mbewane
Knicks: 93 til infinity
TBH that's not really the case, I've never heard/read anywhere that it was Juppé's election to lose. Don't know where the author of the article got this from.
French 2017 Presidential Election - (MACRON WINS)
- Thread starter Scoop
- Start date
TBH that's not really the case, I've never heard/read anywhere that it was Juppé's election to lose. Don't know where the author of the article got this from.
mbewane
Knicks: 93 til infinity
The polls
Nah for real polls are indeed giving Juppé as a winner in the right primary and in a possible confrontation with Le Pen, but otherwise when actually reading political articles and what not no one acts like he's a clear-cut candidate, mostly due to his history and personnality.
Nah for real polls are indeed giving Juppé as a winner in the right primary and in a possible confrontation with Le Pen, but otherwise when actually reading political articles and what not no one acts like he's a clear-cut candidate, mostly due to his history and personnality.
I think Juppe would probably wash Le Pen in the second round, but maybe Le Pen could surprise people and get to 40%? The polls have her in the low to mid 30's in the runoff right now. I know daddy only got 17.8% back in the day when he made it to the runoff.
Of course we could be looking at another Trump/Brexit scenario too
but I think the set up of this race favors a traditional outcome more than the Brexit/Trump races did.
mbewane
Knicks: 93 til infinity
I think Juppe would probably wash Le Pen in the second round, but maybe Le Pen could surprise people and get to 40%? The polls have her in the low to mid 30's in the runoff right now. I know daddy only got 17.8% back in the day when he made it to the runoff.
Of course we could be looking at another Trump/Brexit scenario too
True, that's the traditionnal thinking over here too. Also like I said in some thread, if the run-off is Juppé vs Le Pen people from the Left will vote Juppé to defeat Le Pen, that's what they always do (doesn't hurt that Juppé seems more level-headed and less obsessed by identity politics). BUT in the unlikely event that it's Le Pen vs someone from the Left, people from the Right might vote Le Pen.
So, strangely enough, in this particular election it would prob be better that the Left loses in the first round, because Right voters don't give a fukk and while have no problem voting Extreme-Right to defeat the Left.
Thats what's messed up about all this. The White Nationalists and Jihadi Terrorists benifit from each other gaining more power in their respective settings. They also have the power to help each other by attacking the populations each group claims to be fighting for.
Yep. Both sides will be secretly hoping for a terrorist attack. Something might be brewing and I think I'll avoid Paris for now
French Left’s (complex) operation to stop Marine Le Pen
Left-wingers hope that by backing Alain Juppé, they will see off two political enemies.
By NICHOLAS VINOCUR
11/18/16, 4:01 PM CET
Updated 11/18/16, 5:50 PM CET
PARIS — Thousands of French leftists will hold their noses and vote in a conservative election Sunday for what they see as a greater good: stopping ex-president Nicolas Sarkozy and keeping Marine Le Pen out of the Elysée.
According to several surveys, as many as 15 percent of participants could be left-wing sympathizers — ranging from moderate socialists to lifelong communists — will head to polling stations and vote in the first round of a conservative primary to pick a presidential candidate.
In order to vote, they will all have to stump up €2 and sign a charter stating that they share the “Republican values of the Right and the Center.” Some hands will no doubt tremble before signing and writing down their name and address, as they will be required to do.
But for people like Violette Lacloche, a business owner who has always voted Left, these are exceptional times that call for exceptional measures. Far-right leader Marine Le Pen is within striking distance of the presidency. If Sarkozy wins the conservative primary, she reasons, then he will go on to face Le Pen in the final round of the presidential election next May.
And Sarkozy could lose.
That is not a risk she is willing to take. So, come Sunday, Lacloche will vote for Alain Juppé, a moderate conservative whom she sees as more likely than Sarkozy to prevail over Le Pen in 2017.
“I’d rather not be outed as a conservative voter” — A female left-wing voter
“In 2002, we (left-wingers) voted for Jacques Chirac to stop Jean-Marie Le Pen from becoming president,” said Lacloche, a 39-year-old mother of two. “It’s the same thing this time around, just much sooner … We all know that the presidential election is being played out now.”
