Polls show that Republican voters
prioritize gun rights over gun controlbut aren’t universally opposed to restrictions on firearms. In fact, most Republicans support
expanding background checks. Most back “red flag” provisions allowing the police to
take guns away from people deemed dangerous by a judge. A majority support
requiring a licenseto purchase a gun.
So with Democrats
calling on the GOP-controlled Senate to take action on gun control in the wake of last weekend’s mass shootings in
El Paso, Texas, and
Dayton, Ohio — in particular, to pass a bill adopted in February by the Democratic-controlled House that would essentially
create universal background checks — will anything happen?
It isn’t impossible. President Trump
suggested in a speech on Mondaythat he would push for “red flag” laws. But Trump has
indicated support for gun control measuresafter previous mass shootings, and
then either backtracked or done littleas the measures failed to move through Congress. And indeed, Republicans in Congress
have blocked every recent attempt to pass major new gun control laws.
Don’t be surprised if that happens again. It’s not that Republican voters are adamantly opposed to gun control, as the data above shows. But the Republican Party as an institution is hostile to gun control measures.
First, guns are tied in with the dominant political identity within the GOP, which muddies the political consequences of backing gun control measures despite the poll results on individual policies. If you’re a Republican elected official, you have to be aware that a vote for some kind of gun control measure (even a popular one) could potentially get you cast as “anti-gun” and broadly “of the left,” in a way that could make you electorally vulnerable.
You can see evidence of this in the more abstract poll questions about gun policy; most Republicans support some specific provisions, but on the general issue, they clearly fall on the side of gun rights: