Nate Silver taking a victory lap on Twitter like 538 didn't have Biden winning 350 EVs, Dems picking up Maine + NC in the Senate and also winning 240 seats in the House
Do be fair, the only states they projected wrong in the presidential race were Florida and North Carolina. And they said the margins were so thin that even just a normal-sized polling error would erase both of those plus Georgia and Arizona and make Biden's victory dependent on winning Pennsylvania by 1.7%.
Said the most likely Senate outcome for Dems was 51 seats, but that the 80% range was between 48 seats and 55 seats. 3/4 chance of Democrats getting control and 1/4 chance of Republicans maintaining control.
Maine was just a 59% chance so that's damn near 50-50. North Carolina was a bit worse, he had that at 68%, but that's still closer to 50-50 than to a sure thing. That's what y'all got to understand about statistical predictions - if he predicts 59% and is right every time then it's actually a BAD prediction, cause that shows it should have been 99%. When he predicts 59%, you really got to believe that it will only go that way 3 in 5 times.
To tell you the truth, the #1 state I'm pissed about is Wisconsin (and to a lesser extent Michigan). How the fukk were they so close? What was going on there?