Let's Talk Sweet 16 Predictions

[USSInsiders]

@Absolut your thoughts on this...'reply'

I'm getting my numbers from the massey ratings site btw. Virtually all of the linesmakers lines have been identical to his lines so I'm assuming they're same ones.

Sometimes they're different though because the site doesn't account for injuries at times in other sports.

However, when I compare my lines at my offshore books to the lines posted on his site, I can tell based on the totals and spreads that they're virtually identical to a lot of the numbers the offshore books are using.

I'm using CRIS, so it really doesn't matter what the oddsmakers in vegas are doing because some linesmakers are a little more willing to flex their own line and others just make a carbon copy line of other books.

I can see which games the linesmakers are shading though. Pretty useful.

 

[Poitier]

THat's not how lines are made. Statistically, Tennessee should be favored in this situation, and they are, but the linesmakers know they'll get a lot of Michigan action so they're reducing their exposure by making Michigan the favorite.

Every game is its own entity. I'm not saying Michigan won't win, they have about a 46-48% chance to win. This is a coinflip game from a purely statistical perspective.

Yeah, Mercer was trash, UMASS didn't even belong in the tourney etc. and at "You guys" and "your schedule" I don't give a fukk about tennessee and I can't name a single person on their squad, I'm just looking at the numbers, and they're the real favorite in this game, not Michigan.

Linesmakers are pulling the okey doke. Just cause a couple washed up dudes on ESPN said they're winning isn't my reasoning. Just the weird line, the fact I'm hearing a lot of people saying this game is a lock for Michigan just like -8 was a lock for MSU against Harvard.

I just like to gamble on games to make them interesting.

Your boy @Walt and all the other stat-nerds swear by Kenpom who favors Tenn by one based on statistical models and this is what Kenpom had to say..

I know some of yall like Kenpom and this is what Pomeroy had to say about Tenn-UM:

"I'm really looking forward to that game. Probably more than anyone on the planet. But I think the Vols are going to struggle unless their 3-point shooting improves quite a bit. This is assuming they don't grab 60% of their misses as they did against Mercer."

http://www.reddit.com/r/CollegeBask...i_am_ken_pomeroy_proprietor_of_kenpomcom_and/

 

[USSInsiders]

Your boy @Walt and all the other stat-nerds swear by Kenpom who favors Tenn by one based on statistical models and this is what he had to say..





http://www.reddit.com/r/CollegeBask...i_am_ken_pomeroy_proprietor_of_kenpomcom_and/

Not a stat nerd. I just like to bet where the value is. That's it. I deviate from numbers all the time.

 

[USSInsiders]

Your boy @Walt and all the other stat-nerds swear by Kenpom who favors Tenn by one based on statistical models and this is what Kenpom had to say..





http://www.reddit.com/r/CollegeBask...i_am_ken_pomeroy_proprietor_of_kenpomcom_and/

Btw, of course these numbers aren't always the most reliable of prognosticators, but the point is when you're betting to is you bet where the value is.

Harvard MSU for example. Line was 7.5, 8, 9 in some cases because a lot of money came in on MSU. The game was capped off at 7. I bet Harvard only because I saw it was a huge public play and the line was shaded by two points too much but people kept betting MSU.

The game fell right on 7. Again, these aren't always guarantees of anything, but it makes sense to bet where the value you. The book is putting out the line, but if I'm going to bet the line they give me, I want the side that I perceive as having the most value.

 

[Recca Gatsby]

Florida we comiiiiiiiiiiiin for you nyggaaaaaaaaaaas

 

[We Ready]

Michigan just won the toughest conference in the country this year by a whopping 3 games. Tell me what Tennessee did again?

Big 12 was the #1 RPI conference

 

[Poitier]

Big 12 was the #1 RPI conference

No one uses RPI. Let us see what Kenpom has to say http://kenpom.com/

 

[Absolut]

@Absolut your thoughts on this...'reply'

In the Michigan thread I said they would be real small favorites, and the line came a lil higher than I had it. I make Michigan 1. In regards to his point about lines being shaded higher that doesn't happen very often in "large market" sports like football, hoops, baseball etc because if a line is shaded too high a betting group will come in and bet the value out of it. Lines are way, way more efficient these days. This isn't the days of the niners and cowboys bring 3 points higher than it should be. Books are more than happy letting the public bet into -110 odds, even -105 odds offshore, at truer market price. Books caring about exposure on a side and wanting to balance the money is a huge myth. I don't want even money on both sides. I want huge decisions on games, since the book is getting +110 on the bets. The public can't win enough to offset laying -110. Doesn't kenpom also have Virginia like -3? Problem is his stats don't account for team performance with or without injuries, it's just based on team efficiencies as a whole. That's a huge issue with it. Mich st is way better now. tennessee's kenpom rating has to be entirely dependent on the ass whipping of virginia. they beat a team near the top of his ratings by 35 (scoring 87 on one of the most efficient defenses in the process). take that out, and id imagine they drop considerably

 

[Poitier]

I hope yall boys rooting for the Voulenteers feel confident because I know UM ready for war

 

[heart]

It's crazy that once again Michigan isn't getting any love. Last year they were suppose to lose to VCU, SYRACUSE & Kansas. I have a feeling that over the next few games GRIII will make himself a lot of money shooting up in the draft because he will play great. IF levert plays more aggressive & stuak is knocking down shots nobody will beat them.

Another good key to a long tourney run is point guard play. Walton jr. can play through the press & knock down shots & so can spike. This is a complete team, it doesn't matter at this point because we won't be favored in any game going forward but I believe michigan will cut down the nets in dallas.

 

[Piff Perkins]

I feel bad for people who place faith in the ACC every year. I'm expecting MSU to win.

too bad my bracket is FUBAR in the Coli challenge. fukking Syracuse....

 

[We Ready]

Deal

@Brooklynzson

Make this official

Pay this man


@Poitier @Brooklynzson

 

[Poitier]

Pay this man

@Poitier @Brooklynzson

Idk

 

[Poitier]

@cook @Brooklynzson

These two owe me

@ChefDon 20k Coli Cash
@We Ready 300k Coli Cash

 

[malbaker86]

Stanford
Iowa state
Kentucky
Baylor
UCLA
San Diego state
Tennesee
Michigan state