Lacloche added that her father and several other lifelong Left voters in her circle also planned to vote on Sunday.
Acceptable compromise
Asked about the charter that all voters will be required to sign, Lacloche admitted she had not read it. When it was read out to her, she said she was relieved.
“There is no problem there,” she said. “It states ‘Republican values’ — and I share those values.”
She added: “In any case, voting is a compromise. Even when I vote socialist I don’t support every single thing they propose, like taxes for instance, which can be against my interest as a business owner. But you vote for others, not just yourself.”
Other left-wingers who replied to an informal survey conducted on Facebook also admitted they had not read the charter but were willing to bend their beliefs slightly in order to ensure that Sarkozy lost in the first round and Juppé went on to the runoff on November 27.
However, only Lacloche was willing to be cited by name. Several others justified their caution by saying that a conservative vote could be held against them in the future — even though lists of voters are not going to be made public.
“I’d rather not be outed as a conservative voter,” said a female left-wing voter who answered the Facebook survey and asked not to be identified.
Prominent socialists and left-wing media personalities are particularly concerned about being seen voting for a conservative. The editor of a left-wing daily, for example, said he was worried about being photographed on his way into a polling station, as he could face accusations of hypocrisy.
Juppé’s blessing
For Nicolas Sarkozy, the target of this left-wing operation, the idea that outsiders should be allowed to influence the primary is a travesty. “I will not let the Left steal this election from you!” he bellowed to a crowd of supporters recently.
“We will have to debrief about this after the election,” said Sarkozy spokesman Catherine Vautrin, adding that there was no way of checking voters’ political credentials at the polls.
“Nicolas Sarkozy is the best opponent for Marine Le Pen in 2017 because of the rejection he suffers from many voters and his many legal troubles” — National Front supporter
No such complaints about interference have come from the Juppé camp. The beneficiary of the left-wing mobilization has all but encouraged his erstwhile rivals to turn out on Sunday, with numerous calls to vote in “as large numbers as possible.”
In a nod to the last time left-wing voters voted for a conservative to keep the far-right out of power, Juppé’s campaign director, Gilles Boyer, replaced his Twitter profile photo with one of Jacques Chirac.
Boyer also tweeted a picture of a €2 coin with the remark “Weapon of mass expression” — hinting that the small sum was all that was keeping any voter from influencing the primary’s outcome.
According to Yves-Marie Cann of the Elabe polling agency, left-wing interest should guarantee a high turnout for the primary on Sunday — another favorable signal for Juppé.
“We will probably see 3-3.5 million voters turn out Sunday,” he said. “This is more than for the left-wing primary in 2012 and shows that people consider this to be a very important election.”
National Front factor
However, left-wingers are not the only ones who plan to crash the conservatives’ party.
Supporters of Marine Le Pen’s National Front are also projected to turn out in droves, with 9 percent of them having expressed an interest in voting, according to Cann.
Front supporters share the same analysis of the primary as the left-wingers, but draw the opposite conclusion: In order for Le Pen to become president, they must help Sarkozy.
“Nicolas Sarkozy is the best opponent for Marine Le Pen in 2017 because of the rejection he suffers from many voters and his many legal troubles,” said one National Front cadre who is close to the party’s president.
In the end, the opposing effects of interference from left-wingers and National Front voters could end up canceling each other out, Cann said.
If that is the case, an unlikely frontrunner may emerge on Sunday: former prime minister François Fillon, who is now emerging as a favorite.
This article has been updated to correct the percentage of participants who could be left-wing sympathizers.
French Left’s (complex) operation to stop Marine Le Pen
Left-wingers hope that by backing Alain Juppé, they will see off two political enemies.
By NICHOLAS VINOCUR
11/18/16, 4:01 PM CET
Updated 11/18/16, 5:50 PM CET
PARIS — Thousands of French leftists will hold their noses and vote in a conservative election Sunday for what they see as a greater good: stopping ex-president Nicolas Sarkozy and keeping Marine Le Pen out of the Elysée.
According to several surveys, as many as 15 percent of participants could be left-wing sympathizers — ranging from moderate socialists to lifelong communists — will head to polling stations and vote in the first round of a conservative primary to pick a presidential candidate.
