French 2017 Presidential Election - (MACRON WINS)
- Thread starter Scoop
- Start date
It was in reply to the following, "Strangely enough, Le Pen's strategy of showcasing the Front National as a "normal" party even works with its opponents : even they seem to not see the urgency to vote against her. Right now I'm quite worried that a lot of people won't vote for Macron. I sincerely hope I'm wrong though." I think after Brexit and Trump people will learn to set aside their differences to defeat a common enemy.Thx for the link breh but...not really sure what your point is
TLDR : It's impossible that Le Pen wins this.
I really don't get why people are so scared of this second round to be honest. It was the same in 2002 and even if JM Le Pen had way less legitimacy, the result was obvious. As you accurately stated low participation is the only reason the FN can rise (not necessarily win), a high number is always detrimental to them because they supporters are faithful but are limited in number. So to sway their percentage, they indeed need a low number of total votes so they can raise their stock relatively speaking. In 2002 when FN managed to get in the second round, the participation was at 71% and rose 9 points in the second round. 80% is usually where we max out in the 2nd round since 1995 (except in 2007 because of fresh heads, we topped at 83). Before 1995, numbers in the 2nd were even higher.
It's possible that some won't vote for Macron for legit reasons. Myself I already stated that I don't like him though he did say some interesting things in the campaign but that's all. That said, mechanically, Le Pen just can't get half the votes :
- First, she didn't win the 1st round which I thought she could but she peaked way too early and lost momentum. People voted at 77% in the first round, which is relatively high and usually this number rises in the second round but it's not a given. At 80% participants, 50% is 18M votes. Macron already did 24% and Le Pen 21% which is respectively 8.5M and 7.5M so a head start for Macron of 1M people. At 80% participants, he then needs to convince less people than Le Pen.
- Second, even if some people think that the political spectrum is a circle and that there are connexions between the far left and the far right. In practice, the ends are opposite most of the times. Therefore, on average for a far left voter, Macron will still be closer than a Le Pen and that will be true for any voter than is from far left to moderate right (considering that even Fillon which is classified in very conservative, neo liberal breh called to vote for Macron, but for the sake of the argument, let's say this type may flock to Le Pen). which is the majority. So Macron starts with a bigger reservoir of first-hand votes than Le Pen and also has a bigger reservoir of second-hand votes (even if they will peg their noses to vote for him).
- Third, historically, FN is "taboo". Even if MLP managed to successfully smoothen its image in 2017, she still slips from time to time. Even if the current gen never experienced the hard image of his father and the likes of Gollnish or Mégret which were despicable, they still have the "feeling" that FN is far from being a good thing to vote for. That's the reason why historically, the "Front Républicain" is symbolically called when FN is at the second round of an election. It has weakened since the late 2000s but it's still something that the majority of losers of the first rounds of any elections accept to call for their supporters to do. Which means that even those that vote right may chose to vote for Macron just because their dignity can't accept to be the culprits that elected FN as leader of the Nation.
All that makes it impossible for Le Pen, not only to get 18M votes but to garner more second-hand votes from Macron (whom she's already trailing behind). I would have understood (a little) the worries if the roles were reversed and Le Pen was at 24 and Macron at 21. But in the current configuration I just don't understand why people are scared. It's not over confidence from my end because we're never safe from fukkery but it's impossible for her to get 10.5M votes more than what she managed to do in the first.
Realistically, she may get around 14M votes which is huge honestly (but not guaranteed). With this number of votes, she'll need the super low number of 28M voters to win which would make the participation level at... 62% ! Which would be new record low... from 1969 at 6% lower from the previous mark. A 15 points drop from the 1st round would mean 7M less voters which makes no sense.
Menelik II
I wanna see receipts!
Le Pen just stepped down!
Hamon had two problems :
- He has no charisma
- Hollande was disastrous and it meant that anybody from PS (Valls first) had no chance of winning that one
IMO, when Hamon was at 15%, he should have made some concessions towards Melenchon so he could ride for him because as the candidate of the PS, Hamon could absolutely not ride under Méluche. It would have simply meant the death of the PS.
He does have a party but he doesn't have any elected from it thought it's kinda logical as te party is new.
From what I read about En Marche, it really fishes from communists to gaullists with a true core of socialists and centrists lol. Makes no sense to me but I salute the hustle
When he's elected, it'll be fun to see if PS goes into a coma from politicians leaving it and integrating into Front de Gauche or En Marche. I don't think it will but with Front de Gauche and En Marche eating it from the left and right, PS is truly in the danger zone. I think they will mostly ride with him so I don't see it ending but man they will eat crows during 5 years. I couldn't imagine our president no to be PS or Républicains, it's crazy to think about it. As if the president of the US could not be a Dem or a Repub
thatrapsfan
Superstar
Nope its a political stunt. Shes still running in the second round. This is actually an act of desperation, more than anything. She knows the FN brand can't win in a head-to-head election.Le Pen just stepped down!
