it rates about even as it stands imo. those football outsiders numbers id assume use the conversion rate of all fg's from that distance, when only center fgs should be in the equation not kicks from the hash. also its reasonable to assume kickers get better, since there will be dedicated practice from that spot. coaches will take the more conservative approach (kicking the PAT) much more often than going for 2 and risk getting lambasted by media and fans that dont know any better if the 2 pointer fails