I'm in supply chain dealing with the fukkery AMA; Update: Chip shortage until at least 2022
- Thread starter DrBanneker
- Start date
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- Tags
- economy inflation supply chain
DrBanneker
Space is the Place
Yep, few suppliers will commit to bring prices back down. Unless there is a demand collapse or supply glut, these prices are here to stay.
DrBanneker
Space is the Place
damn, i must've not been posting when this thread was made.
i got a couple of things to speak on but first of all props to @DrBanneker for this dope thread.
June 2020 i upgrade my GPU because my unemployment finally came in.
went from a 970 to a 1070
slowly, quarantine life starts to settle in and i tell my girl that i want to build her a PC in the living room so she can use the TV as her monitor.
eventually i convinced her that it was a good investment. got her an i5 9600k, 16 gigs of ddr4 and gave her my old 970.
then around September of 2020 my motherboard died. it had a good run of about 5-6 years.
welp, time to build a new PC! got another i5 9600k and 32 gigs of ddr4 ram.
yo...if this had happened just a few months after it did, i would have been super
i lucked the fukk out. my gpu is over 5 years old and selling for more than double the MSI right now.
crazy.
about the supply chain of the food...
i live in an area of NYS that is popping with farms and cattle, much of the stuff in stores is local.
hopefully that helps me weather the coming storm.
It should but I tell people if they can, have enough food to last 1-2 weeks in case the shortages get bad and things come in slower. I don't see empty shelves of everything but things may not get re-stocked for every other week vs. every few days now.
Vandelay
Life is absurd. Lean into it.
Yeah, I think I mentioned earlier in the thread I manage our pallet vendor relationships for my company. Wood prices came back down, yet one of my locations just quoted me $22 a pallet; 4 times higher than last year. Mind you, we just did a pallet RFP back in January and have contracts in place with all these vendors for substantially lower than that rate.
DetroitEWarren
Veteran
Real talk bro.......................Update: still not back to normal and in some cases (electronics) it is getting worse in some areas. Based on what I have been dealing with here is some advice.
Christmas Shopping: Start now and be done by Halloween latest. Whatever isn't already in port may not make it so stock outs of popular items are going to be permanent. Or get everyone gift cards to buy stuff when it is available
Also, Christmas prices will go up more and more closer to December. Because of the ocean shipping mess everyone is switching to air freight which is more expensive and now getting even more expensive due to demand. They are going to likely have to pass this on.
Below is an image of the anchored ships outside the Port of Long Beach, CA. Just the anchored ones, not the ones arriving. It is congested as hell and not getting better
Car Stuff: If you don't have a car on order with someone, good luck. Used car inventories are still bad and the rental car companies are no longer selling into the used market as much since they can't get a reliable supply of new cars.
1) If you need a car repair, plan on the part possibly not being available or taking 2-6 weeks to arrive. If you don't have to do OEM, aftermarket may (or maybe not) be available or worst case go to the junkyard like back in the day.
2) If you are planning to travel and rent a car, reserve it at least two weeks in advance, 4 weeks in advance for Thanksgiving and Christmas. Inventories are tight and some people who book at the last minute may not get cars
Electronics: We have some stuff going into late 2022 or even 2023 now. If there is a gadget you want, including a phone upgrade, do it now. Even if not available you will be put on the list for when stuff gets in. Grabbing popular stuff right off the shelf is going to be increasingly harder.
Watch out for counterfeits since these are booming with supply issues.
Thanksgiving: I deal with food wholesalers too. Turkey production is down about 1% compared to last year but the bigger deal is the logistics and meat packing capacity. Frozen turkey is going to go up at least 15% this year. Stuffing, cranberry sauce, etc. may have similar issues so since those are shelf stable, might as well grab them now. Pre-order a turkey maybe too, especially if you want a small one.Consumer Reports just did an article on this too:
There's No Turkey Shortage. But You Still Should Start Your Thanksgiving Prep Now.
Local turkey/pig/chicken farms may sell direct. It won't be cheap and usually stocks out all the time but it gives you more flexibility.
Heating Bills: I procure natural gas too (go figure). Northeast US/New England is going to likely be fukked this summer, especially if it gets real cold in Jan/Feb. You are competing with pricing for LNG export to Europe and Asia which is much higher than the USA. If your utility allows you to lock in forward rates or shop for someone who can, consider it though make sure your contract doesn't have a clause where they can pass higher prices to you if the provider's hedge blows up.
Hardware Stuff: Comes out of Asia on ships. High volume stuff may be ok but if you need anything specialized I would get it now for any DIY stuff you may want to do.
fukk all y'all working there now, worked there in the past, and will work there in the future
I’m hoping appliances will be good early next year. I need a new fridge and washer and dryer and would prefer to just have it delivered to my home the day I close. If it’s like weeks to months I’m screwed.