In order to vote, they will all have to stump up €2 and sign a charter stating that they share the “Republican values of the Right and the Center.” Some hands will no doubt tremble before signing and writing down their name and address, as they will be required to do.
But for people like Violette Lacloche, a business owner who has always voted Left, these are exceptional times that call for exceptional measures. Far-right leader Marine Le Pen is within striking distance of the presidency. If Sarkozy wins the conservative primary, she reasons, then he will go on to face Le Pen in the final round of the presidential election next May.
And Sarkozy could lose.
That is not a risk she is willing to take. So, come Sunday, Lacloche will vote for Alain Juppé, a moderate conservative whom she sees as more likely than Sarkozy to prevail over Le Pen in 2017.
“I’d rather not be outed as a conservative voter” — A female left-wing voter
“In 2002, we (left-wingers) voted for Jacques Chirac to stop Jean-Marie Le Pen from becoming president,” said Lacloche, a 39-year-old mother of two. “It’s the same thing this time around, just much sooner … We all know that the presidential election is being played out now.”
Lacloche added that her father and several other lifelong Left voters in her circle also planned to vote on Sunday.
Acceptable compromise
Asked about the charter that all voters will be required to sign, Lacloche admitted she had not read it. When it was read out to her, she said she was relieved.
“There is no problem there,” she said. “It states ‘Republican values’ — and I share those values.”
She added: “In any case, voting is a compromise. Even when I vote socialist I don’t support every single thing they propose, like taxes for instance, which can be against my interest as a business owner. But you vote for others, not just yourself.”
Other left-wingers who replied to an informal survey conducted on Facebook also admitted they had not read the charter but were willing to bend their beliefs slightly in order to ensure that Sarkozy lost in the first round and Juppé went on to the runoff on November 27.
However, only Lacloche was willing to be cited by name. Several others justified their caution by saying that a conservative vote could be held against them in the future — even though lists of voters are not going to be made public.
“I’d rather not be outed as a conservative voter,” said a female left-wing voter who answered the Facebook survey and asked not to be identified.
Prominent socialists and left-wing media personalities are particularly concerned about being seen voting for a conservative. The editor of a left-wing daily, for example, said he was worried about being photographed on his way into a polling station, as he could face accusations of hypocrisy.
Juppé’s blessing
For Nicolas Sarkozy, the target of this left-wing operation, the idea that outsiders should be allowed to influence the primary is a travesty. “I will not let the Left steal this election from you!” he bellowed to a crowd of supporters recently.
“We will have to debrief about this after the election,” said Sarkozy spokesman Catherine Vautrin, adding that there was no way of checking voters’ political credentials at the polls.
“Nicolas Sarkozy is the best opponent for Marine Le Pen in 2017 because of the rejection he suffers from many voters and his many legal troubles” — National Front supporter
No such complaints about interference have come from the Juppé camp. The beneficiary of the left-wing mobilization has all but encouraged his erstwhile rivals to turn out on Sunday, with numerous calls to vote in “as large numbers as possible.”
In a nod to the last time left-wing voters voted for a conservative to keep the far-right out of power, Juppé’s campaign director, Gilles Boyer, replaced his Twitter profile photo with one of Jacques Chirac.
Boyer also tweeted a picture of a €2 coin with the remark “Weapon of mass expression” — hinting that the small sum was all that was keeping any voter from influencing the primary’s outcome.
According to Yves-Marie Cann of the Elabe polling agency, left-wing interest should guarantee a high turnout for the primary on Sunday — another favorable signal for Juppé.
“We will probably see 3-3.5 million voters turn out Sunday,” he said. “This is more than for the left-wing primary in 2012 and shows that people consider this to be a very important election.”
National Front factor
However, left-wingers are not the only ones who plan to crash the conservatives’ party.
Supporters of Marine Le Pen’s National Front are also projected to turn out in droves, with 9 percent of them having expressed an interest in voting, according to Cann.
Front supporters share the same analysis of the primary as the left-wingers, but draw the opposite conclusion: In order for Le Pen to become president, they must help Sarkozy.
