mbewane
Knicks: 93 til infinity
Where does this come from?
Where does this come from?
In round 2 ? I don't think that's possible. In 2016, there's no 23 M french people that'll vote far-right. In a couple of decades possibly, but at the moment, she may only be able to win round 1 but she'll be beaten in round 2.
Highest polls she had in round 1 was 30% (now she's at 25%). If she's against a LR (right) candidate (Juppé, Fillon, Sarkozy), all the left voters and those who didn't vote in round 1 will vote against her without a doubt and she'll max out at that 30. If it's against the Socialists (which is unlikely considering how bad they are at the moment), some voters from the right will go to Le Pen (especially those from Fillon who's close to far right catholics movements ; those of Juppé will massively go to the left and those of Sarkozy will mostly go for the left with a good amount going for Le Pen). Anyway, she's not getting more than a 10% from that. So 40 (which would already be huge) is the max she could do in my opinion. It's still too much but at least, it's not the majority.
In France, there's something called the "sursaut républicain" (republican burst, (republican as in those who believe in the Republic, not the party)) which means that when faced against the far-right, all the moderates (whether left or right) and the far-left usually vote against it. Last regional elections, the FN lost and didn't win one single region because in rounds 2, when faced against a FN candidate, voters decided to systematically vote against them even if leftists had to vote right and rightists had to vote left. And that was considering that in 6 out of 13 regions, FN candidates had first place in round 1. It's not a monolithic burst of course but it means that most won't take the responsibility of lending the country to the far-right.
Élections régionales françaises de 2015 — Wikipédia
In first rounds, FN had an average of 27% voters. In seconds, they stayed at 27% even with almost 1M more votes for them.
Of course, everything may change if some drastic events happen in the mean time but at the moment, I'm certain Le Pen can't possibly win the presidency.
Sarkozy outJuppe and Fillon move on to the Republicain primary runoff next week. Sarkozy is out.
Fillon, Juppé knock out Sarkozy in French Right’s primary
Yep. Both sides will be secretly hoping for a terrorist attack. Something might be brewing and I think I'll avoid Paris for now
I'm in Bordeaux right now.
If you're interested in history you could check out this museum, it has a (small) section on the role of Bordeaux in slavery : Modern era | Le site officiel du musée d'Aquitaine
When I was in Paris last year, I rode the metro out to Bobigny one day, which is where some of the Paris attackers were hiding, and you can see the Muslim problem in Paris/France in general right there. Right away you can feel the poverty, and the lack of choices for people who live there, esp. immigrants, and now, if this woman is elected, they will feel more oppressed, and have the ability to radicalize people easier. It will be the same in the US, under the new admin.
Above all, the political establishment is despised. The approval ratings of President François Hollande recently hit an astonishing low of 4 per cent.