side of this equation. Qatar’s primary tool in the GCC war is its information asymmetry. While it grants the media outlets it funds indpendence, they have increasingly more transparently crafted their output to align with Qatar’s line of the day.

This article is a perfect example of this. Half my fam is from Aden, my grandfathers house is still there, I have family living there as we speak. It’s a big mischaracerization of the Yemeni conflict to claim the secessionist cause is an Emirati manufactured one. Hadi ( whos from Abyan not Aden) has been unpopular in Aden for decades. In the 1994 war he was Saleh’s main Southern ally and fought on his side. The outcome of that war has never been fully accepted in the South and in Aden in particular. The Hirak movement was routinely drawing crowds in the hundreds of thousands long before this current war ever started. If a referendum on Yemeni unity ever took place in Aden, the option to secede would win. As well, Hadi became even more unpopular because of his alliance with Islah after he came to power. The latter party is unpopular because of its 1994 stance and because it’s also seen as a vehicle of Northern patronage.

All this to say, that the UAE simply provided international support for the first time to a very popular domestic force. The UAEs aims in Yemen are quite clear and they are to empower a friendly force that is neither MB affiliated (like Islah) or Iran backed ( like the Houthis). The Southern belt simply ticked off that criteria. It’s the same rationale that explains their current support for Saleh’s nephew Tareq.


On the ports in particular, the idea the UAE simply wants to weaken the port potential of nearby countries requires you to ignore its track record in Djibouti and DP World’s track record in particular. Make no mistake DP World is a very credible and capable private enterprise in the port business. Similar to Emirates Airlines, it has the benefit of state financial backing, but it’s operations are widespread and competitive. It’s operations are hardly limited to the UAEs geopolitical reach. See a list of the terminals it works on here: DP World | Marine Ports and Inland Terminals Locations

They operate everywhere from the Netherlands to Rwanda to China to Canada to Brazil. It’s not a Mickey Mouse opération simply limited to politics, and definitely not operating on the principle of diverting traffic to the UAE, otherwise none of the above operations would make sense. The Doraleh Terminal is the most modern port facility in the region by far - and perhaps East Africa period. To take it a step further, compare the Doraleh facilities with the job the private Turkish company has done in Mogadishu and you will see a big gap in ambition and investment. I’m talking strictly in infrastructure terms here. The theory they’re building the Berbera port to limit the potential of rivals isn’t backed by anything credible IMO. It’s a business, that runs like one motivated by the profit motive. None of the ports in question have had modern investment since the Cold War and none of them have seen significant traffic in decades. To me, it’s a no brainer that the investment from a company with a proven track record would be good for each example and I think the years ahead will bolster this position.



I’ll add more on your Somali politics post in later, but I would like you to address these questions: what’s the difference between the UAE funding the Sharmarke’s or Sharif received and the Qatari funding Farmaajo received? Furthermore, what of the appointment of his chief of staff?