“Nicolas Sarkozy is the best opponent for Marine Le Pen in 2017 because of the rejection he suffers from many voters and his many legal troubles,” said one National Front cadre who is close to the party’s president.
In the end, the opposing effects of interference from left-wingers and National Front voters could end up canceling each other out, Cann said.
If that is the case, an unlikely frontrunner may emerge on Sunday: former prime minister François Fillon, who is now emerging as a favorite.
This article has been updated to correct the percentage of participants who could be left-wing sympathizers.
French Left’s (complex) operation to stop Marine Le Pen
mbewane
Knicks: 93 til infinity
French Left’s (complex) operation to stop Marine Le Pen
Left-wingers hope that by backing Alain Juppé, they will see off two political enemies.
By NICHOLAS VINOCUR
11/18/16, 4:01 PM CET
Updated 11/18/16, 5:50 PM CET
PARIS — Thousands of French leftists will hold their noses and vote in a conservative election Sunday for what they see as a greater good: stopping ex-president Nicolas Sarkozy and keeping Marine Le Pen out of the Elysée.
According to several surveys, as many as 15 percent of participants could be left-wing sympathizers — ranging from moderate socialists to lifelong communists — will head to polling stations and vote in the first round of a conservative primary to pick a presidential candidate.
In order to vote, they will all have to stump up €2 and sign a charter stating that they share the “Republican values of the Right and the Center.” Some hands will no doubt tremble before signing and writing down their name and address, as they will be required to do.
But for people like Violette Lacloche, a business owner who has always voted Left, these are exceptional times that call for exceptional measures. Far-right leader Marine Le Pen is within striking distance of the presidency. If Sarkozy wins the conservative primary, she reasons, then he will go on to face Le Pen in the final round of the presidential election next May.
And Sarkozy could lose.
That is not a risk she is willing to take. So, come Sunday, Lacloche will vote for Alain Juppé, a moderate conservative whom she sees as more likely than Sarkozy to prevail over Le Pen in 2017.
“I’d rather not be outed as a conservative voter” — A female left-wing voter
“In 2002, we (left-wingers) voted for Jacques Chirac to stop Jean-Marie Le Pen from becoming president,” said Lacloche, a 39-year-old mother of two. “It’s the same thing this time around, just much sooner … We all know that the presidential election is being played out now.”
Lacloche added that her father and several other lifelong Left voters in her circle also planned to vote on Sunday.
Acceptable compromise
Asked about the charter that all voters will be required to sign, Lacloche admitted she had not read it. When it was read out to her, she said she was relieved.
“There is no problem there,” she said. “It states ‘Republican values’ — and I share those values.”
She added: “In any case, voting is a compromise. Even when I vote socialist I don’t support every single thing they propose, like taxes for instance, which can be against my interest as a business owner. But you vote for others, not just yourself.”
Other left-wingers who replied to an informal survey conducted on Facebook also admitted they had not read the charter but were willing to bend their beliefs slightly in order to ensure that Sarkozy lost in the first round and Juppé went on to the runoff on November 27.
However, only Lacloche was willing to be cited by name. Several others justified their caution by saying that a conservative vote could be held against them in the future — even though lists of voters are not going to be made public.
“I’d rather not be outed as a conservative voter,” said a female left-wing voter who answered the Facebook survey and asked not to be identified.
Prominent socialists and left-wing media personalities are particularly concerned about being seen voting for a conservative. The editor of a left-wing daily, for example, said he was worried about being photographed on his way into a polling station, as he could face accusations of hypocrisy.
Juppé’s blessing
For Nicolas Sarkozy, the target of this left-wing operation, the idea that outsiders should be allowed to influence the primary is a travesty. “I will not let the Left steal this election from you!” he bellowed to a crowd of supporters recently.
His protest has limited credibility. Sarkozy was president of the Républicains partywhen the primary was being organized. He oversaw the nomination of an official whose role is to guarantee that the primary runs smoothly, and he signed off on the wording of the charter to be signed by voters.
“We will have to debrief about this after the election,” said Sarkozy spokesman Catherine Vautrin, adding that there was no way of checking voters’ political credentials at the polls.