My microwave went out, good luck trying to find a 20a/250v fuse
Hijo de luna
Superstar
I am a Financial Analyst for one of the largest steel mills in the US. Not sure how I missed this thread but I'll try to chime in when I get a little free time. shyts definitely crazy and will get much worse
DeeezNuts
All Star
Yea this chip shyt all fukked up.. i preordered an A5 back in July.. these fukks at Audi kept pushing the delivery date.. and then I saw that they are removing some features for the 2022’s… so I cancelled my shyt.. just copped a new 2021 IS 350 F Sport.. wasn’t going take any chances.. inventories are slim and dealers are not budging on prices.. got lucky and found what i wanted in fukkin Wisconsin.. had to fly out there and get it and drive 16 hrs back to the city
buzzkill
All Star
breh i tried to get another monitor for my DIY pc setup, same monitor i had bought for no more than $100-150 a few years ago. Its not even some type of special monitor...
$369 now
shyt is all fukked up
$369 now
shyt is all fukked up
Any of y’all in transportation? Chassis shortages in my city and in places like Chicago got us all like
Add in the i-40 bridge being down and the backlog of containers on the west coast, shyt sucks
Chassis been gone since early Feb 2020. One company allows theirs to be used by anyone and when they need them, they have to get the trailers unloaded at designated companies.
Yards are a mess and the trains are stacked. Speaking of, if these stackers weren't paid so well they would have upped and left. The condition of the yards
We've upped storage fees if you miss the train and have to recreate billing. Loaning out our chassis with increased fees.
You Win Perfect
bow down
if people were really hurting financially or concerned with money christmas shopping will not be a priority. car repair is definitely a necessity for a lot of people. although there is public transportation and other means of getting from point A to point B.Update: still not back to normal and in some cases (electronics) it is getting worse in some areas. Based on what I have been dealing with here is some advice.
Christmas Shopping: Start now and be done by Halloween latest. Whatever isn't already in port may not make it so stock outs of popular items are going to be permanent. Or get everyone gift cards to buy stuff when it is available
Also, Christmas prices will go up more and more closer to December. Because of the ocean shipping mess everyone is switching to air freight which is more expensive and now getting even more expensive due to demand. They are going to likely have to pass this on.
Below is an image of the anchored ships outside the Port of Long Beach, CA. Just the anchored ones, not the ones arriving. It is congested as hell and not getting better
Car Stuff: If you don't have a car on order with someone, good luck. Used car inventories are still bad and the rental car companies are no longer selling into the used market as much since they can't get a reliable supply of new cars.
1) If you need a car repair, plan on the part possibly not being available or taking 2-6 weeks to arrive. If you don't have to do OEM, aftermarket may (or maybe not) be available or worst case go to the junkyard like back in the day.
2) If you are planning to travel and rent a car, reserve it at least two weeks in advance, 4 weeks in advance for Thanksgiving and Christmas. Inventories are tight and some people who book at the last minute may not get cars
Electronics: We have some stuff going into late 2022 or even 2023 now. If there is a gadget you want, including a phone upgrade, do it now. Even if not available you will be put on the list for when stuff gets in. Grabbing popular stuff right off the shelf is going to be increasingly harder.
Watch out for counterfeits since these are booming with supply issues.
Thanksgiving: I deal with food wholesalers too. Turkey production is down about 1% compared to last year but the bigger deal is the logistics and meat packing capacity. Frozen turkey is going to go up at least 15% this year. Stuffing, cranberry sauce, etc. may have similar issues so since those are shelf stable, might as well grab them now. Pre-order a turkey maybe too, especially if you want a small one.Consumer Reports just did an article on this too:
There's No Turkey Shortage. But You Still Should Start Your Thanksgiving Prep Now.
Local turkey/pig/chicken farms may sell direct. It won't be cheap and usually stocks out all the time but it gives you more flexibility.
Heating Bills: I procure natural gas too (go figure). Northeast US/New England is going to likely be fukked this summer, especially if it gets real cold in Jan/Feb. You are competing with pricing for LNG export to Europe and Asia which is much higher than the USA. If your utility allows you to lock in forward rates or shop for someone who can, consider it though make sure your contract doesn't have a clause where they can pass higher prices to you if the provider's hedge blows up.
Hardware Stuff: Comes out of Asia on ships. High volume stuff may be ok but if you need anything specialized I would get it now for any DIY stuff you may want to do.
eversource has a monopoly in the northeast so there's not much to be done about gas or electricity. and it its always cold in jan/feb its the winter time. anything below 50-60 degrees and the heat gets turned on.