Nah, she just stepped down from FN's presidence lol. Which is smart from her end.Le Pen just stepped down!
African Peasant
Veteran
Hamon had two problems :
- He has no charisma
- Hollande was disastrous and it meant that anybody from PS (Valls first) had no chance of winning that one
IMO, when Hamon was at 15%, he should have made some concessions towards Melenchon so he could ride for him because as the candidate of the PS, Hamon could absolutely not ride under Méluche. It would have simply meant the death of the PS.
He does have a party but he doesn't have any elected from it thought it's kinda logical as te party is new.
From what I read about En Marche, it really fishes from communists to gaullists with a true core of socialists and centrists lol. Makes no sense to me but I salute the hustle
When he's elected, it'll be fun to see if PS goes into a coma from politicians leaving it and integrating into Front de Gauche or En Marche. I don't think it will but with Front de Gauche and En Marche eating it from the left and right, PS is truly in the danger zone. I think they will mostly ride with him so I don't see it ending but man they will eat crows during 5 years. I couldn't imagine our president no to be PS or Républicains, it's crazy to think about it. As if the president of the US could not be a Dem or a Repub
En Marche is not yet a party, it's a movement. Now they are about to turn it in a party. They don't have militants or a structure. They will use the socialist party.
African Peasant
Veteran
Hamon had two problems :
- He has no charisma
- Hollande was disastrous and it meant that anybody from PS (Valls first) had no chance of winning that one
IMO, when Hamon was at 15%, he should have made some concessions towards Melenchon so he could ride for him because as the candidate of the PS, Hamon could absolutely not ride under Méluche. It would have simply meant the death of the PS.
He does have a party but he doesn't have any elected from it thought it's kinda logical as te party is new.
From what I read about En Marche, it really fishes from communists to gaullists with a true core of socialists and centrists lol. Makes no sense to me but I salute the hustle
When he's elected, it'll be fun to see if PS goes into a coma from politicians leaving it and integrating into Front de Gauche or En Marche. I don't think it will but with Front de Gauche and En Marche eating it from the left and right, PS is truly in the danger zone. I think they will mostly ride with him so I don't see it ending but man they will eat crows during 5 years. I couldn't imagine our president no to be PS or Républicains, it's crazy to think about it. As if the president of the US could not be a Dem or a Repub
Hamon was created to stop Melanchon...
The PS is dead.
African Peasant
Veteran
2017, LE COUP D’ÉTAT
A good read (with sources) about Macron and his ascension.
The guy looks like the Manchurian candidate.
Unfortunately, it's in french.
A good read (with sources) about Macron and his ascension.
The guy looks like the Manchurian candidate.
Unfortunately, it's in french.
EXCLUSIF. Le "mouvement" de Macron ? En fait, un parti politique très classique
It's indeed a party albeit a micro one :
- It's a 1901 association the same way as any other party
- It's is published in the Journal Officiel like the others
- Its books are validated the the Comité Nationale des Comptes de Campagne like everybody
- In the next elections they will seek public founding like everybody else.
Macron and his allies try to push the "movement" thing but it's only semantics, in reality, the structure of its movement are no different than others parties. They just too new to not have received public funding yet.
thatrapsfan
Superstar
Created
? Like in a lab? Was his resignation as minister in 2014 also part of the long-game? The far-left and far-right share a common love of conspiracy.The PS like many big center-left parties, has been unable to sort contradictions between its left and centrist wing. It's obvious that Hamon won the PS primary as a result of the base's rejection of the latter in the form of Valls.
Heck, while it's been long certain that the PS won't win the election, it was hardly a guarantee that Hamon would under-perform Melenchon until very recently.
African Peasant
Veteran
Created
The PS like many big center-left parties, has been unable to sort contradictions between its left and centrist wing. It's obvious that Hamon won the PS primary as a result of the base's rejection of the latter in the form of Valls.
Heck, while it's been long certain that the PS won't win the election, it was hardly a guarantee that Hamon would under-perform Melenchon until very recently.
I'm talking about his creation as a candidate. Politics is game. Stop being naive. Hamon had no chance since Holland and the PS were burned. He didn't come to win. His candidacy had one purpose : to stop the most left leaning part of the PS electorate to vote for Melanchon.
There is no conspiracy here. It's basic politic game.
Last edited:
African Peasant
Veteran
Yeah you'right.
But they still don't have the bureaucracy of a party. For instance, I personally know a lot of cats who are being groomed as the next candidates of en marche for the next elections when they have no political experience. They are basically taking anyone since the party is an empty shell.
The liberal part (liberal in the european sense) of the PS will join "en marche". En marche is supposed to be the liberal/progressist french party. It's something Segolene Royal tried to do in 2007 with her failed alliance with Bayrou.