“Nicolas Sarkozy is the best opponent for Marine Le Pen in 2017 because of the rejection he suffers from many voters and his many legal troubles” — National Front supporter
No such complaints about interference have come from the Juppé camp. The beneficiary of the left-wing mobilization has all but encouraged his erstwhile rivals to turn out on Sunday, with numerous calls to vote in “as large numbers as possible.”
In a nod to the last time left-wing voters voted for a conservative to keep the far-right out of power, Juppé’s campaign director, Gilles Boyer, replaced his Twitter profile photo with one of Jacques Chirac.
Boyer also tweeted a picture of a €2 coin with the remark “Weapon of mass expression” — hinting that the small sum was all that was keeping any voter from influencing the primary’s outcome.
According to Yves-Marie Cann of the Elabe polling agency, left-wing interest should guarantee a high turnout for the primary on Sunday — another favorable signal for Juppé.
“We will probably see 3-3.5 million voters turn out Sunday,” he said. “This is more than for the left-wing primary in 2012 and shows that people consider this to be a very important election.”
National Front factor
However, left-wingers are not the only ones who plan to crash the conservatives’ party.
Supporters of Marine Le Pen’s National Front are also projected to turn out in droves, with 9 percent of them having expressed an interest in voting, according to Cann.
Front supporters share the same analysis of the primary as the left-wingers, but draw the opposite conclusion: In order for Le Pen to become president, they must help Sarkozy.
“Nicolas Sarkozy is the best opponent for Marine Le Pen in 2017 because of the rejection he suffers from many voters and his many legal troubles,” said one National Front cadre who is close to the party’s president.
In the end, the opposing effects of interference from left-wingers and National Front voters could end up canceling each other out, Cann said.
If that is the case, an unlikely frontrunner may emerge on Sunday: former prime minister François Fillon, who is now emerging as a favorite.
This article has been updated to correct the percentage of participants who could be left-wing sympathizers.
French Left’s (complex) operation to stop Marine Le Pen
Damn didn't think people from the FN would go to the primary to vote for Sarko, they smart...can't wait to see how the primary plays out
I think you're right, especially if it's Juppe, but some of the head to head polls have her close with Sarkozy and the Socialist candidates.
In round 2 ? I don't think that's possible. In 2016, there's no 23 M french people that'll vote far-right. In a couple of decades possibly, but at the moment, she may only be able to win round 1 but she'll be beaten in round 2.
Highest polls she had in round 1 was 30% (now she's at 25%). If she's against a LR (right) candidate (Juppé, Fillon, Sarkozy), all the left voters and those who didn't vote in round 1 will vote against her without a doubt and she'll max out at that 30. If it's against the Socialists (which is unlikely considering how bad they are at the moment), some voters from the right will go to Le Pen (especially those from Fillon who's close to far right catholics movements ; those of Juppé will massively go to the left and those of Sarkozy will mostly go for the left with a good amount going for Le Pen). Anyway, she's not getting more than a 10% from that. So 40 (which would already be huge) is the max she could do in my opinion. It's still too much but at least, it's not the majority.
In France, there's something called the "sursaut républicain" (republican burst, (republican as in those who believe in the Republic, not the party)) which means that when faced against the far-right, all the moderates (whether left or right) and the far-left usually vote against it. Last regional elections, the FN lost and didn't win one single region because in rounds 2, when faced against a FN candidate, voters decided to systematically vote against them even if leftists had to vote right and rightists had to vote left. And that was considering that in 6 out of 13 regions, FN candidates had first place in round 1. It's not a monolithic burst of course but it means that most won't take the responsibility of lending the country to the far-right.
Élections régionales françaises de 2015 — Wikipédia
In first rounds, FN had an average of 27% voters. In seconds, they stayed at 27% even with almost 1M more votes for them.
Of course, everything may change if some drastic events happen in the mean time but at the moment, I'm certain Le Pen can't possibly win the presidency.
Juppe and Fillon move on to the Republicain primary runoff next week. Sarkozy is out.
Fillon, Juppé knock out Sarkozy in French Right’s primary
Fillon, Juppé knock out Sarkozy in French Right’s primary